On these and other issues in the transmission of "Examination of Freedom" meet analyst Yuri Chausov and the head of analytical projects BelaPAN Alexander Klaskouski.
"Ministers have clung to the leadership of Belarus, not because we are lack of democracy, but because these ministers incorrect orientation."
Tsigankov: His statements Lukashenko went on that line, which he develops in relations with the West after the presidential election — the line on the conflict, to the deterioration of relations. "I do not care for all their comments. This is evil and indecent people. Since they can neither speak nor to build relationships — said Alexander Lukashenko, referring to the critical reaction of the West to the first sentence of exhibition space.
What do these statements? Or burn all bridges Belarusian ruler in relations with the West, or just raises the stakes in the future political bargaining with Europe? How risky such a policy?
Klaskouski: If Lukashenko says "do not care", it means exactly the opposite. The head of state for a long time been absent from the public, and now need to show the public that it does not bend before anyone is going to that one, "we do not tilt."
Now comes the demonstration phase of repression, but then somehow have crushed broken glass, and begin again the dialogue with the West, because you need money, investment, political support, and so on. Conducted a test trial Parfiankou (to see what will be the reaction of the West), and that's just today decided to continue for 5 months of preliminary investigation. Pauses to look at implementing the West about its threats of sanctions.
By the way, why were selected Parfiankou person with a criminal record, so little to tie the hands of the West in this respect. Minsk soil probes and monitors how the West would react.
Tsigankov: Can it be said that his harsh words about the homosexual minority is running that Lukashenko Belarusian electorate? Does that mean that now domestic policy, support of the electorate at any price it is more important for the losses in foreign policy, which result from such statements?
KlaskouskiCertainly. Indeed, the Belarusian leadership was scared increased political activity of Belarusians, and now the main task — to put the genie back in the bottle, to raise the level of fear in the community. Besides, it is necessary to explain to the people that the West is treacherous and insidious. And even better — move the arrow.
When the topic of sexual orientation is raised, it acts on the part of the society in which there is little reliable information about the requirements of Europe and the high level of homophobia. These people entered into the brains that some ministers have clung to the leadership of Belarus, not because we are lack of democracy, but because these ministers incorrect orientation.
It's rough, nedyplyamatychny trick, but it works in a low political culture.
"To the credit of Western politicians in assessing sentence Parfiankou were very clear emphases"
TsigankovQ: Can I say that Lukashenko is preparing for quite a long Cold War with the West?
Chausov: Naturally, the addressee of these statements Lukashenko Belarusian voters there. If the trade regarding political prisoners, mutual concessions will actually begin, it will not be carried out in public statements and behind the scenes, through those people who actually designed by the West as negotiators (those who do not the three of the list of restricted to travel abroad).
As for the criticism of Western politicians who have expressed outrage at the first sentence, here we see another no-trade, and the balance of the parties' positions on the eve of the negotiation process. Minsk will say — "we treat these people as criminals who carried out the riots. You, the West treats them wrong. "
Thus, we can expect a fairly long period of recrimination that will change with time by mutual concessions. But the concessions will take place on the basis of secret negotiations.
I think that the Belarusian leaders were unpleasantly surprised by the sharp reaction about the verdict Mr Parfiankou. It looks like they were expecting a milder reaction, since this is not a presidential candidate, not the chief of staff, and the usual activist allegedly with radical past. But to the credit of Western politicians here have been accurately placed the emphasis that this is a political judgment, Porfenkov is a political prisoner. Now the Belarusian regime will be more difficult to sketch a brand criminals on the politicians.
"The appearance of power that could destroy the black-and-white picture, it might be the aspirations of the Belarusian society"
Tsigankov: While answering questions from journalists Lukashenko also spoke about the opposition. It was made two key points. First, Lukashenko is trying to implement in the minds of Belarusians wording — "the opposition — this is war."
The second point Lukashenko — of the possibility of a constructive opposition. "He wants to appear constructive opposition — even appear. I want the people in our country not only in the kitchen whispering and discussing something, I want people to like the real Belarusian, decent, discuss issues, "- said Lukashenko
Will the power to create a pocket opposition? Or choose someone from the existing movements will create a new one? Or the power to let it drift?
Klaskouski: Definitely — the power to chance it will not start. It will be a controlled process. Somewhere closer to the parliamentary elections of 2012 the issue is updated. Earlier Lidia Yarmoshyna said that perhaps those elections will be held on party lists.
Naturally, there is a ready-made project, so to speak, "frozen foods," the organization "Belaya Rus", which is very easy to deploy in the game. It is not enough, and so I think there a number of controlled lots.
On the other hand, it contributes to conceptual crisis in the ranks of the opposition. Splits, search for enemies, "traitors" caused this. The opposition was divided into the "compromisers" and "radicals" — such labels these groups hang on each other. And this contributes to the fact that the government may allocate "constructive leaders" of that number, and begin to implement the option "putsinizatsyi" that is controlled democracy.
TsigankovDuring online at our website former presidential candidate Vital Rymasheuski said that he would like to join, but
it is difficult to associate with those who do not fight with the regime, and helps him. Will develop this section of the Belarusian opposition?
Chausov: The division in Belarusian society into black and white, those behind Lukashenko, and those against — this is what is broadcast together, together as leaders of the opposition and the ruling regime. But it is very profitable mode — to maximize the barricade that separates the Belarusian society, to simplify the picture.
If you're talking about the possibility of dialogue, then you're like Lukashenko. It only remains uncompromising match, radical methods of struggle. Surprisingly, there is some opposition leaders and Lukashenko complement each other.
In fact, the picture in the Belarusian society is another more complicated. Pay attention to the comments of normal participation Square on December 19. Many of them said they did not prefer any candidate, but for the alternative — a non-violent and moderate.
It seems to me that the emergence of a kind of power that could destroy this black-and-white picture, would be for the aspirations of the Belarusian society. Otherwise, under the dichotomy of "power-opposition" is waiting for us for many election cycles per sample, "the struggle, repression, negotiations with the West and fight again."