If the military potential of NATO states in the past 20 years is rapidly declining quantitatively, qualitatively renewing strongly enough, the military potential of China in the same period or very nekordinalno reduced, or even increasing the quantity, quickly updated perfectly. During these two decades, the PLA entered a completely new level of development, it is not just on an uptrend, but almost "bursting in the sky" in the literal and figurative senses.
During the rather short war with Vietnam in 1979 first revealed the latest Chinese fanaticism and ruthlessness with ugly low quality of management and the level of training, having suffered a shameful defeat. And even in the early 90 PLA was big in size, but very archaic. All of her eight thousand tanks were various options on our T-54. The basis for the Air Force were 3 thousand fighters J-6 — a copy of the MiG-19, that is, the plane of the first generation of machines, even the third generation did not exist. By now of days the situation has changed dramatically.
Over the past 20 years, China's military spending increased by more than 20 times, reaching this year is almost $ 92 billion. Even according to official data (second in the world). With all of this, according to the views of all, without exception, professionals, real spending is 1.5-3 times higher than the official. Yes, they are 3-4 times less than the U.S., but we can not leave out the inconsistency in-1's, the price of military products (PLA becomes a tool in the municipal companies, the U.S. military — the personal), in-2, costs on personnel (in the U.S. they have grown especially in connection with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.) Any of these items of expenditure separately in the United States exceeds the total military budget of China, but this is explained only by the size of product prices and foreign exchange allowances of personnel. Accordingly, statements by officials of China and some zabugornyh "lawyers" in China that he fraction of military spending to GDP is very small, more like foolishness. If only because of China's GDP itself is already very large and continues to grow. And military spending also continued to grow, with 1.5-2 times faster GDP. This rapid growth has completely concrete embodiment.
And in Russia and abroad, many people seriously believe that the PLA so far stands at 90 (not 80) in the sense of being old-fashioned techniques and in the best case can copy something from us or the West. No relation to reality, this picture is how annoying it did not sound, it does not.
Yes, China has really got to him all the standards of the arms is studying to the last screw. But not stupid copy and creatively develops. Moreover, the "trade dress" of the Chinese military-industrial complex is the synthesis of Russian, Western and proprietary technologies. Such a synthesis of goods entirely different scientific and technological schools asks a very strong presence of their school. All the more so if the synthesized very complex and sverhtehnologichny standards. A structure of the arms purchases indicates to what war is now preparing China.
ON THE WAY TO THE OCEAN
Europe has long been waiting for is not an attack on anyone and she is not going to attack anyone. That is why it is so rapidly declining sun of European countries, and that of their remains reoriented to conduct counterinsurgency wars and peacekeeping and police operations. China is attacked quite naturally to some, since a similar attack will be more effective method of suicide (there are unlikely to need clarification.) In addition, attack him just no need to, because even occupy part of the country, in-1's, is unrealistic because of the population, which makes the occupation of a daunting task, in-2, there is no practical sense — Natural Resources China sorely lacking most, as discussed below. Only at the theoretical level imaginable scenario external aggression against China's attack on him by the United States with cruise missiles, sea and air (SLCM, ALCM), and, perhaps, carrier-based aircraft to destroy the objects of the "new economy", the defense industry, military and civilian infrastructure for the greatest military and economic weakening of the PRC. To reflect this pure virtual danger (is virtual, it is not only because of the presence of China's nuclear weapons, and because of the very large number of objects for the attack, surpassing the real ability of U.S. Air Force and Navy) to develop a defense and the Navy, Army here completely useless.
So Makar, from the standpoint of self-PLA has at least 10 years is excessive. Yet, its potential to continue to increase more and more accelerated pace, ie trends straight back to NATO. Statements by Chinese officials that the military build-up is only for peaceful purposes of defense, they sound every year more and more sluggish and Duty. So how can they believe in their unrealistic even at the highest desire, that Beijing can not recognize. Moreover, there seems less convincing sense behold the world's population in their own peaceful intentions.
On the way — DVKD and aircraft carriers.
