Our homeland and the WTO: to make history — or plunge?

Russia and the WTO: to make history - or plunge?July 10, the State Duma approved the protocol on Russia's accession to the global trade organization. Approved to fight. Against joining the WTO by name made all the Duma opposition (208 deputies: the Communists, and eldepeerovtsy "spravedlivorossy"). 1 member abstained, and the other 238 deputies uttered "yes" to the document.

"The most Edged by discussion — writes "Rossiyskaya Gazeta", — Was the question of state support of agriculture, veterinary and phytosanitary controls, quotas for the supply of food products, duties on tree species, also the question of the industrial assembly of cars. The negotiation process has come to a standstill in 2006, when our country has raised import duties on tree species, from 6.5 to 25%. EU countries have embraced this initiative is very painful and delivered an ultimatum: if the fee will not decrease, the EU will not give their own consent to Russia's accession to the WTO. As a result, the rate temporarily frozen, but for all that Moscow has warned that rates will increase in 2012 to 80% when the question of accession to the WTO will stall again. "

It is expected that in September 2012 Our homeland to join the WTO.

It is better to be Russia after joining the company, or worse? This question is asked a lot for yourself. Some of them, listening to the furious create goodwill patriotic professionals and analysts about the future of complete collapse of Russian economy and the ultimate death of the industry in the case of Russia's entry into the WTO and sharp competitive struggle in the true spirit of social Darwinism, nodding their heads in agreement symbol, yes, it will be bad. Quite bad. Even worse than you already have. Others, who are the main supporters of the openness of the economy and the widespread Western-style liberalism, in contrast, claimed to be optimistic: it will be better, and not just better, but absolutely fine, just need to wait a little, not all at once.

Trust in stride, without thinking, neither the first nor even the second, who run the state more than 2-10-s years, something not hunt. Weaned we trust advisers and analysts — and ensure the relevance of the matter is that the experience accumulated since the time of restructuring.

Let's try to figure it out for yourself. And try to do it objectively — not nodding or first-advisers opponents or second-compromisers analysts. Minds will be on Wed.

***

Point first. We do not know much about the negotiations that led our motherland with the WTO. Yes there are "many" — in fact, does not know anything. If there are only ones who know about the negotiations and all the criteria, then I'm ready to take off his hat to them.

In the meantime, fellow Kolomeytsev, State Duma deputy, was able to briefly express, I think, overall outlook: "Someone obviously hunt to get into the story, but I wish to recall that 17-year-old negotiations to join the WTO were held behind closed doors, and now most of the people who will vote for the ratification of the Protocol of Accession to the WTO, do not read and do not know these documents, which are more than 400 pages. " It is he, incidentally, about the voting deputies said so.

In this case (if not read four pages), of course, it is better to vote "against".

This is the point in the review I give because I believe: read "yes" or "no" to strongly think about. About the same "go down in history," say one thing: the famous gentlemen Chubais, Gaidar and Yeltsin entered it. Acid from it will not corrode.

Item second. This item is for no one is lurking. Predictions about a "minus" or "plus" will leave our homeland after the entry a lot, but all of them — just a hypothesis. Essentially it as "a first time in first class," Who knows, like or do not like the school to learn … By the way, joining the WTO does not mean that the conditions in this organization can not be peretorgovyvat. It is possible. On it and trade organization, to bargain. No matter what a country participating in the WTO obligations may reconsider its own role. For example, this is going to do most of Ukraine, which is not liked by the WTO: two more years to reverse the country's economy minister Tsushko recognized: An introduction to the published criteria unprofitable. Were zeroed duties on 12,000 products. The difference between the import and export of products in 2010 grew by 1.6 times — of course, in favor of imports. And there is no price reduction for you. Compared with 2007, in 2010 the loss suffered pig (pork imports increased by 2.3 times), manufacturers of vegetable oil, sugar, vegetables, and wine. Economic loss amounted to an estimated 7.8 billion. hryvnia. And another drawback — appeared in the country 250 thousand unemployed.

So Makarov, Ukraine now knows that being in the WTO on certain criteria for it — bad. And it's going to bargain for better terms. Let's lay, she will succeed.

Paragraph third. It must be said about the losses incurred by our homeland from WTO: after a direct result of the entry will be lowering of duties on imported products.

Economic Development Minister Andrei Belousov told about the State Duma deputies. Direct losses from the reduction of imported duties after Russia's accession to the WTO in 2013 are estimated at 188 billion worth strshnuyu. rub., and in 2014 — still more strshnuyu — 257000000000. rubles. But the actual harm to the budget, he said, would be much lower, "We believe that the real loss will be much less due to the growth of trade and, therefore, increase the tax base." Belousov also said that as part of the negotiation process for accession Our homeland uttered to himself the right to direct subsidies to agriculture to 9000000000. dollars a year, which is almost twice the existing needs of the industry. Belousov promised to keep the mechanism for subsidizing interest rates related to the support of the Russian agricultural machine. The program of support to continue, it has to be only a "reformat".

