China rear, front or poboku?

I. Large narrow-eyed "eight"

"White collar" of consulting and auditing company "PricewaterhouseCoopers" looked into the future. Their views became sullen 2033. They say in some of the employees in the future razglyadevshy some particularly sordid details, tears dripped from his eyes. Right in the coffee. After all, if the guys from the IMF is not so long ago prophesied that the crisis will last for another 10 years, these consultants, having been in 2033, saw the crisis and there. And if the Yankees and Europeans have in the future is bad, the Chinese almost literally dancing on their bones.

China: behind, in front or poboku?

How, then, will the world be after 20 years?

Weeping representatives «PricewaterhouseCoopers» convinced: Favorites of the global market in the coming years is not going to get out of the quagmire of financial crisis. And, more terrible, insolent developing countries are not only solve the issues that face them today, and do not extend a helping hand to those who will helplessly wallowing in the mire, gradually leaving a viscous bottom. Those who yesterday was the heart and strategies, and trade, and dictated the will of the world, tomorrow will be a dirty tip of the tail.

However, if the economists of the OECD in the past year predicted extreme rise of China in the years 2016-2020, in «PricewaterhouseCoopers» push back the period to 2033. Perhaps, given time, Obama and his satellites returned to life and catch up on lost time.

After 20 years, to experts, China will become the richest country on the planet. As for today's "leader", he will hand over the leading position and revert to second place. At this point, analysts leave it up to the year 2050, ignoring the detailed explanations. Sighing, they add that by the time the summits of the "Big Eight" will be replaced by meetings of representatives of seven Asian countries are more successful.

Economists 'PricewaterhouseCoopers' hint, however, that China could destroy the social tensions and increase public inequality. But, you think, this is the much faster destroy America that, in addition, like the EU, in the years 2033-2050. will be engaged in tightly Islamists.

2033rd year — Far away, and even further — the 2050 th year. And what real?

And in 2013, China drag behind him the entire global economy. Now not write half a year back, the danger of slowing growth in China and its future "recession." Today, many forecasters agree on the fact that this year the Chinese economy will accelerate again: after last year's slowdown to 7.5% — 7.8% GDP growth may be close to 9 percent. Immediately and without moderate U.S. economic growth will slow, and the EU countries certainly shines recession.

Incidentally, the Chinese themselves are not bouncers. Maybe afraid to jinx their success. At the XVIII Congress of the CPC Hu Jintao does not styled Chinese locomotive of the world economy or the future of the planet favorite. No, he just referred to his native China, "the largest developing country." And he, in spite of the horrors of the U.S. and the West in general, not a word is said about the claims on the country superpower.

Now in China — the time change. Reinventing management of the country, headed by Comrade Xi Jinping will reduce excessive exposure to the country's economy — but only where it is ineffective. Reform will balance the rights of private companies with municipal and relieve the existing distortions in the economy.

Perceive China and measures to stimulate domestic demand. Country, may be reincarnated as a self-sufficient economic system, exporting technology and capital and almost all rely on the domestic market. According to the plans of the party to the 2020 income should increase by half. The Chinese will import more products. With all this exporting country would be that at the moment the strength to create not developing, but the advanced countries of the world.

CPC adopted at the twelfth five-year plan's seven priority areas for investment, and they all belong to the sverhtehnologichnym sectors (energy and information technology, engineering of the highest level, new energy sources, etc.). Shred these sectors in GDP should Strength from 2% in 2010 to 15% in 2020. And more than a common origin China takes over the limit — where has remained cheap labor — in some Asia-Pacific and Africa. African financial "intervention", however, do not like America, but because the Chinese are not going to ask her permission.

By the way, the Yankees need to understand that China is not only the export of goods, and imports. And if the CCP promises increment imports — so be it. No wonder this week's State Council on US-China trade (in this informal group consists of more than 200 U.S. companies) allocated relevance and importance of trade and economic relations between China and the United States, noting that Washington should consider the economic growth of China as a threat. In contrast, white-washed house on NSAKT tips should make an effort to create a constructive trade relations.

