Space provocation, similar in its surprise attack from Japan on Pearl Harbor in 1941, will result in 2050 of a new world war, which will take place on Earth, its immediate neighborhood, and even on the moon. On the political map of the world Russia.
This treacherous attack first reported American futurologist George Friedman … forty years before the events in vivid colors he described in his new book. According to the forecast of the writer, space provocation, similar in its surprise attack from Japan on Pearl Harbor in 1941, will result in 2050 of a new world war, which will take place on Earth, its immediate neighborhood, and even on the moon. Russia, fortunately, in this interplanetary massacre will not participate, because — and this is unfortunate — on the political map of the world there will be no such country.
Friedman scandalous book "The Next 100 Years: Forecast for the 21st Century» (The Next 100 years) went on sale a few months ago, but it caused a lot of noise in the States. So much so that a futuristic work of the founder of analytical agency Stratfor knows literally every item quite serious researchers. Another detailed review of the controversial writing of George Friedman appeared at the beginning of this week in the pages of the Internet publication Io9.com. Acquainted with the content of an article by Andrew Liptak on the site of the "NO" in the translation made by the agency InoSMI:
"Wear: according to a new book ahead of us return to the Cold War, the rise of new powers and full-scale space war. What are the chances that these terrifying predictions come true?
Chapters written by 20 years, the book is George Friedman (George Friedman) «The Next 100 Years» (The Next 100 years) is considering coming century in terms of geopolitics and international power. Friedman predicts that in the next twenty years, the global war on terror, which he calls the U.S. war against the jihadists, gradually disappear, and eventually becomes smaller conflicts that have little impact.
Instead, it will come to the surface of the many problems in the former Soviet bloc, while Russia will seek to regain its former power, restoring control over the old territories through economic growth and outright intimidation. In this sense, these events have already started to happen, especially if you look at last year's short war in Georgia and the recent outcry in Poland, when the United States decided to withdraw from the country of its missiles to appease and accommodate Russian concerns over missile defense on mobile platforms. However, Friedman believes that this growth will be short-lived, and predicts that although Russia will grow over the next decade or so later it will run out due to the reduction of the population and a weakening economy.
Friedman says that the decline in the birth rate bad for many countries — and explains that this is a side effect of turning the country into an industrial power. Pre-industrial countries need higher fertility rates to offset higher rates of infant mortality. Friedman argues that the transition to the status of industrial power people start work later, the level of health care is growing, and the need to have a lot of workers in the family falls — which reduces the need for large families.
Thus, a major source of conflict in this century, especially in the next fifty years, when the level of the population will begin to fall, will not immigrants illegally entering a country, and the rivalry of a new workers who can help support their economy and a weakening labor.
While major powers around the world, such as the United States and Russia, will face at this time of the economic downturn, small countries will take advantage of this opportunity for their own recovery. Friedman notes that the big ones will not be completely written off, and they still have to be considered — resulting in a conflict arises between the United States, which, in his view, will remain the most powerful country on the planet, and these new players. In particular, Friedman identifies three countries that will become the next major power in the 21st century: Turkey, Japan and Poland. He also said that other countries, such as Mexico, will be much more powerful in their regions.
Why these three? All of them currently have benefits that will help them in the coming decades. Japan's economy is once again slowly increasing. Friedman believes that China will collapse under the pressure of his speedy economic growth and rising domestic challenges that will allow Japan to become a regional leader. As evidence, Friedman draws attention to the examples of the past, when Japan managed to conquer Southeast Asia at various times in the history of this region.
As for Turkey, the country, sandwiched between Europe and the Middle East will become more and more important from a strategic point of view, and will become an important ally of the United States, while Russia will first expand and then collapse. Being in the center of the chaos in the Middle East, Turkey will be able to confront Russia and grow its economy — and much of its history, when it was known as the Ottoman Empire, Turkey has traditionally been a leader in this part of the world.
Finally, Poland allocated Friedman because she, in fact, is sandwiched between two rigid countries — Germany and Russia. Fearing both, Poland will seek to expand its influence, to the extent that, as Russia is consolidating its power at the center. Because of its location Poland was subjected to numerous raids on the part of both countries, and will also receive U.S. support as strengthening of Russia as a strategically important location. It is possible that the missile defense system will still be there installed.
At this point Friedman calls for space flight, which will become an inevitable step in the development of many countries, and how these operations are related to the strategic needs of the country. He argues that the United States is able to maintain its dominant position in the world, due to its military and economic power. An important tool in the U.S. arsenal is the ability to monitor every inch of the planet, obtained by the development of satellites and tracking technology over the past fifty years. Other countries will inevitably develop (if not already developed) their own space programs with this same purpose, and will seek to prevent the United States to do the same. At the same time, the U.S. will seek to identify best practices for tracking, including large systems, with teams of hundreds of people. In the coming decade (2020-2050), many countries will use the Moon for scientific and defense purposes, as openly or secretly.
