The end of a multi-vector policy

Despite repeated promises of Alexander Lukashenko to adjust the supply of oil, Russia's alternative, and to find alternative nuclear power plant builders, January 25, it became known as the oil to Belarusian refineries will of Russia and the Russians will build the nuclear power plant. Does this mean the actual surrender of the official Minsk to Moscow?

Most commentators are inclined to think that Russia is now even more tightly tied to his Belarus, and the official Minsk will be even more dependent on Moscow's leaders. But such binding primarily beneficial to the Belarusian authorities, the deputy director of the CIS Institute in Moscow Vladimir Zharihin. And not everything is measured by money alone, he states:

Vladimir Zharihin

"They tied a rope is not severe, and a silk scarf. Which, Russia imposes certain restrictions on the domestic political order in Belarus, where it binds? No. Belarusian leadership is quite free in their decisions. And this behavior is not always like the Russian government, as we know. some political conditions, as far as I know, the achievement of these agreements did not stand out. "

Moscow scholar adds that Belarus now has to choose between Moscow and Brussels. And this selection for Moscow Vladimir Zharihin explains:

"Belarus can not and is not ready to change its geopolitical orientation. Because, unlike Russia, which does not put severe constraints on change orders in Belarus, the EU put such harsh conditions."

As for the money, Belarus, certainly loses them when she agreed to buy oil at prices of Russian companies, says economic analyst Tatiana Manyanok. However, to call the real number of losses is not yet possible because the final terms are being cleared, the expert says:

Tatiana Manyanok

"Much will depend on whether the tolling processing, or have to buy all the oil? This — very different conditions. Besides Russia sometime between April wants to review duties on oil and oil products. This will also change the conditions. And yet — be Is Belarus in This year, buy Venezuelan oil? The list is long. "

But keep within the stated 6.7 billion dollars for the construction of the Belarusian nuclear power plant can not, — said the head of the analytical center "Strategy" Leonid Zaika:

Leonid Zaika

"The Russians have made all previous calculations, the cost estimate for the construction of its nuclear power plant in the Kaliningrad region. Why Putin and talked about six billion. Conditions there and we have about the same. But the construction of nuclear power plants is always increasing in price. Firstly, the builders" clocked up "another billion and a half. Plus other costs. Wherefore, if will shape 9 billion, it will be good. "

And economist Mieczyslaw Burak generally questioned the financing of the Belarusian nuclear power plant Russia:

"All this — the intrigue, I think. Construct a nuclear power plant is now in Belarus for Russia is impossible. In Russia there are no resources to build a nuclear power plant at home, and not to someone else. After all resources — it's not just finance. That's it — another talking shop. "

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