Forecasters Latvia: we must prepare for the worst

Forecasters Latvia: we must prepare for the worstAlthough, during the XX century, the average annual temperature in Latvia increased by about 1 degree, past and present have been very frosty winter and snow. Therefore Latvian hydrometeorological warning: this spring is expected severe floods and residents should be prepared for the worst scenario.

As told in an interview with the head of department tvnet hydrometeorological forecast Latvian Centre Environment, Geology and Meteorology Laura Krumins, expected in February 2011 will be warmer and less snow than the previous months. December with its heavy snowfall, according to her, can be called "a little abnormal". In Latvia, the rare cases where, within one month of the winter has never been a thaw. Usually it happens: it snows, then, after a severe storm, there comes a little thaw. However, not what they have been frosty January and snow in December last year.

People are used to the warm winters without snow

"But I would rather be called abnormal all previous relatively warm winter, when there was very little snow. A generation accustomed to just such winters, so they seemed to present them with something unusual.

For example, my son, aged 11, used to say, "Mother, I do not need these warm hats, scarves, these". Because he did not realize that winters can be cold and snowy. Now some of the things he previously purchased in handy. "

As recalled by Krumins, in Latvia there are more snow and cold of winter, people just forgot about it.

Long-term projections — something thankless

Asked to give an example Seasonal weather forecast for this year, Krumins stressed that such long-term forecasts Center is not engaged. According to her, in the world of weather forecasting for long periods is rather experimental.

"Even our colleagues in the UK, who have both financial and physical infrastructure is much better than ours, refused to publish the seasonal forecasts on its website, as the case is ungrateful. Indeed, if weather forecasters with a probability of 40% to 60% say that Winter is cold, then there is a chance with the same proportions that the winter will be warm. So the long-term forecasting of the world is still in the development stage. "

As the head of the department of weather, last year, employees of the Centre tried to analyze what the last 100 years has been the relationship between winter and summer. In 80% of cases, if the winter was cold, even in summer the temperature was relatively low. However, as she says, a very hot summer last year, which came after a very cold winter, will not "draw" a clear relationship between winter and summer temperatures.

Risk of flooding more than high

Speaking about the upcoming spring and possible flooding, Krumins said that, given the very large accumulated snow and the fact that they have very little and melt slowly, the probability of flooding this year, more than high.

"Maybe a little better yet is the situation in Courland, where the thaw was more active and the snow melted, the water that is already gone. Course, there will be spring floods, but less than in other regions. In the rest of Latvia, in the spring of for floods can occur very complex situation.

So while we can say only one thing: you have to be prepared for the worst. "

"Of course, a lot depends on what will be the spring. Example, winter 1992 was also very snowy. But when spring came slowly, there was heavy rain. Happy little snow was melting and freezing at night gently. Therefore, the water went down quietly and no major problems was. "

Now watch and hydrologists is calculated as may happen in the spring: and abundant snow and thick ice in the spring can lead to congestion — all indicate that the risk is very high, says Krumins.

REFERENCE:

• During the XX century the average annual temperature in Latvia increased by about 1 degree.

• In winter, precipitation has increased, in the summer and less.

• Lowest temperature: -43.2 degrees, Daugavpils, February 8, 1956

• Highest temperature: 36.4 degrees, Daugavpils, August 4, 1943.

• The warmest winter: 1924-1925.

• The coldest winter: 1941-1942.

• The most snowy winter: 1989-1990.

• least precipitation was in the winter of 1946-1947.

• The warmest summer — 2010.

• Coolest Summer — 1928.

• The most rainy summer — 1928.

• Most dry summer — 1955.

• Record the maximum thickness of the snow cover in Latvia: 130 cm, Vidzeme Gayzinkalns, 16-20 March 1931.

• Record the maximum thickness of the snow cover in Riga: 79 cm, 20-22 February, 1900.

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