China in fact increases the potential of its own Navy, going from Mosquito Fleet to the ocean (although mosquito remains the largest in the world). By the number of attack submarines (nuclear and diesel), he has bypassed the United States and Russia. Recently, the construction of the submarine will be deployed with airindependent power plant. This year, the system will first Chinese aircraft carrier, while he remains committed not exactly unique. Ahead of the construction of destroyers, comparable performance characteristics with South American destroyers Arleigh Burke-type URO and similar Japanese Kongo / Atago, filled system Aegis. New Project 022 missile boats are the most massive in the world for its performance characteristics. Already entered into service two amphibious assault ship dock Type 071, the construction of a series of runs. Planned and construction DVKD. The implication enacting anti-ship ballistic missile based on the DF-21 IRBM with a range of up to 1.5 kilometers. In general, the Chinese navy currently occupy second place in combat potential not only in the Asia-Pacific region and in the world as a whole, with this potential only grows, once implemented several shipbuilding programs (from boats to aircraft carriers and SSBNs). And it is clear that the goal here will not only coastal defense and not even just landing on Taiwan, but the projection of force in the waters of the Pacific and Indian oceans, is not only on the south and south-west, and the north-east.
Nothing grows more accelerated pace of China Air Force combat capability. In the past year, was withdrawn from service last J-6 (although they remain in the reserve). Now of about 2 thousand combat aircraft in the battle of the Air Force and the PLA Naval Aviation, more than a quarter are machinery 4th generation (Su-27/J-11, Su-30/J-12, J-10). So Makarov, even the number of advanced fighters China actually overtook Russia, which has about 700 fighters of the 4th generation (of which more than 100 are in reserve), far surpassing any other country (except the United States, of course). With all of this to provide a lightweight fighter J-10 and J-11B (unlicensed version of Su-27) is only beginning. Because in the coming
2-3 years, China will pass us is gu
aranteed by modern fighters. Especially since the physical age of Chinese cars is significantly lower than our and American aircraft. In addition, China is working on deck variations of J-11 (known as the J-15) and J-10. A first this year became a worldwide sensation first flight of J-20. Yes, vsepolnotsennym fighter of the 5th generation, he is not yet, but then our T-50 appeared only in the past year. China has so far has difficulties with aircraft engines and radar, but the rapid technological progress of the country indicates that the lag in these areas will be overcome in the near future. Yet while China is very behind in the field of combat aircraft, and then the problem will be solved. In 1-x, there is information on the development of shock variant J-11 (J-17), similar to the Su-34. In-2, the number of tactical and operational-tactical missiles China leads the world with not a small margin, the bill then goes for a minimum of thousand — it compensates for the lag in the aircraft. B-3, in China in recent years has created a series of shock UAV (WJ-600, CH-3, "Ilong"), in this area it on the head eclipsed Russia and apparently bypassed even the United States.
China is very much strengthened by ground air defense, we bought the S-300PMU1 and PMU2 (total — 7 regiments comprising 26 divisions) and made based on it (of course, no license) HQ-9 air defense missile systems. And the anti-satellite weapon in China have experienced even earlier than in the U.S..
But, of course, more fun for us at the development of the PLA Army.
SETETSENTRIZM In conjunction with MASS ARMY
Tanks often "buried" at least since the time of the Arab-Israeli war of 1973, but they did not "die", while remaining the main striking force of the Army. Both wars of the XXI century — in 2003 and in Iraq in 2008 in Georgia — has once again confirmed that the traditional ground war "army against army" is won only with tanks.
As shown in the first part of this article (see "National Defense» № 7), of all the major classes of weapons specifically NATO tanks reduces the faster everything, and updates the last. More precisely, in general, does not update, all of the major programs from production tanks were closed in the West in the early 90's, the closing of the South American Project Future Combat System means that any promising tank in NATO is no more. For the "aggressive imperialist bloc" is not going to spend the deepest offensive operations where tanks first, and provided for.
