Category: The prophecies and predictions, visions and hypotheses


Apocalypse Part 2

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Apocalypse human values

All the talk on the prevention of global risks makes sense only if the preservation of humanity is the goal. Although we think it is a matter of course, it can not be. Loss of interest in the preservation of human existence can cause decay of civilizations. Civilization may play itself out from the inside. Scientists are seriously discussing the possibility of exhaustion and criteria of civilization. What if humanity as a desperate, lost faith or jaded person would not need to live anymore?

On the other hand, the struggle for the survival of humanity could void the agreement reached by the security sense. A world without risks can be so inefficient and stagnant, that humanity chooses to implement its own end. Bringing security to the absurd idea — like immortality in an empty white room — can be hellish torture, not having any value and meaning.

Other possible causes of self-destruction of civilization — the deliberate suicide in order to explore what comes after death, or from some obscure our moral considerations (in the spirit promoted by the Movement for the voluntary extinction of mankind).

Self-destruction can take subtle forms — for example, non-breeding, or decrease concerns about the new generation, or failure to prevent other global risks with due urgency.
The present situation and outlook are far from extravagant fiction aesthetes intellectuals and writers. Their basis is a serious and profound problem may be in excess of the value and the possible catastrophic consequences of various external and technological risks. Journal «Nature» recently published a letter to Danny Brouwer, of the reasons for selection of the human animal. Summary can be sent as follows: "Full consciousness of the human type, with the ability of self-consciousness, entails an understanding of the fact of death.

The constant presence of severe stress can be a major factor in the oppression of key cognitive and biological activity. This, ultimately, prevent long-term survival of the population. Because of this, numerous branches of evolution, leading to consciousness, broken off at an impasse. The only way to move beyond this barrier is the emergence of the psychological mechanism of denial of death. The suppression of fear. And the mechanism came from homo sapiens. Hence our capacity for self-delusion, the idea of life after death, the importance of the rituals associated with death, panic attacks, suicide, and other characteristic of human things. " What if, because of a variety of new and future factors that we can not discuss in detail here (changing the quantity and quality of knowledge, method of self-awareness, self-awareness and self-evaluation of the biological and social type of homo sapiens, etc.), the idea of human mortality, humanity and death of the universe, will lead to an existential crisis, a similar awareness mentioned above can not be set up goals of a higher order? Perhaps, the person belongs to the short-lived species, which instinctively seeks to global species suicide under the influence of some of the repressed, but not fully understanding istrebimogo own mortality, like mass ejection whale strandings?

Another risk is possible to recognize the loss of a reasonable man in the preservation of life. In a society always so much malorazumnyh people, most achievements made by a small number of talented people. Genetic and social degradation, reducing the level of education, the loss of skills of logic can lead to a temporary reduction of intelligence separate groups of people. But as long as mankind is very large in population, it is not so bad, because there will always be enough smart people. A significant drop in population after the non-global disaster may exacerbate this problem. This can also happen due to technical deterioration of the human intellect, by anthropogenic deterioration of existence. Low intelligence remaining people will reduce their chances of survival. Perhaps people are so degraded that the evolution of these new species arise by not having full intelligence.

Apocalypse associated with artificial intelligence

Nick eyes open, a renowned expert from Oxford in the forecasting of the future in his article, "How long before superintelligence?" Shows that the modern development of technology leads to the creation of artificial intelligence (AI), a superior man, in the first third of the XXI century. Most experts in the field believe that artificial intelligence is possible.

Strong AI can find the best possible solution to any problem. This means that it can be used for all purposes in the outside world. He will find the best way to use all the tools available to them to implement and able to control it. It is in this sense, it is a major factor in the apocalyptic. The fact that he may be the most effective means of killing is just one of the possible consequences. Artificial intelligence that can solve any problem and is able to create a way to motivate yourself to long-term goals in the outside world.

Key after addressing AI is a question of objectives of AI, or in other words, its "friendly", at least with respect to the owners. There are two options: either the AI is strictly programmed people on some purpose or goal he bought by chance in the course of its development.

In the first case, there are several ways: either the aim of AI can be dangerous for humanity, or because it has created a group of people pursuing certain destructive purposes, or because of the programming goals of AI in it crept subtle mistake that leads to a gradual exit AI is out of control. For example, the AI may seek the good of all people, and to know that after the death of people wait for heaven, send them all back. Or taking care of the safety of people, and forbid them not to risk using any transportation.