People from NSAKT lucidly explained to that constructive Sino-American affairs will benefit the South American companies, workers and the economy: for China for the United States — not only a great challenge, and a great chance. In America should realize that China's economic growth is a good opportunity for the development of the South American business. After all, China is now third behind Canada and Mexico U.S. export market. And if China will import more?

In short, China is expected to grow, but do not forget about his locomotive role: he will pull a train for the global economy. In the U.S., it is often overlooked — at davneshney habit considered the locomotive completely China.

II. Chinese confirm Savage

Electing its official strategic value the Asia-Pacific region, the U.S. made aware of the entire planet: we will not let the Chinese people. Do not let any of this either. We, Americans, get out of Afghanistan, we do not climb into Syria, we will do without Mali, we are discouraged from Netanyahu bomb Iran and urezhem Panetta retirement, but our Navy will not allow the Chinese to have drilled a hole in the Senkaku.

Americans believe that China is behaving very much nravno. In everything from weapons to the world economy. In the latter came to China to establish their own rules of the game. In Beijing continue to govern the yuan, which is not to the liking of the Yankees, realizing that such makarom Chinese export revenues are increasing (in its own currency). China, consisting in the WTO puts barriers in front of strangers procurement system. In all of all of this banking system and the stock market of China is actually one hundred percent closed to foreign companies: their share there is not greater than 2-percent.

The Chinese did not openly endorse Western values. Browser "Utra.ru" A. Milovzorov quotes publication in the "People's Daily", which refers to the fact that China is willing to

"Newest form human civilization, and becoming the newest flagship, postzapadnoy era, make endless preconditions for development of the entire population of the earth in a world where the
re will be an assistant coach and everyone."

This is a Chinese geopolitical dream — Yes Tun, or the "Great Unity". Another question is what kind of future awaits the world "after the West" and that the promises of the planet the Chinese people the idea of "universal civilization".

Yet his dream until the Chinese do not impose, in contrast to that dream, that — that with petrodollarami in pockets, then with cluster bombs in planes — stubborn people realize white houses of different generations.

In 1989, the CIA experimented with a "color revolution" in China. Actions in Tiananmen Square were directly related to the CIA subversion, whose head had left China for the day or two before the Chinese troops stormed the demonstrators in Beijing. The Central Intelligence Agency was not only a source of protest, but also collaborated with the secret police of China, which Washington maintains tight fit as many things since 1970. Through the mediation of the CIA Chinese protesters were not only trained to "build democracy", and received the office equipment, tools and guns.

10 years later, on the night of May 7, 1999 three NATO missiles hit the Chinese Embassy in Belgrade. His dreadful atrocity Americans explained to an outdated map that the embassy was not indicated at the appropriate place. Defense Secretary William Cohen and CIA Director George Tenet issued a joint statement saying that, in the views of NATO, the building housed the Yugoslav military, and not the Chinese Embassy. Results: 26 the wounded and three dead Chinese.

By the way, a little earlier, in the same 1999, China has accused the United States of inciting mass protests in Tiananmen Square, Beijing shaken 10 years ago. The bloody drama on the square were shown as part of the strategy for the dispensation of political chaos in China. Completely possible that the Yugoslav bombing was a response to the Chinese bad comments policy.

For the bombing of the embassy in Belgrade on May 7, the Chinese government has subjected the United States bloodthirsty criticism. The purpose of shock, uttered in Beijing — the destabilization of China. The bombing appeared to be the last humiliation of the people that was too much. The government conformed to the Middle Kingdom: it is time to seriously develop its armed forces, giving the case a large part of the budget.

Now clear, the United States have legalized the possibility of a nuclear strike on China: in the National Defence Act introduced a corresponding position. The law has already been signed by Obama. South American senators are struggling to not only withstand a "China threat" to the future defense budget cuts of, and renders an image of the people for their own external enemy. This is a common municipal script to easily convince people that today's brutal and it is not cheap government is badly needed: it prowl round narrow-eyed enemies.

This intimidating to work a couple of years back ridiculed clever Noam Chomsky, the South American linguist and political analyst:

"… Went to newcomer wave of articles and headlines on the first pages of" building up the military power of China. " The Pentagon claimed that China increment own offensive military capability, being armed with 400 missiles, which can be equipped with nuclear warheads. Later we had the debate: whether it proves that China is trying to take over the world, or it is simply incorrect number, or something else. But there is one place to malehankih note. How many attack missiles with nuclear warheads, the U.S. has? Turns, 10000. And China has them — 400 if you believe in a brutal "hawks." And it proves that China is trying to take over the world.