As for China, over the past 20 years the number of tanks that are variants on the theme of the T-54
(Tour 59/69/79/80), down from about 8.5 million to about 4.5-5.5 thousand But the tanks of the last generation — the Tour of 88c (approximately 500), Toure 96 (2,5 — 3 million) and Type 99 (approximately 500), the creation of the Tour 96 and Tour 99 runs. So Makar, the number of PLA tank fleet has increased even in a constructive high-quality improvement. Due to the fact that the Armed Forces of the tanks in the permanent parts and storage bases reduced to 2.1 million, China has now entered the first in the world in the number of MBT. And for their production, he also takes the first place in the world, "stamping" of 100 to 500 cars a year. With all this Tour 96 and Tour 99 for his fighting ability, in general, are not inferior to our T-72/80/90. Special can find some details on which our tanks are better Chinese, but he will find other items for which the Chinese are ahead. Round of 99 was the first tank in the world where there is a laser gun (to blind surveillance devices and their operators). Moreover, China is developing a fundamentally new tank, which, apparently, will have a crew of two people and the uninhabited tower. The implication is that it may be in addition to the main gun is armed with 2 quick-6-barreled guns to defeat a variety of purposes, including ATGM. Maybe the tank will also carry on board a compact car-robot for reconnaissance. Pretty hard to imagine that such a rapid build-up of tank fleet with newer machines is for defensive purposes.
Obviously, "peaceful purposes" in China do not just tanks. For example, there is created a unique family of amphibious vehicles based on BMP ZBD-05. This is a crank, a light tank, SAU ZTD-05 and other analogues in the world, these machines do not have such was to be the South American EFV, but it is, as mentioned above, was canceled. Call amphibious armored defensive weapon as yet no one had not occurred.
In the MRL China not kept up with the leading countries of the world, even in the 70's and 80's. But at the moment this implies a trivial breach. Although China has not forgotten to copy our "Tornado"
(A-100 and PHL-03), it is without the help of others made MLRS WS-2 with a range of 200 km. Developed a modification of its WS-2D, shooting for 400 km. Each setting is from 6 to 9 missiles, including up to 3 specific homing UAVs. So Makarov, this system significantly outperforms TTX as "Twister" and the South American MLRS, combining in itself the properties of MLRS and operational-tactical missile systems (PTRC) and providing the possibility of putting a massive fire destruction of the second echelon of the enemy from their own home front. The total number of MLRS in the PLA of 2.5 million, and not only not reduced, but even increased.
Until next time, the "Achilles' heel" of the PLA Army was Army Aviation. Now it is not just growing on all fronts (namely went to a series of attack helicopter WZ-10), but declared the conversion of funds in support of the main striking force of the Army. A similar transformation is likely only in the framework of an offensive military doctrine.
In this connection it should allocate fundamentally moment. Received development in the countries of the West (first — in the United States) the concept of network-centric warfare is seen as a candidate of the classical mass army. Since the introduction of network-centric increases the effectiveness of weapons and equipment, it is believed that through this can significantly reduce their number. With all of this often drop out of sight of the fact that increases the efficiency of the implementation of network-centric combat potential, but not the potential. That is, for example, if the tank has 50 ammunition shells, in any way he can not hit more than 50 targets.
China was fundamentally different policy, which is formulated as a combination of "mechanization" and "information", ie, lasting development of the classical mass army with the building of high-quality and quantitative abilities to conduct a large-scale conventional war, with all this in a classic mass army is widely understood to implement the principles and methods of network-centric warfare. So makarom if Western countries to increase efficiency, reduce potential, China is increasing both the capacity and efficiency of its use. This combination will automatically PLA of strongest army in the world in a very short run.
NATURAL need to expand Places
So makarom if NATO reduces its own offensive capabilities, the PLA its rapidly increasing, with all classes of vehicles. And not only in general, and, outstripping growth in the advanced areas. First, new appliances (especially tanks) comes in Shenyang and Beijing military neighborhood, the first of which focuses on our Far East, the second — on the Trans-Baikal region. In the second place goes to the techniq
ue Tszinnansky IN (internal district, which is a reserve for other districts and testing ground for new weapons and methods of their implementation) and Lanzhou BO (focused on Central Asia and Western Siberia). Even "antitayvansky" Nanjing IN spoiled by attention significantly less than the "anti-Russian" neighborhood. And two of the southern neighborhood of the PLA military equipment produced as a residual, besides their general no tank units.
And the nature of combat training fits into the big picture. In the past 5 years, the PLA often conducts large-scale exercises the Army and Air Force, which are processed offensive depth of 1.5-2 km by several thousand compounds or even associations. In the scenario of the exercise in no way impossible to discern any rehearsal landing on Taiwan, nor a reflection of the South American assault, domestic violence or oppression.