To join the WTO Our homeland has pledged up to transition to lower the weighted average tariff rate on imported products to 7.8% from 10% in 2011. The average agricultural tariff will reduce from the current 13.2% to 10.8%, the weighted average tariff on imported manufactured goods — from 9.5% to 7.3%. Average protective (protectionist) tariffs will be reduced by 3.5 percentage Fri, with a number of branches will decrease only after 5-7 years.

Fourth paragraph. As for the benefits of joining, the Global Bank Renders RF rosy picture, ie, predicts the country's benefit in the amount of as much as 49 billion. U.S. — but not immediately, and for three years after accession. As for the long-term prognosis, it is generally fantastic 162 billion. dollars over 10 years.

In general, the prophets of the Lord money WB admit that not all sectors of the Russian economy will benefit. Many lose. For example, for 3 years at 3% decrease agricultural production. Consolation for the sake of global bankers promise to grow by 9%. But with the slip of th
e tongue: Growth likely if our home well take advantage of membership in the organization. And it seems the bankers in this range. Certainly, judging by the example of Ukraine, where just some agriculture industry at large illiterate using membership injured. Well, you need to pay tribute to analysts of the World Bank: Russia warned.

Another little positive: estimated, Russian business costs should be reduced by approximately 15-18 billion. bucks just because of the configuration of the customs rules. It is not only our home will lower their fees — and she will meet new business friends and comrades.

Item fifth. Let's we'll see, which Russian industry will suffer from the entry, and what — there are miracles — will be able to win.

Oil and gas companies, according to their own views (for example, "Gazprom") is unlikely to lose, but it is unlikely to win.

Beef ultimately Russia's entry into the WTO will be more and it will get better and cheaper, but the fate of the Russian beef producers may have little will change for the worse.

In pig breeding, according to breeders, too, will be hit. Again the same, other analysts believe that consumers of such shock will benefit. Strshnym pessimist was Yuri Kovalev, general director of the State Union of pig. This fellow predicted a sharp increase in imports of live pigs, so as customs duty on them will be reduced from 40% to 5%. Loss of industrial pig production by Kovalev could add up to $ 200 billion. rub.

With chickens and other poultry government negotiators did quite correctly: as if he had forgotten about the "Bush legs", not even uttered export quotas. And it is at this moment there is a reduction of "ptitseproizvodstva" in the country.

In Automotive our, of course, lose. A benefit Chinese who collect a / m virtually all known global brands, plus its not the best way, "Lifan" and "Cheri".

Russian furniture market die like this.

The same applies to the market of household products. In general, it is already almost dead.

The sad fate awaits the textile market: more than 80% have at the moment — import, the main sleaze of China (the 2nd place on the cheap and not quite cheap — Turkey).

Hmm … Not in vain fellow Kolomeytsev hinted that many, they say, are not familiar with 400 sheets of opening the document. The benefit? .. Probably our homeland finds no economic benefit from WTO accession, but just wants friendship — because they wanted about her cat Leopold of mice. The Chinese and the West will be happy to be friends with Russia — but not as mentioned Russian cartoon character, but because Tom and Jerry.

Here Vietnam only the first year of membership in the WTO halts 60000000000. Bucks foreign capital. And now there is going to camera «Pentax», cellular telefonchiki «Samsung» and batteries for uninterrupted power supply. Our homeland wants to walk on Vietnam?

Item second. Here we try to answer the question: Why join something?

Reply imposed itself: to make it better than it is at the moment. So that consumers have more high-quality and cheap products, and manufacturers, successfully competing with the western and eastern unsuccessful rivals were able to make their products better, so that foreigners would raise the presser foot and left the market. Future benefits would have to lure as ministers of the ministries, and the owners of the companies, which will be revealed in front of a tempting prospect to act on the fact that neither has a global market without any restrictions there, amendments, and protective duties.

Any benefits are as controversial faster than the visible, and the amendments to the Russian Federation, the West will always be. Not counting the Russian Federation in the WTO no one will defend Russia. Survives more adapted, wrote friend Herbert Spencer, for whom the word "evolution" said thank you friend Charles Darwin.

Possible and on the other answer: Russia being dragged into the WTO then, that "fifth column" was able to realize his long-held dream Westernist: destroy Mother Russia, giving her at the mercy of the capitalist wolves and carnivorous sharks. Either the bulls and bears in the stock exchange if the definitions — whatever you like.

