Interview with the vice-president of the International Academy of Sciences, President GNFE, professor, doctor of geological-mineralogical sciences Elchin Khalilov

Interview with the vice-president of the International Academy of Sciences, President GNFE, professor, doctor of geological-mineralogical sciences Elchin KhalilovJune 9, 2010. Since 2010, our planet intensified many natural disasters: earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods, landslides, huge gaps, etc. This fact should disturb as ordinary people and governments around the world.

Kazakhstan Today agency requested comment on the situation of the famous scientist in the field of seismology and geodynamics, председателяМеждународного Committee on Global Change subsurface GEOCHANGE (London), Vice-President of the International Academy of Sciences, President GNFE, professor, doctor of geological-mineralogical sciences Elchin Khalilov.

Kazakhstan Today: Dear Professor, along with the view of strengthening natural disaster, some scientists have expressed the view that there is no gain, and natural disasters occur within the normal background level. What does happen in reality?

E.Khalilov: Of course, everyone is entitled to their own opinion. But any serious statement of scientists should be based on hard facts and evidence, otherwise, it is nothing more than a guess. The International Committee GEOCHANGE prepared a first report on global changes of the geological environment, which is now published by international publishing house in London SWB. Report of over 150 pages, is divided into six chapters: "The economics of natural disasters", "Lithosphere", "Hydrosphere", "Atmosphere", "Geophysical and space factors", "Conclusions and prospects."

The report provides compelling evidence to support a significant increase in the activity of natural disasters in all spheres of the Earth — in the lithosphere, in water and in the atmosphere, and the disturbing changes in geophysical scientists and indicators, covering the solar system.

Report of the international committee based not only on the statement of facts — this is a deep and thorough analysis of statistical and other key indicators of natural disasters around the world, including: earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, floods, tornadoes, hurricanes, changes in sea levels, forest fires and other .

I want to give some eloquent quote from that report:

— Over the past 10 years from the catastrophic earthquake killed 42% more people than the previous 50 years;

— Over the past decade, the number of deaths during strong earthquakes in the world increased by 8.6 times compared with the average values per decade during the past 50 years;

— Over the past five years, the economic damage from flooding in the United States exceeded the total economic loss in the previous 20 years;

— In the first five months of 2010, the number of volcanic eruptions of the world exceeded the average, the annual number of volcanic eruptions in the past 150 years;

— Over the past decade, the tsunami killed tens of times more people than in the past 100 years;

— Over the past five years, the number of floods in the world has more than doubled over the previous five years.

— From 1990 to 2003, the rate of movement (drift) of the north magnetic pole abruptly increased more than 500% for the first time in 100 years of observations. Let me remind you that the Earth's magnetic field is formed at its core, and as a huge acceleration of the magnetic poles indicates an increase in energy processes at the core of our planet.

— In 1998, the U.S. National Aerospace Agency NASA has registered with the help of special satellites abnormally high change the so-called coefficient of J2. NASA experts were at a loss, saying that if the satellites until 1998 registered a steady decrease in the radius of the Earth at the equator and an increase in the poles, then in 1998 this trend sharply reversed. That is, the earth began to expand in the area of the equator and the poles in the areas of contract. It was quite an unusual leap in changing the form of the Earth, and have not found a clear answer about the compelling reasons for this phenomenon.

Meanwhile, the report of the International Committee GEOCHANGE will be released the results of research that will change many ideas, and I think that the facts and realities are shocking to the world community.

I could go on citing specific sections of the report, but I think that these facts are enough to convince any doubters in the real intensification of natural disasters around the world, a process that is developed with a significant acceleration since 2010.

Kazakhstan Today: Please tell us more about the International Committee GEOCHANGE.

E.Khalilov: GEOCHANGE international committee was established in 2009 by prominent scholars from different countries have signed an international communiqué on global changes of the geological environment.

Currently international communiqué signed by about 200 scientists from more than 60 countries. Among the signatories to the communiqué of such prominent scientists as Professor Franz Halberg — the founder of modern science — chronobiology (USA), Director General of the Geological Survey of Brazil, Dr. Manuel Barreto da Rocha Nieto, Secretary General of the Center for global modeling of earthquakes Dr. Rui Pinghu (Italy) Director Plymouth Marine Laboratory Dr. Stefan Moore (England), Director of the Institute of Volcanology and Seismology Sciences — Professor Eugene Gordeev (Russia), director of the Institute of Geophysics of the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences, Professor Vitaly Starostenko (Ukraine), director of the Institute of Water Problems of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Professor Santordzhan Ohanes, Director of Research Pakistan Earthquake Research Center, Professor Ahsan Mubarak, Advisor to the General Secretary of the Ozone and Climate Change of the World Meteorological Organization, Dr. Ramen Boykov (Germany), Director of the Center for Disaster Gadjah Mada University professor Sartohadi Junoon (Indonesia), Director of the Institute of Geography of the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences and President of the Bulgarian Committee on Geography Dr. Marianne Nikolov, director of the Institute of Geology of the Georgian Academy of Sciences Dr. Tamara Tsutsunava, director of the Institute of Seismology of the Uzbek Academy of Sciences, Professor Fatkhutdinov Ziyaddin, deputy director of the Institute of Earth Physics Professor Yevgeny Rogozhin (Russia), director of the Institute of the Earth's crust Sciences Professor Eugene Sklyarov (Russia ), heads of government departments, parliamentarians, rectors of the leading public universities, directors of research institutes and other institutions of Azerbaijan, director of the Department of Mineral Resources Geological Survey of Croatia Dr. Slobodan Miko, Director of the Institute of Geosciences and Mineral Resources of South Korea Dr. Jai Gon Kim, heads research institutions and government agencies, prominent scientists in the field of earth sciences and related fields from various countries. The full list of signatories, please refer to the communiqué of the International Committee GEOCHANGE.