As can be seen, if the actions of NATO does not appear to be any real signs of preparation for the anger, the actions of China — all signs of such training. Especially since the main features to the above, you can add a number of additional
So, in the last couple of years in the big cities of China unfolded general building underground shelters with a total tonnage of several million people. Chinese management gives this building defiantly absurd explanation: shelters designed to protect against earthquakes! Since at least some people, at least a little familiar with the basics of seismology or civilian defense knows that the earthquake could be an underground shelter only and only a mass grave, a similar explanation can not be considered anything else, apart from a direct call to Washington and Moscow — Beijing is not afraid of a nuclear attack and prepare for it in advance.
Immediately made in China's strategic oil supplies of 180 million tonnes (about 40% of annual consumption), 2020 is meant to bring those supplies to 800 million tonnes (by that time, apparently, so will the amount of annual consumption). Usually these supplies are for war. It is believed that China is afraid of cutting the South American naval communications from Africa and the Near East, from where China receives most of its oil. Formally, it really can be. But because at the moment China is building oil pipelines extensively from Russia and Central Asia, which the Americans certainly will not be able to cut. Why then such huge supplies?
There is also another very exciting moment. China stands ready to rescue the euro (that is, in fact, the whole EU project) by the repurchase of debt obligations over troubled EU countries — Greece, Portugal and Spain. With all of this raises one important condition — the removal of the embargo on the export of Europe instruments in China. Neuzh that Beijing is still a lot of guns? For what it is now also European?
In the end, it should be noted that the part of the Chinese military doctrine is the concept of "strategic borders and the current space", right justify keeping brutal wars. The concept was based on the view that the growth of population and limited natural resources is a need to expand space for the impending economic activities of the country and the growth of its "natural sphere of existence." It is understood that the territorial and spatial boundaries represent only the limits within which government with real power can "effectively protect their interests." "Strategic boundaries of contemporary space" should move with the growth of "comprehensive national power."
Would WAR IN CHINA?
Properties of PLA in a real fight has not been verified with the aforementioned war with Vietnam in 1979 In general, in the war with the psychology of the Chinese fighter, everything was fine, prisoner they actually gave up the attack on the Vietnamese guns were properly. In the past since the age of 32 the PLA changed on internal structure, now it is dominated by educated urban youth, but did not receive in the best case, the initial formation of peasant men. The fact is that China's conscript army, with all this there is a huge surplus of draft resources. The discussions that the PLA is only 0.2% of the population — it is the same foolishness as statements about the "small" military spending of China: China in a more peaceful time is not necessary, even this 0.2% yield the largest army in the world. Because the Chinese can afford to call himself the luxury of the best (in general, undrafted receiving military training in the reserve, which is about 20 times more than a standing army.) Whether citizens retain the old resistance in battle — hard to say. This goes against the fact that they are a generation of "little emperors", the only kids in the family, so it is very pampered. On the other hand, as indicated by the study of Chinese web, specifically in the middle of the urban educated youth is very high level of chauvinism and anger towards foreigners who are always "hurt" China and continue to, allegedly, do it at the moment. In general, there is not the smallest fluctuations in the fact that the Chinese and the city will fight the war, at least, better than the Europeans and hardly worse than the Americans.
Of course, in China can not be political problems that exist in NATO. At least since the PRC — is one totalitarian country, not 28 democratic. With all of this to mean especially a very significant impact generals on domestic and foreign policy. Even in the Soviet Union, not to mention contemporary of, nothing like that happened. It is significant that the main leadership positions in China is not as chairman of the PRC, and not even post of General Secretary of CPC Central Committee, and as Chairman of the Central Military Commission. It only took her, he becomes a real favorite of the country.
Now more fundamentally question — why China commit anger against Russia?
Discussion of China's internal problems could dedicate at least one more same article. In the shortest version of the situation is followed properly. With the upcoming growth of China's economy and the welfare of its population (which is two times more than the population of the U.S. and the EU taken together) in the very foreseeable future, China does not have the resources not only of their own country (they do not have long enough), and the entire Earth. Here it is necessary to highlight that China's economy — is, first, the economy of production, not service economy, as in the West. Because raw materials it needs to disproportionately and the growth rate of its use is even higher than in the West. In addition, continued unabated economic growth could lead to a true ecological disaster that will affect not only China, but the whole world. But the slowdown will inevitably lead to aggravation of the social problems — a significant increase in unemployment (which is already very large) and a fall in the actual level of the population (despite the fact that a significant portion of China's population lives as before in the last poverty and believes that is not very many of the triumphant Chinese reform). The problem is most serious is a big gap in income and social security between town and country and between the developed and underdeveloped coastal hinterland. No upcoming extensive growth to reduce these gaps is unreal, and their build-up can lead to social upheaval of strongest.