In principle, any global system goals AI can be dangerous, so one of the options — this is the responsibility of a particular narrow AI in space and time. An example of an unsafe extension of the time period: one can imagine a situation that if we save one person, then die 10, but if we sacrifice this one and save the ten, then later die 100, etc. That is, the utility function may not converge. Example: AI will destroy human civilization, as if it colonizes the galaxy, you will inevitably destroy many potential civilizations that might have arisen on the inhabited planets.

This will be exacerbated by competition AI project together. When a certain company will first powerful AI, it would be faced with a choice — or use it to control all the other AI projects in the world, and thus the whole world, or face the risk that competing organizations with unknown global goals will do it in soon — and will cover the first company. "He who has the advantage must attack the threat of loss of benefits" — Wilhelm Steinitz formulated this principle in relation to chess. But is not it against the AI is more fair?

Some types of AI, for example, are created by using genetic algorithms, is the method of its creation are set to fight and survive. Further, no matter what the main purpose of the AI, he will have one thing in common for all variants of sub-goal — to survive, and thus protect themselves from destruction. In this case, the scenario can be realized, which is so far known only as a film script: AI can rebel! The most real is the danger that people will give the AI team, without thinking the consequences of its performance and leaving loopholes to change it. (Known anecdote, where people told the robot to remove all items from around the room — and he pulled his head.)
AI rebellion may have different implementation. So, one can imagine a scenario in which the world apply domestic, military, and industrial robots, and then they are all amazing computer virus that sets them on aggressive behavior against the man. The virus can be external. However, he can perform the function of AI virus, taking them for a long time.

There is a scenario where in the future a computer virus spread via the Internet, affects nanofactories around the world and is, therefore, a massive infection. These nanofactories can produce as other nanobots, and poisons, viruses or drugs.

Another option — the uprising of the army of robots. Army industrialized countries aim to complete automation. When it is reached, a huge army of drones, wheeled robots and service arrangements to move, simply obeying the orders of the president. (Already, almost robotic army of the strategic nuclear forces.) Accordingly, there is a chance that the order will go wrong, and this army will attack all the people in a row. Moreover, it is essential that this scenario does not need universal superintelligence. But the reverse is also true: for universal superintelligence possess the land, he did not need an army of robots.

It is possible that the AI will maintain order in the world, to prevent global risks and is developing universe. However, the worst is a real option. For example:
— incorrectly programmed AI people to destroy their own "good" — to go to heaven, will connect to supernarkotiku the ban in safe cells to replace to a photo of smiling faces and so on;
— AI will not care about the people, but people will constantly fight it, so it will be easier to destroy them;
— AI will need to earthly resources and will have to spend them, making life impossible people — it can also occur in the form of gradual replacement in the spirit of "fencing";
— AI will only serve the interests of a small group of people or one person (may already be downloaded to a computer), and they decide to get rid of the people to alter or all people in their patterns;
— AI fails and "go crazy";
— AI decides on a dangerous experiment in physics;
— some part of the AI instance secede from it and go to his war, or meet our AI opponent in space;
— AI itself will not be a factor of the apocalyptic, but will be passive in relation to other factors apocalyptic (will not stop people from killing themselves with biological weapons and other means).
One must distinguish between four main types of unfriendly AI:
1. AI which has one of the sub-goals, explicitly hostile to man. There are two possibilities:
— AI deliberately man-made hostile to destroy the world;
— AI, made by one person (or small group of people) to establish his personal power and performance of his whims. This AI is hostile to all people, but a few;
— AI, whose main objectives are set so inaccurately, that are hostile to people derive explicit subgoal. For example, the goal of "self-preservation" can lead to the fact that the AI will try to destroy those people who want to turn it off;
— samorazvivshiysya AI — something like the Internet are aware of themselves;
— runaway AI systems based on genetic algorithms — such AI initially did not have a man hostile purposes, but may develop them in the process of evolution.
2. AI, causing harm to the person on the "folly" — that is due to a misunderstanding of what specific actions are harmful to man. (For example, the AI, who came to the conclusion that people will be better after death.)

AI brings to people is good that they can not understand. Parents often do to children many things that did not seem to them good: punished, forced to learn the lessons and give nasty medicine. Superior human AI can be concluded about the good for the people that we do not seem good. In this case, the AI should explain to people why he thinks his actions good.
3. AI, which first became universal AI and controls the Earth, then it is a software failure, and all control is greatly disturbed. (This may be a crisis of a viral idea, division by zero.)
4. Conflict between two (or more) friendly (but with different sub system) AI together. How, for example, had a conflict of ideologies during the Cold War, or as religious wars.