Kazakhstan Today: Elchin Nusratovich, mentioned information about the participants of the communiqué is really quite impressive and demonstrates the critical importance of the problem. Can ordinary people familiar with the report of the International Committee GEOCHANGE?

E.Khalilov: Of course, this opportunity will be provided to all. Currently, the report is published in English and Russian. But alongside the finished version in German, French and Spanish. The first report of the International Committee GEOCHANGE covers the period up to 31 May 2010 and will be posted on all of the languages on the website of the International Committee GEOCHANGE to early September 2010.

Kazakhstan Today: How can you comment on the recent eruption of two large volcanoes in Ecuador and Guatemala, May 28, 2010? How, in your opinion, will happen to natural disasters this year?

E.Khalilov: You touched sore subject. Have not yet millions of people sigh with relief after the nightmare of traffic caused by volcanic ash from the Icelandic volcano that covered the atmosphere of the whole of Europe and paralyzed air travel (it was canceled about 100 thousand flights) in many countries of the world as new eruptions began on the other side of the planet. According to the report of the International Committee GEOCHANGE, the total economic damage from the eruption of the Icelandic volcano close to 10 billion euros.

Eruption of two of the world's most active volcanoes in Ecuador — Tungurahua Volcano, and Guatemala — Pacaya volcano — have led to casualties and great economic damage. Thousands of people were evacuated, and continue to leave dangerous areas surrounded by volcanoes. Almost at the same time on the other side of the planet — in Kamchatka — May 31 to June 2, the eruption has four major volcanoes of the Earth: Krimsky, Shiveluch, Nameless and Klyuchevskoy. The eruption of the volcano Nameless explosion and release of ash column to a height of 11 kilometers. So, as you can see, the world is waking up almost simultaneously in all geodynamic active zones.
But do not bring less poverty and other disasters — floods. In 2005, flooding in the U.S. caused by Hurricane Katrina, were killed in total, 1836 people. U.S. damage caused by Hurricane Katrina and the flooding was about $ 130 billion in a number of states of emergency was declared. The then U.S. President George W. Bush said in his speech that this disaster is the most horrific natural disaster in U.S. history.

But look at what is happening now. Many European countries have been flooded, and flooding in Poland has taken the incredible scope and threatens the national security of the country, caused damage to more than 3 billion euros. Killed about 20 people. Nearly a million people were evacuated.

Not smaller-scale natural disaster struck and our country — Azerbaijan. Heavy rain and intense tectonic movements were recorded by the ATROPATENA, led to an unprecedented phenomenon before. May 3 at once in eight different regions of Azerbaijan, located in its opposite places — north, south, west and east, there was a severe landslides, in which many people died. In early May 2010, following the withdrawal of the banks of the Kura River and rainfalls, floods occurred in 40 districts of Azerbaijan. As a result of the disaster, about 20 thousand homes were flooded, more than 300 — are destroyed, two thousand were in bad condition, 50 thousand hectares of cultivated land were under water.

Occur and more rare, unusual and surprising extent of its manifestations. For example, is striking not only laymen, but also representatives of the Earth, formed in Guatemala City a huge failure in the ground — a huge hole about 20 meters and almost perfectly round shape and a depth of about 60 meters. Two weeks earlier, on May 11, in the Canadian province of Quebec in the town of St. Jude in the ground formed a gigantic circular crater, much larger in area than in Guatemala. In the same period of time during the first half of May, in the different regions of Azerbaijan about the same time, there were several holes in the ground, some of which resulted in casualties.

I want to focus the reader's attention to the fact that the report of the International Committee GEOCHANGE also contains some disappointing long-term predictions based on the analysis of periodicities in the manifestation of many disasters. Virtually all studies confirm earlier repeatedly voiced our date of the period the greatest manifestation of natural disasters — 2011-2015. Forecast for almost all kinds of disasters — earthquakes, volcanoes, tsunamis, tornadoes, hurricanes, floods, water levels in the oceans, global climate change. But from the September 2010 statistics of all the natural disasters to rise sharply. According to the Global Network for the Forecasting of earthquakes GNFE, in June 2010, is expected to increase in seismic activity in the world.

Presenting the report to the public debate, we want to show the world — politicians, the business community, academics and all levels of society — which is a serious danger threatens humanity. Report was compiled in such a way that any educated person can understand the realities of the global changes that are currently taking place in nature and threatens the stability of human development.

The first report of the International Committee will be reviewed and discussed during the General Assembly, the date and venue of which is currently being specified. Concurrently with the General Assembly will be held the International Conference on Global Change of the geological environment.

Participants in the International communiqué GEOCHANGE hope their warning will be heard and allow joint efforts of the international community in a timely manner to prepare for the expected large-scale natural disasters.

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