South American political scientist, philosopher, writer Francis Fukuyama in 1989, when it began the erosion of real socialism in the journal "National Interest" («National Interest") published an article by a prominent title, "The End of History." When the Soviet Union collapsed and the real socialism has sunk into oblivion, Fukuyama launched an article in a book and published it in 1992 under the title "The End of History and the Last Man." The book was an instant success, and was reprinted 20 times in almost every country has become a blockbuster. This is what is being said, to be in the right place and at the right time. After all, many wondered how the world works after the disappearance of the bipolar system of the public.
But such Fukuyama said, which caused such great enthusiasm to the article at first, and later to the book? Here, perhaps, his main conclusion: "The triumph of the West, of the Western idea is obvious at first since liberalism did not have any viable alternatives … we may be witnesses — not just the end of the "cold war" or another period of postwar history, but the end of history as such, the end of the ideological evolution of the population of the earth and the universalization of Western liberal democracy as the final form of government. " With the victory of the liberal revolution and the establishment of liberal systems in the leading countries of the world, explained his position Fukuyama, missing the potential for conflicts for political or ideological reasons. Those countries, Makar, reached the level of post-history, harmonious coexistence and backward, peripheral countries, between which the likelihood of conflict and war, still remain in the stories, but they do not make a world development. Conflicts between the historical and post-historical Fukuyama states are not excluded, but may not be significant, as the big run across the country to the level of post-historic, I mean liberal development. This is similar to the "turning inside" the maxim of Marx.
Just as Marx prehistory of the world's population is replaced by the true story of when it reaches the top of its own — the building of communism, and Fukuyama — the story ends with the global triumph of liberal public system.
A couple of years later, in America, there is another which has become very popular in the western world close the above theory is another South American doctor, a political scientist Samuel Huntington, who was a young Fukuyama called his teacher and friend. Huntington (deceased in 2008), like Fukuyama, not only repelled by the fact of the collapse of world socialism, and acted about the same pattern. First it in the journal "Foreign Affairs" in 1993 published an article "The Clash of Civilizations", and in 1996 — and a book with the same title. In the 2-words, after leaving in the past the "cold war" as a product of 2-feedback systems of public policy, the ideological struggle and the other goes into the inter-civilizational struggle. Of the eight civilizations of naming them, he highlighted the Islamic civilization as a more belligerent.
Well, not for all this is not to mention the "godfather" of modern neo-liberalism of Milton Friedman, who received the Nobel Prize priemuschestvenno for the development of monetary theory, which built unfortunate "Washington Consensus" and the policy of international financial fund long years was under the influence of the United States. Friedman world needs and the notion of "economic fundamentalism", which stems from his theory.
Totalitarian thinking in a democratic shell
I wish to highlight: the Fukuyama and Huntington, and Friedman, and their famous supporters were very much needed South American establishment and those centers that are engaged in the elaboration of the strategy of internal and external policy of the United States and in fact have it, also on the impact of public opinion, sometimes is very strong. What is common that connects voedinyzhdy these 3 prominent social scientists and Western futorologov? Totalitarian look at public process and the desire to create a unified world, tailored for the western and, namely, the South American model in today's turn of its development. In this view, deprived not only of historicism, the awareness of the abundance of the world, the various nations which are at different levels of social development and different ways of committing an upward movement, and dynamism.
Let's start with the Fukuyama, who at 60 years old is a leading researcher in one of the structures of the Stanford Institute. In 1-x, why specifically the liberal model of public devices should become the crown of historical development? And who has proved that between countries with public device may not show up tensions and conflicts of a political, ideological or confessional like? All the more so that in the framework of these states themselves often appeared even armed conflicts, such as, for example, in Britain — between Irish Catholics and Irish-Protestants.
In-2, Fukuyama clearly beheld the world in static and high-spirited, anticipating the rise of China and India, which each year are having an increasing impact on the course of world events, but that did not live by the laws of liberalism.
Despite the fact that the harsh and Western analysts did not believe that, for example, in China, even in the distant future reign liberal model of public device. Moreover, apart from China and India in recent decades have made a breakthrough in a developed economy and a new quality of public life a number of other Asian country, does not dream about, that ended with them on this story.