At the base of all these problems is the latest country overcrowding, compounded by the fact that almost all of China's population lives on half of its territory where the loa
d on the environment and infrastructure is prohibitive. Conducted since the late 70's policy of "one family — one child" is enforced. But in-1's, she produced, in fact, only in the cities, which further increases the gap in living standards, in-2, generates two most pressing social problems — the aging of the population in the criteria is very weak development of the pension system and the " shortage of brides "(numerically significant excess of boys and young men over teen sex and girls in the younger age groups). In the end, there is a situation where, on the one hand, the policy of "one family — one child" should not just continue, but to tighten on the other hand, it must be immediately canceled. In general, Chinese plexus problems is that the solution of one affects the other.
In China, it is already realized and more openly they say that before China is a choice between a social disaster, passing in the civilian war, and the outer expansion to capture resources and territories. There is no third such candid reality, nothing to do with ideology or the type of socio-economic system. The fact that China, if he does not want to get a plainclothes war, you need to prepare for a brutal war, it was very true to the written published two years back the book "China is unhappy!" Expressing, in the views of the majority of professionals, world control PLA.
Why the West will not lock raw materials, and China will be? Is this not a double standard?
1. China raw material is more necessary because, as mentioned above, its economy — an economy of production, rather than the service sector, and the population is twice more than in the West.
2. West buys raw materials for its currency, which, in the latter case, you can print, China — for someone else (a western).
3. Raw materials for China soon will not be enough on the physical level. He will not be able to purchase required, it will have otymat available on the already divided markets. Or the prices of raw materials will be such that the war is still going to happen.
4. For Western countries to buy cheaper raw materials than to capture. Operation to capture and, more importantly, retain captured in the criteria for reduction of military capabilities, increase spending on personnel, mental, demobilization and democratic governance are so expensive in the literal and figurative sense, which are not feasible. China also solves the issue even easier, especially because it requires not only resources, and terrain. The degree of sensitivity to the loss of the Chinese really is not comparable to the west. Occupation functions in the occupied territories will produce farmers, of which China currently has 674.1 million the same time they will live in these areas. At this point in the 1st farmer in China has the least 0.07 hectares of arable land, the family may have less than 2-babies. In the occupied territories, these restrictions can be removed. If any family will receive automatic rifle, the occupation functions in relation to the local population will be carried out very well.
EXPANSION AREA — NORTH
As for the direction of expansion, we can not build that Eastern Siberia and the Far East of Russia hold a vast territory and natural resources in a very small, with a rapidly shrinking population. A similar situation exists in Kazakhstan. In Indochina (another possible direction of Chinese expansion), the situation is right around the back (not a lot of areas and resources with the highest density of the indigenous population). By capturing these countries, China only insignificant extent solves the problem of lack of resources, and the problem of overpopulation and lack of arable land is even more exacerbated by, and the new population would be disloyal to Beijing (in particular this applies to Vietnam, which has provided a very successful experience of warfare , both conventional and guerrilla, including against China).
A well-known fact denial threat of Chinese expansion is the fact that half of the area of China in fact has not been developed (94% of China's population lives on 46% of its area) because OUTDOOR expansion stupid. In addition, often stating that the climatic conditions in Siberia and the Far East (the first — the lowest temperature in winter) is not acceptable for the Chinese. In this regard it may be noted that Tibet, which occupies nearly a third of China's countryside, is one of the toughest places to live in the world (in this respect it can be compared, perhaps, to Antarctica). It is located at an average altitude of four thousand meters above sea level. Because of the shortcomings of oxygen for the vast majority of people as either long-living there does not seem likely. In addition, the criteria of extreme high altitude can be no harsh economic activity. So Makarov, "master" Tibet in terms of its mass settlement and economic development of China never fails to advance. The climate conditions in the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region (XUAR), occupied by the Gobi Desert and the Taklimakan, better only in terms of the availability of sufficient oxygen. Against the background of Xinjiang, not to mention Tibet, the climate and the Trans-Baikal Amur and conditions for agriculture immeasurably better, and in the Maritime region as they are comfortable even on how standards. Even better Yakutia Tibet as well as the best extreme cold six months than the lack of oxygen constantly (even more so that a significant part of Tibet is also located in the area of endless permafrost). It may be noted that now the Chinese migrants in the cities of Yakutia are kept under the control of a large part of trade, with all year round.
