Last week the State Duma did not dare to consider the draft budget for 2013 and the planning period of 2014-2015, which was received at the end of September. And no wonder, because the bill was left "unfinished" — the budget came in the form in which it entered the Kremlin, after which he criticized President Vladimir Putin. Therefore, as announced earlier this week, the State Duma are going to pass a bill with only the presidential amendments to be made in the second reading. The source of the "United Russia" said that work on the budget to be a lot, the main thing was to make it as soon as possible, and only then think about the quality. And here, have probably now thinking what to do next.
Because the quality of the document is poor, even with all the failures of the Putin government budgets of previous years. Deputy of the State Duma, the Communist Party leader Gennady Zyuganov said that the federal budget has long been "properly not considered." "There will now be a new budget. Everything connected with the regions, health, education, production is cut almost $ 800 billion, although received 2 trillion windfall. Again hiding funds in U.S., European banks, "- says Zyuganov.
Under the project, the expected revenues of the federal budget in 2013 to 12.8 trillion rubles, the cost is estimated at $ 13.3 trillion rubles. Thus a budget deficit of 521.4 billion rubles.
According to President of Industrial Union "New Commonwealth" Konstantin Babkin, widely touted by the authorities "social orientation" in the budget solved very original way: less spending on agriculture, less — on the industry and promised to increase the salaries of state employees. "However, the money for it is not enough, so the salary will increase by reducing the number of budget places, firing of teachers and doctors. Such "social" orientation will degradation of education, the destruction of existing production and, consequently, social disruption, "- says Babkin.
In addition, the draft budget is the idea of raising the excise tax on fuel production and to increase taxes on mining. Thus, we are again in the market expects higher prices of energy resources. According to experts, due to the "continued sucking juices from the production and citizens." Therefore, in Russia again will not be able to develop any other production, except for the "economy of the pipe."
More analyze budget item "SP" asked a senior analyst "Rick-Trust" Vladislav Zhukovsky.
— Before proceeding to the analysis of the budget directly, so actively Pushes Liberal government of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, would be worth a couple of words about the basic assumptions on which the draft budget for the next three years. Frankly utopian and unattainable look basic macroeconomic indicators, on which the government offers a start in planning and depending on which is placed the entire fiscal system in Russia.
Completely unclear on what basis such predictions government expects average growth rates of the Russian economy in the amount of 4.2% and industrial production growth at around 3.7%. If by the end of this year, the growth rate of the Russian economy, even at the official macroeconomic forecast to fall to 2.2-2.4%. In other words, right now before our eyes is not just a slowdown in economic growth and the decay of business in Russia, and the collapse of the radical, which can not prevent even the consistently high prices for oil and other raw materials.
"SP": — What are the rates of economic growth, Russia needs to improve the social situation in the country?
— Back in 2005, Russia's best macroeconomists and RAS scientists came to the conclusion that the conditions prevailing in Russia colossal property differentiation of the population to maintain social stability in the Russian economy should grow by at least 5.5% per year. But since then, the social chasm only expanded: According to official data of Rosstat gap in pay — 10% of the richest and poorest 10% of social security is 16 times. And, taking into account income from capital and entrepreneurship, as well as hidden sources (crime, corruption, and so on), the social divide Russia in general and with catastrophic 110 times.
"SP": — And the current deceleration of the economy will make the gap even more?
— Of course, because the budget forecast for the growth of real incomes looks completely unworkable. Government projections (including significant underestimation of inflation), the increase in income should vary in the range of 4-5%. However, the draft budget for 2011, officials have also promised to provide the standard of living of the population growth of 3-4%. But in the end, in January — August of last year, according to official Rosstat incomes have not grown and shrunk by 0.5-2%. It was only thanks to the election of the economy pumping 3.5 trillion, in recent months has made the slight growth in living standards by 0.8% this year. Such a low rate of income growth in Russia was not observed as much from default in 1998, which clearly suggests that even sustained high oil prices are no longer able to pull a Russian "economy pipe."
"SP": — In general, the income "pipe-work." So, Putin will not be happy again?
— Sign became very public criticism of the government by Medvedev and Putin's unprecedented for many years president of the imposition of a reprimand to the right of three ministers. However, any positive changes in the budget, according to statements made by senior members of the cabinet, did not happen. First, it publicly stated Finance Minister Anton Siluanov, who made it clear that even after the public criticism of the funding of the national economy, science and education will be a residual. With funding of presidential promises will come from so-called "fiscal space", in practice, means simply a distraction from the budget of other vital areas. In other words, the Liberal government Medvedev continued implementation of fiscal policy ousted Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin on "wasting" petrodollars coming into the country and exported abroad reserves.
"SP": — But with this place — about the health, education and culture — please detail.
— First of all, in the eye catches the most radical in the last eleven years the reduction of health care financing — by 26.9% (from 494.3 to 361 billion rubles), Utilities — by 27.5% (from 139.9 to 101.3 billion) , Physical Education and Sports — by 35.7% (from 51.2 to 32.9 billion). Also, more than 5.45% and reduced funding for science education (605.6 to 572.6 billion rubles), which clearly reflects the true nature of the promises of the authorities in relation to modernization and innovation. It is for this reason that Russian modernization has been reduced to digging up a potato field in the offshore near Moscow, replacing the light bulbs in the hallways and the invention of the obsolete "chubridera" for 20 rubles ("Russian" tablet for students from the Western parts — the invention of Rusnano head Anatoly Chubais — ca . ed.). True, a subtle increase in government spending is expected to be a culture (by 3.21%) and the environment (6.1%). However, due to the ridiculous amount of funds allocated by the state for these purposes (91.3 and 24.9 billion, respectively), this "drop in the bucket" in more of a mockery than an attempt to solve the problem of cultural decline and the terrible environmental situation in the country.
"SP": — Perhaps the money saved went to the Russian economy, pardon the pun?
— Nothing like that, in the next three years is to be reduced an already inadequately low costs on the economy by 1.67% — from 1.68 to 1.65 trillion rubles. Despite the fact that spending on support for domestic producers, agriculture, high-tech industries of high conversion barely reaches 3.3% of GDP, and with the regional budget — 6.7% of GDP. Whereas our potential strategic rivals — the U.S., EU and Japan, to finance the national economy stands about 13-15% of GDP. So it is not surprising that the average growth rate of exports to Russia by 3-4 times higher than the growth of manufacturing and the share of production of the foreign multinational companies account for 65% of domestic food, 85% and 90-95% of the pharmaceutical market of electronics, home appliances and high-tech equipment.
"SP": — So where will cost money?
— It is clear that the Russian authorities have embarked on appeasement of security agencies and increasing financial support to law enforcement agencies, are increasingly perceived by the public as a "retaliatory forces." During the 2013-2015 period, federal budget expenditures "for national defense" to grow by 5.89% (from 1007 to 1066 billion), and funding of national security and law enforcement agencies to increase by 4.86% (from 1.59 to 1 , 66 trillion. rubles). Apparently, Russia's corrupt officials are well aware of the failure of the country's ongoing economic and social policy, and for this reason, expanding funding of security agencies, which, in their view, should ensure the security of the regime in terms of social protest and discontent of the masses. Thus, a significant expansion of budget financing is observed only in the direction of law enforcement agencies and "punitive structures" of the Ministry of Defence. It is clear that the proposed government budget has a pronounced reactionary.
Photo: RIA Novosti / Alexei Druzhinin