As noted, not without drama english analyst and writer Richard McGregor, 20, who headed the Beijing office of the newspaper Financial Times, «the development and transformation of a number of Asian countries (Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, South Korea) right around the decolonization process, which began after the second World War, played the role of the lift for the entire region. What's all the same for the land of the rising sun, this economic giant shook the West and challenged him. And the economic transformation of China, a country with one-fifth of the population of the planet, and is quite unprecedented global event. China — this is a genuine megatrend paradox that can reshape the world economy sector by sector. And led by his Communist Party, which only worsens the irritation of the West, which is only a few years earlier reveled in the thought "the end of history" and the final triumph of liberal democracy. "
B-3, any movement forward is through overcoming the contradictions inherent nature itself, and in public life — through konkurentnst. The existing bi-polar system of society, on the one hand, provided the choice of the people, on the other hand, makes each of 2-systems to increase their economic efficiency and social attractiveness. After all, it is well known that capitalism in the West began to transform into postcapitalism or social capitalism under the strong influence of the socialist revolution in Russia. Although it can be said in another way: the ruling circles in the West sought to prevent a social revolution in their own countries and so began "socialization of capitalism." And with the disappe
arance of the "world socialism" ruling circles in the West, and at first the United States, of course, "relaxed" and do not see how anyone not refuted Marx's formula of "money-commodity-money" means money pyramid turned into "money-money-money."
Experts estimate that Americans, and right behind them, and a number of EU citizens about 15-20 percent more consumed than produced.
In the end, it really is really harmonious affairs between "post-historical nations"? Certainly, millions of Greeks, Spaniards, Portuguese, residents of other states who have fallen in the last decade, unprecedented poverty, while not on their own, but because of the prevailing EU neoliberal development model, dreaming of a life that was with them in a "historical of time. " We can not say that in a crisis-hit EU countries built up resentment tough policy of Germany, and Chancellor Angela Merkel requiring further reduce municipal spending, which further reduces their growth and increasing unemployment.
It is appropriate to quote the words of another Nobel laureate in economics Paul Samuelson (1915-2010), the 1st of the big U.S. and global economics. It was formed in the years of the Roosevelt knew Friedman, since they both studied in Chicago, but was opposed to his theory of the vast economic liberalism, believing that it is impossible to turn away from the municipal regulation. Thus, even in the criteria of the current crisis, he read that "today is seen as a false idea was Milton Friedman that the market system can regulate itself … again became topical Keynesian idea that tax policy and deficit financing should play an important role in the regulation of the market economy. Wish that Milton Friedman was alive and could follow along with us, as he preached extremism led to the failure of his ideas. " (Samuelson for two years experienced Friedman, who was born in 1912.) But sets the tone of the EU leaders and the criteria of the crisis seems to have continued to follow the monetary theory, the result of which was the deepening of the crisis and in the "euro zone".
"Megaideya" Samuel Huntington's transition from the world of ideological and political differences and conflicts to tsivizitsionnym has some external credibility, but does not stand the test of time.
Seen a lot on your own longish actual path Huntington (1927-2008 gg.) Could personally observe how untenable his concept. In 1-x, if the United States considers its geopolitical rival of China, it is not because of cultural and civilization differences, but because of its rapidly growing economic and military power. And Russia with European culture presidential candidate of the Republican Party Mitt Romney has recently announced a geopolitical enemy number 1 is not due to any conflict of civilization there, and because it has the world's second nuclear missile power potential.
In-2-x if Islam as a young and using the expression Gumilev, passionate religion carries within it the danger of Christian civilization, why is the West so intensively involved in the elimination of secular regimes in the Arab world? In Iraq and Syria, at the dawn of a "Arab socialism," affirmed secular regimes. In Egypt, Libya and some other countries of the "Arab Spring" Islam played the role of religion in any country with a population dominated by the believer, but a particular Islam, the organization "Muslim Brotherhood" and even more so, "Al-Qaeda" strongly oppressed .