In this regard, a number of observations. In some works of Russian refutation of the thesis of the Chinese referred to the danger that China, even in the time of greatest helplessness of the Russian Federation (immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union) has not taken any action aimed at weakening its forthcoming. Meanwhile, not very clear about what specific actions it is possible. Yes, China has not done military aggression against Russia, but on this occasion it may be noted that in the early 90's. The twentieth century. Forces were even stronger than the current time, and the People's Liberation Army — is much weaker than the current time. So Makar, China had no real ability to commit anger, and did not show "good will". With all this it is fully used the weakness of, forming a very profitable and unprofitable for themselves RF temper economic relations and made the basis for demographic expansion.
To refute the thesis of the dangers of Chinese also often used the claim that China is so busy solving domestic problems, he was "not up to the expansion." With all of this absolutely ignored that judgment, that the expansion is not a "whim" of China, and the need to specifically address its internal problems.
Enjoying a very popular polemical technique "lawyers" China is the statement that "fan the myth" of the Chinese danger is unacceptable, as the conflict between Russia and China benefit the United States. On this occasion it is possible to note that, with regard to the relations of 3 of these more powerful states of the world for at least some of them fairly profitable conflict between the 2 other. In particular, China is beneficial conflict between Russia and the United States. It is significant that our home or at the level of official statements, whether at the level of scientific papers has never been considered the management and professionals of China as a potential ally against the United States. But more fundamentally point in this nuance is that the premise of China's t
hreat to the Russian Federation are not the interests of the United States, and specific trends in China itself, to which the United States does not have at least as much as in any significant impact. In other words, the Chinese threat to the Russian Federation takes place quite independently of whether beneficial Russian-Chinese conflict for the United States or not, are the basis of its incidents are not a political, social and economic nature.
COUNTRY WITH REDUCED PAIN THRESHOLD
After the military reform in Russia in the main strategic directions we have established the subsequent situation. Strength of the new Southern IN, in general, appropriate to the situation on its own theater, as Georgia defeated and restored, and the war with Turkey (or as a member of NATO, or as a separate essence) to as long as it is very difficult (although in the future it is possible) . Central VO does not have access to the borders of the possible opponents and is, in fact, the spare. West TO formally very much inferior to NATO forces, but due to the described in the preceding paragraph of the real state of the alliance can be considered small enough (even more so when it suddenly go down on the war with NATO, our armed forces will need to add a very strong Belarusian army) . And just to the east is unacceptable. The forces of the Eastern BO (as Army and Air Force) are now comparable with the forces of the Shenyang and Beijing IN PLA. With all of this and the ability to gain faction sides also comparable. Length communications coming from the north China depth even less than the Trans resistance against enemy even higher, and the total throughput is higher by orders of magnitude. Very symptomatic that the first of the global financial crisis in Russia the government Upload a maximum of funds into the banking system, and one of the main victims of cuts was the construction of roads (and which have not prospered). But the Chinese government has invested heavily in this period heavily in infrastructure, namely, significantly expanded network of high-speed steel and auto roads. And on the above exercises PLA constantly worked through diversion of significant troop train for long distances and auto transport.
Because there is fundamentally a question — to what extent effectively against China, nuclear deterrence, as at today's ratio of conventional forces us to assign more than that? Obviously, to give a concrete answer to this question is not realistic. We can only make some judgments.
1. Nuclear weapon should be the last reason of concern for the case when other reasons are exhausted. We, unfortunately, have maneuvered themselves into a situation where this reason the first and only (at least the last — in relation to China), which is very dangerous.
2. China also has a nuclear weapon, the size of its nuclear arsenal is not even known about. References in Russian and Western sources the number of several hundred warheads, and several 10-s intermediate range ballistic missiles (IRBM) and intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), quite naturally, have no relationship to life, creating weapons in quantities just does not make sense . Even if you ignore the drives in some Russian literature values of 40 thousand charges and more than 1,000 ICBM and IRBM can not fluctuate, the number of charges in China is comparable to shorten the arsenals of Russia and the United States, the number of IRBM and ICBM pre exceed 100.
