It may be a military solution to Irans problems

Can the West to stop Iran's nuclear program by force? You can be sure Tehran to abandon his own?

I think the answer is no, to both questions. Approximately Iran can obtain nuclear weapon (bomb), not earlier than 2015. In 2020, he was able to put a limited nuclear strikes. For Europe, the U.S., this is not dangerous. Iran has long fails to make an intercontinental ballistic missile. It will be equally develop their own potential — following the example of India and Pakistan, to exclude the possibility of a large-scale offensive against him. Tales of some commentators that, as Iran acquires nuclear weapons, he immediately uses it against Israel or Saudi full of crap.

Iran's elite fully culpable for their logic in the first place, all the anti-Israeli slogans based on the weight. Their nuclear programm completely defensive character, Tehran does not want to repeat the fate of Yugoslavia in 1999, Iraq in 2003. Status of nuclear power will give them the impetus to achieve the position of a regional superpower, a favorite of the Islamic world.

Scenarios for a military operation

Israeli strike

According to estimates of professionals, Tel Aviv is able to hit about half of the Iranian nuclear sites, 18 out of 35. And seriously damage the military and economic infrastructure of the country. But in-1's, Iran will be able to get his own strike missiles (such as "Shahab-3" with a blast radius of 2000 km, filled with multiple warheads, and in-2-paramilitary forces storm the Lebanese Shiite party "Hezbollah". A All the main victims will be in vain, Israel is not able to disrupt Iran's nuclear program, only delay the inevitable for a couple of years. use of nuclear weapons by Israel is unlikely to be — it's a weapon for self-defense.

Operation USA

Full air strike

The Pentagon will be able to kill all of the nuclear facilities in Iran, if he agreed to a certain percentage of losses. And if you want even able to kill the entire industrial capacity, the entire infrastructure of Iran, turning it into a type of government in Somalia. But Obama will not do it, it will spoil his image of "peacemaker", and of the international society does not approve of, especially China — it is important for the supply of Iranian oil.

Limited air strike

Partial operation will not bring the same of success, Iran will be able to return to their capacity, will work on the bugs, will build objects still deep in the earth and the mountains.

Ground operation

Unlikely that the Iranian army and the people do not love the United States, is considered a stronghold of "Evil", the bribery of the generals is not feasible, as in Iraq. And join in direct combat with the Iranian army, even with complete domination in the air — this is a huge loss, the Americans will not do. Huge loss in the modern world, are willing to put a ground operation only China and our homeland, but they have nothing to share with Iran.

"Color Revolution"

This scenario is more affordable, the first attempt in 2009, Tehran was able to put down. Now seems to be the second, a wave that lifted in Tunisia and Egypt, will try to drown the regime. It all depends on the hardness of the Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, if he shows the hardness (example Lukashenko) and disperse the demonstrators (maybe even with the use of military weapons), and then identify channels of influence, will show trials of "p-revolutionaries." Parallel conducting real measures to improve the lives of the lower classes of society, then stand. If you give up, then Iran is waiting for liberalization, but the people of a better life will not end up back the Islamists will gain popularity and likely have an Islamic revolution.

Our homeland

Our homeland has diplomatic method to restrain the desire of the West to carry out a military operation. We do not want to destabilize the situation in the Caspian region. It is better to get out of the sanctions regime against Iran, and to conduct comprehensive scientific, gallakticheskoe, industrial, military cooperation, becoming a strategic partner of Iran — it is profitable and Iran, and to us. Nuclear programm Iran — is it an internal matter, he has the right to self-defense.

Like this post? Please share to your friends: