Exclusive interview AZE.az with Chairman of the International Committee for Global Change subsurface GEOCHANGE, Professor Elchin Khalilov.
— Elchin Aliyev, an interview with you was of great interest readers AZE.az. In our editorial staff continues to receive letters asking to know you, what is the likelihood of earthquakes in Azerbaijan and how they will be devastating? What does the us this year?
— I think that at the present time does not take a seismologist to understand that the seismic activity of the Earth increases alarmingly. It is already obvious to all — the year has just started and there was so many earthquakes. Have not been able to forget excitement of a major earthquake in New Zealand, which led to massive damage and casualties as a new strong earthquake occurred, this time in Japan, March 09, with a magnitude of 7.2.
Sometimes we hear is an opinion, "it is clear that disasters are increasing, and it will surprise nobody." Now, when everything started really all too obvious. But was evident in 2008, when the press was my first interview with medium-term forecasts, which indicated that in 2010, will begin the era of natural disasters? But now, they have all apparently the same as for the whole of humanity.
Many people ask me about upcoming events. Other colleagues, by contrast, require to censor all interviews with the forecasts and create different regulatory authorities, to suppress this information, which, in their opinion, the spirit of democracy.
However, I will try to describe in general terms the most likely evolution of the situation of natural disasters in Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan, fortunately, is not one of the regions with a critically high level of seismic and volcanic activity, which includes all areas of "Ring of Fire." In this ring are, along with Indonesia — Japan, Kamchatka and the Aleutian Islands, the whole west coast of North and South Americas. Meanwhile, our country is part of the second, on the level of seismic activity, the global zone — the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt, which, as the name implies, extends from the Alps to the Himalayas. Although this zone is not so active as the "Ring of Fire", but there is a lot of disastrous earthquakes that the number of casualties and destruction entered into history.
In the period from 2011 to 2015 is expected to activate all seismic and volcanic zones of the planet, including the Alpine-Himalayan belt, including its segment — the Caucasus. All the countries in the Caucasus region, will be affected during this period of high seismic activity. However, in my opinion, in Azerbaijan in 2011, despite the high level of seismic activity, though the risk of catastrophic earthquakes is limited. This opinion is expressed on the basis of specific conclusions, based on 30 years of research and work in this area. After all, this problem has been the topic of my PhD, protected 22 years ago at the Moscow State University. MV University. What is the basis of these conclusions.
I will try to present this information to the most popular language. As we predicted in 2008, the process of increasing seismic activity began in 2010 and moved to another more active phase in early 2011. But the first to activate the youngest and most active zone of collision of lithospheric plates, the so-called subduction zone. This super giant faults at an angle stretching for hundreds of kilometers into the Earth's mantle — an area "Ring of Fire."
And the whole 2011 will be a process of increasing the activation of "Ring of Fire" and other young subduction zones in the form of earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis.
Second, after the young subduction zones, will be activated more inert zone — is the impact zone of lithospheric plates bearing the continents. These areas are called zones of conflict. This includes, and our Alpine-Himalayan zone. Back in 1982, my research was first discovered, passing across the Caspian Sea subduction zone, which is reflected in the form of sinking at a certain angle to the Earth's mantle earthquake sources, concentrated along a plane, called the Benioff zone.
Thus, the plate bearing the giant continents have great inertia, and, in our opinion, they will be activated by the end of 2011 — beginning of 2012. However, the peak of seismic activity for the "Ring of Fire" is expected in 2013-2014, and for the Alpine-Himalayan belt in 2014-2015. Thus, in Azerbaijan with the end of 2011 seismic processes will become more tangible and possible earthquakes with average intensity 4.5 — 5 points. As we approach the 2014 earthquake strength will grow and the maximum probability of strong earthquakes are expected in 2014-2015, but did not rule out the possibility of large earthquakes in the period from 2012 to 2013. Thus, time is not so much.
— Elchin Aliyev, what can we say about the situation in Baku?
— As well as during my Validate medium-term forecast of the Baku earthquake 25 November 2000, published October 2, 1999 in the newspaper "The Mirror", I want to remind readers of some aspects. In the standard development of seismic conditions in Baku would expect possible aftershocks no earlier than in 2020 — 2025 years. This period of time is required for the cluster in the known source areas, the next of critical stress in the standard development of the seismic process, as I have said many times since the Baku earthquake.
Meanwhile, as I have repeatedly said in subsequent interviews with the late 90's — early 2000, the course of development of all natural disasters on our planet has changed dramatically, which resulted in the beginning of the exponential increase of seismic and volcanic activity, the number and energy of the tsunami and other natural disasters. I will not dwell on these facts, lit enough in my previous interview. Given the changing geodynamic situation, the time period of possible seismic events in the central part of the Caspian Sea has shifted to 2013-2015.
The most likely area of expected earthquake may be the area of the Caspian Sea, located north and east of the Absheron Peninsula. This diagram shows the possible position of the epicenters of earthquakes expected in the Caspian.