3. Our homeland has IRBM (under contract with the U.S. from 1987), and China confidently takes the first place in the world in the number of missiles in this class. Russia must share the same strategic nuclear deterrence to produce both China and the United States, despite the fact that, with regard to China our range of ICBMs and SLBMs sverhizbytochna.
4. The ratio in the potentials of tactical nuclear weapons (TNW) between Russia and China is unclear. With all of this it should be noted that China has an advantage in their tremendous media, with several thousand launchers, tactical and operational-tactical missiles with a range of 150-600 km against only 100 (for the whole Russia!) Tactical systems "Tochka-U" , the range of which is only 120 km. In addition, carriers svobodnopadayuschih nuclear bombs, China can use older planes H-5, Q-5, J-6, of which a PLA Air Force Reserve may be 2-3 million with all the technical poverty of these machines break through our defense, they just due to the quantity (loss of even half of airplanes will not become a problem of China). In addition, it should be understood that the exchange of tactical nuclear strikes and ours, and Chinese charges will explode in our area.
5. For the U.S., not to mention Europe, an explosion at their locality even 1st nuclear charge at least some power is completely unacceptable. China will survive the blow even before a 10-s nuclear weapons in the border area.
6. Certainly unacceptable harm to China is a massive nuclear attack on the towns of the south-east of the country. But on such hit Beijing in advance will give an answer in the form of a nuclear attack on the towns of European Russia, which he does not need to capture.
So Makar, efficiency factor of nuclear deterrence against China refers, first, to the field of psychology. Management of China may imagine that our home is not just a risk to inflict a massive blow to China because of the fear response. In particular, if Beijing can help Moscow save face. In this regard, you need to pay attention to the words of the above-mentioned book "China is unhappy!": "We must first either, first, to ensure the interests of China. Need to work to ensure that China took the place of the older and able to manage all of our world. … What are the goals of China in the future? China, of course, has to dispose of bolshennymi resources and areas in the world, here I am not asking them to join our area of the country, I mean the administration and management. "
So Makar, capturing the countryside, Beijing, maybe it would not seek a legal connection to China. It will be quite effective control over it. Accordingly, the reverse side, in this case seems to be not lost, because on the map the border remains in place.
In fact, the whole question of the ability of Chinese expansion is a significant degree of mental disposition. Obviously, China will prefer to take the terrain and resources without war, by economic and demographic expansion. But it is clear that this can only be in this case, if the only candidate "peaceful" military expansion becomes angry. That's why Beijing knows less about their own "peaceful intentions" and more openly shows the growth of military power.
Apparently, the attempt by our officials and the majority of professionals in silence the fact of a natural hazard despite the facts and go for the biggest concessions in China's political and economic spheres explains the fear of "angry" China. In that case, there can be seen as unwarranted attribution management of China's motives irrational anger, opportunities to commit offenses motivated by anger. In fact, to this day management of the PRC in all cases showed only a high degree of pragmatism. That's why even more reason to believe that if the question of the danger of Chinese and measures to parry will open a discussion in Russia not only at the level of individual creators, and at the official level and at least some counter-measures to the same will be implemented, it will not increase and reduce the risk of anger, as in the leadership of the PRC usvoyut that "the game is not worth the trouble" and need to find other areas of expansion. It may be only in thi
s case the cost of aggression against the Russian Federation to China will be the highest so that there will be no excuse, in any way (even if the risk of internal crash in China).
In order to achieve this result, you need quite naturally, strengthening the defense. In 1-x, ligaments strategic nuclear forces and air defense. Maybe, you need a way out of the contract by the INF, which in today's criteria simply binds our hands. In-2, you need to seriously strengthen the mundane forces in East military environment. Nuclear weapon really should be the last argument, not the first and only one. In addition, the need to create international alliances with reciprocal obligations to protect each other. As the war in South Ossetia in 2008, NATO is not dangerous to us as the enemy, and worthless as an ally (which it showed by his behavior towards Georgia). A necessary ally for us to become Kazakhstan (in this case, the CSTO at anything), Mongolia, India and Vietnam.
So Makar, the forthcoming silence about the "Chinese" problem contributes to its aggravation and reduces the ability of parry. A similar situation with respect to so severe for the country's security issue is unacceptable.