Reducing the number of multi-year ice in the Arctic and in particular, the almost complete disappearance in the Northern Sea Route (NSR), allows you to make a favorable prognosis for shipping in 2013, told reporters the head of the High-sea expedition "Arctic-2012" of the Arctic and Antarctic Research Hydromet Institute (AARI) Vladimir Sokolov.
In September, sea ice in the Arctic reached a low — 3.41 million square kilometers, which is a record low in the history of satellite observations of Arctic ice, which started in 1979. The previous record low sea ice in the Arctic Ocean was recorded September 16, 2007 — 4.17 million square kilometers. The mean value of the minimum area for the period from 1979 to 2000 is 6.71 million square kilometers.
"According to the forecasts of the Arctic Institute, Center Ice hydrometeorological information in the coming year on the Northern Sea Route in the navigation season, summer and winter, the old and the old ice will not. Will only first-year ice, which in almost all summer vytaivaet. So navigation is easy, confident, and have the appropriate ice-class vessels that operate on this route will be no problem, "- told Sokolov at a press conference in St. Petersburg's media center RIA Novosti.
Falcons convinced that freight to the CAP will only increase. He recalled that the nuclear icebreakers FSUE "Rosatomflot" already secured handling more than one million tons of transit cargo on Arctic sea routes. Plus, this gives one million tons per year, "Norilsk Nickel" and approximately the same number of different companies and vessels of different tonnage, occasionally carrying certain goods on the NSR.
"And as for transportation benefit is high, they will grow. Once the plant is built and the port Sabetta, from us to the east will colossal flows. Question — and that drive back? Flow of us will be provided with a variety of liquid bulk and concentrates. Economic she tells a way out, if the NSR carry different loads will be profitable, and most importantly, safely, "- said Sokolov.
In turn, head of the laboratory study of ice navigation department of ice conditions and forecasts AARI Sergey Frolov said it was too early to talk about year-round navigation on the Northern Sea Route, as the corresponding volume of traffic should be significantly higher.
"Traditionally, in the Eastern Arctic ice were the hardest because of perennial ice edge was closest to the shore. And even in the summer there were problems, such as in 1983 when the nuclear-powered ships could not even get through. But in recent years, old ice edge began to rise to the north and now everything has changed. walk possible. Question — what to carry. When the steady flow of goods, there will be year-round navigation, "- said Frolov.
A total of 2011 nuclear icebreakers had NSR 30 vessels with 816 thousand tons of cargo. This year, the transit traffic to the CAP is forecast Rosatomflota, will be over 1.2 tons.
The Northern Sea Route — the shortest route between northern Europe and the Asia-Pacific region. For the standard route Rotterdam-Yokohama when crossing the Indian Ocean distance is 11.2 thousand nautical miles. In pursuit of the Northern Sea Route distance is reduced by 3.9 thousand nautical miles, or 34%. This reduces the time needed to reach 20 to 33 days and, therefore, reduces the cost of delivery. Potential cargo NSR is estimated at 50 million tons a year.