If you closely read the foreign press, it appears that the reason for the Chinese military build-up is not only in the United States boundless anger. It is that the United States have improved their ability to restore missiles at the target, and can now destroy missile launch facilities more sophisticated, wherever they may be, and even mobile. And who then tries to take over the world? Well, it is clear that the Chinese … "

Previously, large outside Washington was opposed Russian Alliance. Now — China. As long as America will claim to be a world leader, policeman, peacekeeper, she will always be the enemy. He wants to or not.

III. Fly in the ointment to the barrel of honey

China "took off" in the world economy in about 30 years. The basis of its economic miracle was the wisest orientation control on external demand (if you can not make the GDP of poor domestic demand), very cheap labor (at the cost of a serving of rice and a drink of water), and the enormous population (the world record). But in the coming years, as convince analysts, the main resources of the country will be exhausted.

China's population is aging. Specialists write, that the aging of the population may lead to a slowdown in economic growth from the current 8.7% to 6% for the foreseeable future.

The reason frisky aging civilization — artificial: program that was adopted in 1979 and bears the title "One family — one child." More than 30 years economy China has changed dramatically for the best, but the risen generation — or is accustomed to state control of fertility, or took the example of the West, where the kids have long been out of fashion — children starts with great reluctance.

China's population — 1.4 billion people. 937 million of them — the working-age population. According to the United Nations, in 5 years it will decrease by 24 million people. With all the number of older people over 65 will increase by 66 million. According to the forecasts made at the symposium "The aging population in the twenty-first century: Successes and Challenges", in 2053 the number of elderly people in China will grow from 185 million to 487 million. By mid-century, a third Chinese would be an old man.

Note, this is just about the turn of the days on which the analysts wrote of the company «PricewaterhouseCoopers», has predicted that China will steer the world economy until 2050. In other words, in 2053 China will grow old at all: production octogenarian veterans will not be able to compete with … who? Hard to tell, that by that time will be with America. Perhaps for the first place Indians catch up. Behind them — Indonesians, well, there turn for solar Africans are themselves Chinese, on the head, and around the train. And while kids are doing as much as desire. More precisely, as much as is.

By-product of China's policy of 1st child notices columnist "Utra.ru" Said Halmurzoev, was the deterioration of the properties of the population. According to a study posted in the journal "Science", Chinese citizens who were born after 1997 are more selfish and less inclined to take risks, if bodren'kiye body and spirit older generations. The lack of intra-family competition (no brothers or sisters), in fact, the only child deprived of additional motives for development.

In economic terms, to make up the aging of civilization can only snatch NTP: any discovery, innovation, scientific achievements, which at the same time would give impetus to the development of civilization. But it looks like they have nowhere to take.

However, if the Chinese, as already mentioned, will over time migrate their primitive production in Africa, focusing on sverhtehnologichny areas, the "manufacture of the world" one way or another will be transformed into something a little reminiscent of the Japanese economic model.

Together with the statement that the Chinese about such a transfer of production appears to be superfluous optimistic. In 1-x, the move means the growth of Chinese companies in unemployment as a result — the reduction of the already low domestic demand. In-2, sverhtehnologichny production capacity will lead to the upcoming increase in the price of labor in China, which will reduce the competitiveness of products in China. B-3, China has been relatively population, which could be employed in the "primitive" industries.

Another thing is that China is rushing to expand, strengthen the global economy, so how else to behave in a competitive environment, it is impossible. Because if some industries and will be transferred to Africa, the prospect of transformation of China in the region of "white-collar" as a whole — is very vague.

As for the "old economy", by mid-century, it seems, the whole world will grow old. Apart Arab part. That's where you want to take a closer look Yankees. And not on China. In general, so far — for the middle of the century — the Americans do not look. Cost? After all, Comrade Buchanan lucidly explained to that by the end of the XXI century Western civilization in general there is nothing left.

Surveyed and commented Oleg Chuvakin
— Especially for topwar.ru

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