Meanwhile, there is a very important factor in calming for People — is the fact that Baku is very powerful, "pillow" — 25 kilometer sediment consisting mainly of sandstone, shale and limestone. This, rather "soft" layer perfectly absorbs seismic energy, which saved the city in 2000. Within this layer congestion intense stress is impossible, so the centers of earthquakes under this layer — in solid crystal layers — "granite" and "basalt", and in the upper mantle. Therefore, even at a relatively high magnitude, the intensity of the earthquake (earthquake intensity on a 12-point scale) is, to our knowledge, not to exceed an average of 6.5 points.
— In 2010, the year the world has experienced devastating earthquakes, floods, landslides. Natural disasters are not passed, and Azerbaijan. From the spill of the Kura and Araz affected residents Azerbaijani regions, many of them were left homeless. Eruption of mud volcanoes in Absheron. In one of his predictions have told you that the 2011 — 2015 years. — The period of the greatest manifestations of disasters. What will happen with Azerbaijan in this period? And why, how — in your opinion, people do not realize the danger of building houses in the immediate vicinity of the volcano and landslide zones?
— As I have already mentioned several times, from 2011 to 2015 is expected to increase in almost all types of natural disasters on our planet. It is also associated with another 24-m 11-year cycle of solar activity, which, as already shown, also affects the increase of many natural disasters, including earthquakes and volcanic eruptions. By the way, the beginning of a prolonged cycle of almost 2.5 years may indicate the possibility of an unusually high level of solar activity is expected, which is confirmed by the study of a number of Western scholars, recently disclosed to the AAAS conference in the U.S..
As for Azerbaijan, in this time period is expected to floods, the intensification of mud volcanoes and landslide zones razzhizhzhenie ground and gaps in the soil in the foothills.
You wonder why people are so careless, make their homes at the foot of mud volcanoes? This question relates more to the category of human psychology, which tend not to believe the forecasts and warnings, until they see it for themselves. Speaking of which, I remember one of my trips to Indonesia, when I visited the largest volcano on the island of Bali, which is located in the crater of a small village on the shore of a beautiful lake in the center of the crater. I asked a colleague to accompany me why this village is located right in the crater, while the center of the smoke always comes. He said the volcano erupted for 150 years, and the soil is very fertile, and that's gradually moved villagers in this "paradise" corner, which at any moment can turn into a fiery "hell." What can I say, people tend not to believe the forecasts.
— Invented by you Atropatena station installed in a number of countries. How is the message to the people of the country in case of earthquake prediction, that is, notifies you of impending danger directly to the public or the government, or giving recommendations for action?
— Station Atropatena — geophysical instrument is based on a completely new physical principle, never used before. This technology is patented by me in Geneva in 2005, and it received an international patent PCT. At present, four stations Atropatena merged into one network, one of which is headed by me in the Research Institute of Forecasting and Earthquake Research in Baku, the other in Islamabad (Pakistan), Yogyakarta (Indonesia) and Istanbul (Turkey).
Soon, the next station will be operational in Ukraine, recently became a full member of the Global Network for the Forecasting of Earthquakes GNFE. The process of accession of countries to actively GNFE continues. I recall that GNFE operates as an international organization with headquarters in London and has branches in all the countries where it stations and structures, as well as the European office in Munich, and a representative office in the United States.
Station Atropatena record three-dimensional variation of the gravitational field that occur, on average, 3-7 days before a major earthquake, located at great distances from the stations, up to 10 000 km. These gravity anomalies are generated by so-called tectonic waves that are emitted by foci of future earthquakes in the period, on average, up to 10 days before the earthquake. These waves are very broad and slow, passing under the station they cause dimensional changes in the gravitational field, which is determined by the location, strength, time, and number of expected earthquakes.
These stations are fully automatic, their sensitive systems operate in a high vacuum, and the information is removed from the sensor with lasers. Stations broadcast through the Internet without interruption all the recorded information to a central database, which is located in Frankfurt am Main. These stations are constantly being upgraded and to date has produced four models of these stations, the latter of which station Atropatena Crystal Kh11, model 2011, is currently available for testing. Our institute only develops new models and test their stations, and the stations are made in research and production center GNFE in Istanbul and from there they are shipped to different countries.
— Can be created in Azerbaijan warning system about the expected cataclysm? Earlier in the interview AZE.az you mentioned that the awareness of the people of the earthquake the government should deal with or on behalf of the government, the mission could be entrusted to the Emergencies Ministry. Have there for you to access on this?
— As I have repeatedly said, GNFE not exercise awareness of the people or the media on short-term forecasts. Short-term forecasts are provided by the representative of a country GNFE approved by the government as a coordinator on the basis of bilateral agreements between GNFE and the appropriate state agency. This issue does not depend on me.
GNFE policy is based on the interested and voluntary accession of any country in this organization as a full member. GNFE unable to persuade long conservative and skeptical scientists of any country in the performance of their system. We do not have time and energy, so we send the information about the new technology to all countries and begin to cooperate with those of them who really want to learn a new technology and implement it in their country, on the basis of objectivity, friendliness and desire to reduce casualties and damage from earthquakes. 197 countries in the world, and believe me, many of them are countries actively to join the Global Network GNFE.
The logic is very simple — the scientists have to use your potential, where it is really needed and appreciated.
— Thanks for the interview