And, in-3, a few decades back naikrupneyshy European political scientist and sociologist Ralf Dahrendorf coined the term "self-fulfilling prophecy." That is, if something is repeated many times and then it eventually comes true. And there is no mystery, as it has a scientific basis. The spoken word — it's not just information, and energy, and if it is constantly repeated by many, the combined energy of these many may have bolshennuyu force. You can, of course, argue, has played a role of a naizloveschuyu read by many people book the South American science fiction writer Morgan Robertson, who in 1898 published the book "Futility, or the death of Titus' death gave a similar picture of the real" Titanic "in 1912.
But it is not so long ago, in a speech on TV one Russian fiction stated that he refused to write a fantastic script with a catastrophic end, as they have realized in his eyes.
In other words, if replaced in order to find the boost to growth of the same constructive and Islam as their ability to eliminate, rather than multiply, as happened after the anger of U.S. troops and their allies against Iraq and putting their troops in Afghanistan, the media write and read the imminent struggle of different religions, cultures and civilizations, there is a great possibility that it may well happen. And it will, I repeat, is not in line with the esoteric (which is also worthy of research), and the scientific conclusion arrived at by such notable scholar as Ralf Dahrendorf.
Does the world have remained the standard model of social development?
When the Soviet Union developed faster capitalist countries of the West, social benchmark for most advanced public forces of many countries was socialism. And after starting the world's first artificial satellite in 1957, and in particular the world's first manned space flight in 1961, the number of students of the Russian language in almost all countries dramatically multiplied. But most vividly about the popularity of the idea of socialism in the world says that most of the newly independent states from colonial rule in the late 80's — early 90's of the last century have announced their own orientation to the socialist path of development. But the lack of political competition, the desire to control Russian indefinite rule has led to the impoverishment of higher mental control of the country, the loss of them to keep pace with time. This vosprepyadstvovalo him properly to meet the challenges associated with the beginning of the technological revolution (STR) on the one hand, and the configuration of power relations in the international arena and the increasing role of the advanced countries in humanistic values — on the other. The failure to transform long time yet been outlived Stalin's economic model and political system of the USSR turned progressing behind the advanced countries of the West and the discrediting of so-called real socialism in the eyes of not only the public, and a large part of the Russian people.
The West, using the merits of growing scientific and technological revolution and the ability of growing globalization, scored the highest and rarest for the duration of the growth rate of production and on this basis could build a social-market relations and social government to expand the scope of democracy. He eventually became the center of attraction for other countries, including the former socialist states.
The voice of the analysts who beheld that the prosperity of the West in almost everything is based on money speculation, the development of economic and financial "bubbles" that did not go to the so-called "mainstream" until the banking industry began to crumble.
And when Western countries shaken by unprecedented in the history of post-war demonstrations of hundreds of thousands of "perturbed" of unemployed and homeless people, it is only surprising leaders of those countries that are still eager for the European Alliance.
As mentioned already read Paul Samuelson, a full recovery of Western economies and, namely, the U.S., will not come soon. "The difference between the modern destruction of the monetary base — he said — is that the devil's money project" brilliant "graduate of MIT and the Wharton School (Wharton School), we have built such" skilled "house of cards that will be highly time-consuming to sort out this mess an
d restore confidence in the monetary system. "
Quite obviously, that the existing model frisky growth has exhausted itself, as long as the newcomer has not designated itself. Need to bring the standard of living in line with the level of production and services, which, of course, is a protest of people. It is necessary to reduce municipal costs for the sovereign debt of the U.S. is greater than the volume of GDP, and in some European countries it is even more. How to do this without reducing the purchasing power and the growth of production, no one knows. The European Union has talked about the fact that they inadvertently gave a lot of production to other countries, and the first to China, and it was necessary to return them to get new jobs. But how to do it, too, no one knows for successfully compete with China in the production of wide demand yet no one has.
Whose model of development proved to be more resilient? Perhaps, at first, the Chinese.
Despite the fact that there a lot of emphasis was placed on the export of products whose consumption is very fallen in Europe and America, China, and in the years of the crisis continues to grow the highest rates: 2008 — 8.6%, 2009 — 8.7% , in 2010 — 10.3%, 2011 — 9.2%. Decline in exports to Europe and the U.S. China offset its sharp increase in Latin America, Africa, and in the adjacent country, and the expansion of domestic demand due to the growth of income of their own people. Frequent talk about the decline of manufacturing in China if not the result of a weak awareness of their creators, then pursue any political goals, as in 2012, GDP growth in the range of 8%. We would have a "fall", and such range of manufactured products!