Friedman predicts that these changes in the balance of power will lead to the inevitable conflict between the United States and the three emerging powers, which are integrated in a broad coalition. To undermine the American orbital systems, Japan will attempt (Thanksgiving, somewhere around the year 2050) to destroy one of these orbital platforms with attacks from the moon in order to maximize the element of shock and surprise. All this is very reminiscent of the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941 and will lead the country to war. In the face of the destruction of key military asset the United States entered the war, as happened in the case of Pearl Harbor, the USS "Maine» (USS Maine, whose death from an explosion that occurred under suspicious circumstances, caused the Spanish-American War of 1898 year — approx. Trans.) or the World Trade Center. U.S. strike back reserve forces that would destroy enemy satellites, while the soldiers were on lunar bases U.S. attacks Japanese soldiers. By this time, the U.S. will be able to enter into battle armed infantry, just like in many science fiction novels and movies.
In fact, the world would be at war, and in this conflict on the one hand will be Turkey and Poland (Turkey will fight for control of Europe), on the other hand, Japan, seeking to maintain control over Asia and the United States will be at war on two fronts. This war will be conducted in the Air Force, robots and better soldiers, and will depend on the electric grids and other resources, while the soldiers will fight on new battlefields across Europe and Asia. Space will be an important element, as it allows you to communicate and provides an opportunity to watch the battle from the bird's flight. Friedman theorizes that this time will be made breakthroughs in technology to directly use on the battle field microwave and solar energy, which may further change the future of the war.
Friedman believes that this war will last about two years, until 2052, when the coalition forces (Turkey and Japan) will be brought to the point when they start to threaten a nuclear strike. At this point, the United States will seek to force their enemies to demand peace, not destroy them with nuclear weapons. The final result will be a change in the balance of power in the Middle East and Asia, and at the peace conference will be new country. The United States will have greater control over space, and their economy will grow as a result of the war. After the war, the U.S. and its allies will flourish. War accelerated the evolution of capabilities and technologies, Friedman believes that this war will help in the development of space technologies, which in turn will affect the development of peaceful technologies. He notes that both happen revival of American culture, which spread throughout the world, as it did in the 50's and 70's of last century.
In the 2080s the United States will remain the economic and cultural center of influence. However, Friedman believes that this is the time to grow in Mexico, which will be the main rival of the United States in North America. This rise will be difficult for the United States as the country is home to a large ethnic group that identifies itself with Mexico and has easy access to their home country.
Progress in robotics will lead to the replacement of workers by robots, which will lead to higher unemployment and cause internal problems. Friedman mentions several reasons, such as the production of oil and possible changes in the industry that will enable Mexico to increase its GDP. As will increase the power of Mexico to grow and the tension between the U.S. and its southern neighbor. As a result, in the south-western United States will develop a conflict which, however, will be quite modest and will last until the end of the century.
Well, obviously, that is the future raises many questions, as you would expect from any attempt to look into the future. At the time, as Friedman notes that the projections should be used more wide VZG Ladi future that shows the pictures of disparate from what we see in the world today, some of his ideas seem completely unrealistic, especially in the details. In addition, he seems to have neglected the current war between the U.S. and the jihadists, which, for sure, will last much longer — problems in the Middle East can not be solved for a long time, and neither side is prepared to give up or change in order to end the conflict.
Secondly, it appears that Friedman relies too much on the past in their predictions about the future. At a time when Europe is an excellent example of history repeating itself when it comes to war — German and Russian aggression, and so on — the rest of the world, in general, works differently. Despite its history of sea power, the British lost this status with the rise in United States, occurring in the two world wars, while the European powers did not show any real interest in restoring its influence in Africa, South America or Asia. Looking back to the past — is an unreliable method of predicting the future. Although there are some examples (some of which are fair to mention), Friedman not really use them.
The strength of this book is that it views the current situation in the world and makes predictions about how it will affect the situation in the next twenty years, and as the years may have an impact on the next decade. It is much easier to make confident predictions about the coming years, what about the next decade. Friedman offers some very good advice, drawing the big picture of the day — I myself studied at the University of the geology and history, and I can confirm that if you look at history through the decades, centuries, millennia and epochs, then look at world events will be very different from the which can be obtained by reading the newspaper or listening to the radio, which reports only on current events.
Future, represented by Friedman, it seems far-fetched, but, at the same time, and believable. Is Japan attacked the United States on Thanksgiving Day in 2050? Unlikely, but the important lesson is that the chain of events, creating a chain of geopolitical action will still happen, and will lead either to this result, or to any other brand. The future is sure to bring with it new conflicts, wars and problems — and with them, and large-scale changes in the way the world works.
In a sense, Friedman is the future, is very different from what it was drawn in the old science fiction predictions, and more akin to some of the newer ones. (Reminiscent of Charles Stross (Charles Stross) and Paolo Bachigalupi (Paolo Bacigalupi). However, one thing is for sure — what is happening today affects tomorrow's event. Meanwhile, it's time to get acquainted with some unlikely countries. I'm like, I read everything You can read about Croatia — it can be helpful in my own life. "
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