But times Russian "iron curtain" that had elapsed. If our homeland longs to act on the world market as a full player, it will have to accept the rules of the market itself. Worthless to go to Tula with the samovar.

Therefore entry the WTO should not be viewed until the one in terms of benefits and losses — will be those, and others, and the year after three or four it will become clear whether the fatter plus, minus a longer — and you need to take into account the historical necessity. Simply put, the government is committed to keep pace with time.

The idea of praise, but at a measured pace and keeping the alignment, it is necessary to try to keep up with the others: to utter a maximum of benefits and minimum losses. Also, do not forget that the left and the right in the world trade building a clang teeth hungry wolves. The Chinese, for example, prefer that the world market was full of steel, not Russian.

***

Finally — a little healthy pessimism.

Personally, I do not think that in itself is the entry into the WTO has a positive effect on the development of our industry, which suddenly comes to life and develops within a few years. Such statements can often hear from our "Westerners" — say, competition will force the WHA to make high quality "Lada" and the market will be cheap Russian microprocessors, which over time will supersede Intel and AMD. No, this I can not believe, I believe in the fact that "Lada" in general lost. WHA and earlier could learn to make cars better. High-tech industry as we have no respect: we have super-profits — not tomorrow, but right now. So slowly, as «Hewlett-Packard», we do not want. And in general, we round economists, managers, lawyers, and engineers, we need quite a bit — this out, and the new Minister of Education said this morning. A «Hewlett-Packard» started with engineers.

No matter how big a branch, even trade and raw materials, for which most of the brain is not necessary (Lomonosov in his time would be better to keep silent about the "grow through Siberia"), is in need of continuous development, constant investment, as a serious state support. We know about Stalin's industrialization, and we understand how to create in Russia industrial enterprise Peter I. He instituted stringent protective tariffs under the then "mercantilism", issued interest-free loans from the Treasury by the then "new Russian" (though there was little issued 100 thousand rubles — the price of one big factory), built and transferred to private hands factories — for example, in 1699 he initiated were built ironworks factory on the river Neveu, and then, in 1702, given to Nikita Demidov (former blacksmith from Tula) — in other words, did everything exactly opposite to what is done at the moment. Incidentally, Our homeland Under Peter the first time did not buy a gun Europe.

Of course, now, in the criteria for an open world economy of the XXI century, it is hard to think of "mercantilism". According to another would not be very profitable to sell products to neighbors, consisting in the WTO, and of taking will be expensive. But coupled with the fact must be taken into account and the competitiveness and quality of many Russian products — and they are annoying though it may soun
d, leave much to be desired, not to mention the highest comparable cost, explained by the determining factor: cool climatic criteria, which increases the cost of creating or making less profitable agriculture, a large stretch of road is quite the highest wages (as opposed to Chinese).

Here we have a second reason for a healthy pessimism: if for a quarter of a century, we have almost learned how to create competitive — both in cost and in quality — products vpribavok destroying the Russian reserve, then why would we have learned to produce it, joining the WTO? Faster, just fill our market cheapened imported products. The difference between a member of the WTO, China and Russia will join the WTO is that the first has long been playing as a merchant, and the second will continue to play the unenviable role of the consumer.

Where are you, dear comrades, beheld on the shelves of Russian stores irons, telecom, cell or landline phones, electric kettles, hair dryers, coffee makers, hair clippers (not talking about the screw assembly)? .. And you see. Vacuum cleaners with intimidating names "Buran", "Vortex", "Rocket" is also a thing of the Russian past. Fortunately, even a bucket or pan of our production is still possible to buy. And here's a shovel — is problematic: all the Chinese, to break in two in half a month.

I wanted not so long ago purchased at surprisingly cheap "Russian" woodworking machine for himself in the village, but changed his mind and bought an expensive German plane: the fact that the Russian machine was only bed, and everything else, including the engine, and designed for voltage 230 volts, was Taiwanese. In the autumn chill, as it turned out, this motor will not start. I painted the picture is clear and without the WTO, and WTO, we are only drawings and will create: motors or something else will fall in price.

So what did we take the world market, not including oil, gas, timber, and, to an even lower level, the instruments that we often purchase the same on our loans — as, for example, makes an adventurous Venezuela? .. Where do we look for a breakthrough? Is that the sovereign Chubais, a liberal Nanotechnology of the number one, will give us godika 2-3 after all sorts of things-dryuchki, what has long been promised by spending state-owned billion (last year it brought nanokontora soilless losses already under three billion rubles). Anatoly Borisych lead us straight course to a bright future — and shine over Mother Russia nanozvezda under which our country by making the export of crude oil to become the number two in exports and the budget will go into a new period of its own happy stories.

Welcome to the WTO!

Oleg surveyed Chuvakin
— Especially for topwar.ru

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