The Chinese model of development, so to speak, was continued in the non-European former socialist countries, such as Vietnam and Laos. Some of its components are used in Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries, and Cuba. There are the first signs that she started asking prices in North Korea.
Incidentally, the Belarusian model is close to the liking of the Chinese economic system.
In all those countries, which came to be called "newly industrialized" (South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, etc.), on the initial steps of economic transition was a model of municipal capitalism. If in Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union came to savage capitalism and oligarchy led, in Belarus — Council capitalism. Only difference is that today's "newly industrialized countries" in the majority's own resources were richer in Belarus, had access to the sea. And to them well regarded West, the United States first. Washington turned a blind eye to the presence of a totalitarian regime, sometimes very violent, as in South Korea, because looking at them as their own allies and otherwise helping them get back on their feet. (After all, at the moment the West "did not notice" a violation of human rights in those Arab countries that are its allies.)
Belarus is West "Presses", I wish to place Alexander Lukashenko came to one of the pro-Western liberals, who have led the country away from Russia. Lukashenko can blame the lack of flexibility, diplomacy (which, of course, causes harm to his style), but not in the fact that it stands in the way of coming to power of the liberal opposition. She is there is very weak, unpopular, in principle, capable of managing the state. In the West, it is well known, but still stick to their line. Western circles and attack on the President of Ukraine Viktor Yanukovych, who has replaced their Russophobia winner Viktor Yushchenko, who has appeared incredibly feeble manager. Demanding the release of Yanukovych Yulia Tymoshenko in jail, they are ready to spit on the fact that in Ukraine there is a separation of powers and, specifically, there are independent tribunal which only the right to decide such questions. (I should like to build what would be the president of France or the United States if he had to bypass existing procedures determined decision freed convict a senior bureaucrat. And I recall in 1996 year, when passed in Russia's presidential election. There have been so many violations bordering on crime, that at least some Western country in the dock would have been very many dignitaries. The West, but was interested in the results of the election and did not say anything about the violations). But if you look, as they say in the root, the Western strategists asleep, and behold the Ukraine and Belarus definitely in orbit svogo feedback, and that it is not possible, they are very angry.
Mandatory circles in the West, particularly the European Union, even in the criteria of the profound crisis, confused, make mistakes and tyazheleyschie very lagging in the adoption of appropriate anti-crisis measures, in fact, themselves in need of expert advice from the side, continue to teach others how to live.
Are still trying to impose a Western model of democracy to countries with strong tribal and feudal remnants. Try us, the Russians — in any way in a fit of "high spirituality," drawn from their "deep religiosity" — to force adore gays and lesbians, to force a country with a population of endangered legalize same-sex marriage, etc. It would be good for those who wish to teach others first hard look in the mirror.
Unlike China, the development model of, as annoying though it may sound, not a role model became the prototype of the former socialist countries not only in Europe, and Asia. Our reformers, liberals, as you know, with the permission of President Boris Yeltsin's reform model "gave" America, which is "fit of generosity" in addition to advisers headed to Harvard Dr. Jeffrey Sachs. Together with a team of Gaidar — Chubais they are following the tenets of Milton Friedman, because reformed the country, which in its development, it has been abandoned for many years to reverse. With all of this have suffered huge (and often irreplaceable) loss industry, the highest technology, science, culture, education, health, appeared paradox of "extinction of Russia."
And the logic of our former "brothers in socialism" ordinary and obvious: why should they emulate a country with an underdeveloped, wildly and furtive capitalism if the world is a country with a developed and more than or less civilized capitalism, who have suffered such losses, which suffered Our homeland in shock reforms?
I remember how our pro-Western liberals, and right behind them, and we, vicious, screaming ":" America will help us! ". This, of course, was her help, which we have no right to forget.
But it requires clarification. Our homeland — the successor of the mighty power, and it also has military power and political influence in the world, and the natural and financial resources, and it is very much needed. In the other there would be no SCO nor BRICS nor CSTO nor the EurAsEC. No one needs only its development model.