Approximation August causing economists willies. Appointed on August 2, "hour X", the occurrence of which the United States would be unable to meet its debts and, logically, will be forced to declare a technical default, approaching at a speed of an express train.
If on this auspicious day of the American national debt ceiling is not raised and the printing press starts printing a new batch of dollars to pay the bills, not be good throughout the world economy.
Even U.S. technical default can trigger global economic chaos because for many years the dollar is sort of a standard cost of everything. U.S. insolvency disorienting world currency, financial and commodity markets. Most likely, it will be expressed in the swift fall of the dollar value of the fixed assets. Then will come the turn of the fall in oil prices, real estate, etc., and as a consequence — the growth of just falling dollar.
What is happening is accompanied by massive bankruptcies of companies and banks, a wave of unemployment and social unrest around the world. In a rather complex situation may be the state, with significant dollar reserves, including Russia and China.
However, all this is only predictions. How will the situation today does not tell anybody. According to some reports, in the event of failure of Congress to raise debt ceiling U.S. financial authorities, mobilizing available resources, can delay the onset of default until August 10-15. But even if this "extra time" way out will be found, the credibility of the U.S. financial system will be considerably undermined. From which arises a single conclusion: all the issues with higher debt ceiling should be resolved before August 2.
Until very recently, no one in doubt that Congress can easily meet the deadline. Today, many so sure anymore. This is reflected in the wave of selling in world markets and withdrawal of capital in gold and other eternal values. Not so long ago it was reported that some major banks began to accumulate cash, fearing a possible influx of frightened depositors.
The fact that the situation starts to get pretty serious, and some evidence of leakage from the official structures USA. Allegedly, in the coming days, the U.S. Treasury will publish an action plan in case of failure of Congress to raise debt ceiling before August 2. The idea is very simple and involves taking the necessary decision to bypass Congress president.
Let Obama raise debt limit, simply by issuing its own ruling on the basis of the 14th Amendment to the Constitution, quoted by The Washington Times Democratic Congressman James I.Klayberna. In the amendment, according to the MP said: "The validity of the public debt of the United States can not be questioned."
However, the paper itself does not share the Cliburn. Such a decision is beyond the scope of authority Obama, says the publication. The amendment does not imply that the debt authorized by executive orders or its decree. It authorized by law, and all legislative power is vested in Congress. This means that the president is unable to resolve the issue, bypassing parliament.
However, the U.S. president is not likely to have to act contrary to the law. Both Democrats and Republicans are well aware of the consequences that can lead to their unnecessary persistence. Their integrity will not cost a penny, if by her millions of American voters will join the ranks of unemployed, and the world will fall into a prolonged crisis.
Given the weakness of the position of the Democrats, the Republican proposal to raise the debt ceiling by $ 900 billion in exchange for budget cuts can be made. This would mean that the risk of default is removed, and will certainly result in a sharp increase in the markets. However, this victory has no strategic value. Raising debt ceiling by $ 900 billion, much less than the requested amount of Obama, the risk that the current problem is exactly repeated in 2012, right before the presidential election. Against this background, the growing political and economic uncertainty will push the rating agencies in their determination to deprive the U.S. of the highest credit rating.
All this and more will contribute to the weakening of the American economy and prevent a much-needed U.S. fiscal consolidation.
Period of August 2-3 was more or less calm, but nevertheless, the preparations for a default is still in full swing. No matter how well you are not versed in politics and finance in the coming times the best solution is to install a gate so tight! Some will be expensive for the automatic, but someone sgodyatsya and ordinary — the main thing to protect their own.