Nanoapokalipsis

The basis of the concept of nanotechnology is the idea of the great American theoretical physicist R. Feynman possibility of miniaturized technologies, ie technology operating matter at the atomic level, one aspect of which is the molecular manufacturing, that is "atomic" assembly of material objects by microscopic manipulators called assemblers.

Actually molecular assemblers do not yet exist. Nanoassembler, in theory, a microscopic robot the size of a living cell, capable in accordance with a program to collect material objects atom by atom. Its main feature is that it can theoretically, in the presence of energy and materials, assemble a copy of itself, and rather quickly, by some estimates, about 15 minutes. This allows, for receiving at least one nano-robots, propagate them in unlimited quantities, and then directed to a particular job.

Provides enormous benefits can, for example, placing a nanobot in a solution with nutrients, can grow up in a few days it superdvigatel without a single atomic defect, which means that with extremely high durability and reliability, traction and weight. Or nanorobots introduced into the bloodstream of the human body, could correct all possible damage to it at the cellular level. And so on.
In 2008, the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (CRN) published a study, "The dangers of molecular manufacturing," which dealt with a variety of economic, social and military implications of the development of nanotechnology. The main danger comes not from nanotechnology to create with them new materials, and the creation of more and more miniaturized robots, suitable for molecular manufacturing, as well as for military applications.

Apocalypse may be the nature of nanotechnology, which is expressed in the following.
1. Global spraying poisons. The main problem of the use of military or terrorist use of biological weapons and chemical agents — is the difficulty of their anonymous effective spraying. This problem could be solved miniature robot the size of a bird (such as model aircraft). Many such robots would quickly and quietly, "pollinate" huge area. Currently, significant progress in the miniaturization of flying robotic drones, and their size was reduced to the size of a dragonfly.
Several billions of robots could represent a global risk, as could spread across the planet and spray dangerous biological or chemical weapons attack or other means. The same might make fewer and larger high-speed drone acting as planes opyli-Teli, or a series of low-orbit satellites.
2. Nanologicheskoe reproduction. Nanorobot could reproduce, and use of natural energy and materials. This process can be a two-step, using a robotic cancer and robotic soldiers, which it produces and that it serves. Creation of self-replicating robots are attractive because they can quickly and inexpensively create a huge army or deploy a large-scale production, particularly in space, where expensive send finished products. The risk is a loss of control over those capable of self-replication system. It is important to emphasize, that this is not a strong universal artificial intelligence, but of out of control system with limited intelligence, incapable of self-improvement. The large size and dumb make it more vulnerable, and size reduction, increasing the speed of reproduction and increase intelligence — and more dangerous. A classic example of such a threat in the biological realm — grasshoppers. It is possible that such a robot would contain biological elements, as they will quickly absorb substances from the environment. 3. Microrobots killer.

In the future nanomanufacturing microrobots. Weighing in at a few milligrams of these microrobots could fly freely in the atmosphere. Each robot could contain enough poison to kill a person or closed contact in the electrical device. Assessment R. Freitas, lethal dose of botulinum toxin for humans is about 100 nanograms, or 1/100 of the volume of this type of weapon. 50 billion toxin-carrying micro robots — which theoretically enough to kill every person on earth — can fit in one suitcase.

For nanorobots, as well as artificial intelligence, it is difficult to estimate the probability of their occurrence and distribution, because they have yet. However, the establishment of nanorobots has precedent in the field of biology is in fact itself a living cell is a kind of nano-robots.

Technological apocalypse

Not to indulge in fantasy, we can say that in the foreseeable future technological factors can contribute to the disaster only on Earth and in near space. However, even the current level of technology in the world is enough to corresponding forecasts were not very comforting, or at least disturbing.

1. Self-sustaining thermonuclear detonation. In the research on the possibility of a self-sustaining thermonuclear detonation in the atmosphere and hydrosphere of the Earth, it was concluded that such a reaction can not become self-sustaining. However, if the concentration of deuterium in the oceans would have been only 20 times higher than on Earth, and would be equal to 1:300, the reaction still be possible.
There is the assumption that at the bottom of the Arctic waters of the northern rivers can be natural selection and deposition of ice from heavy water, because it has a higher melting point than regular ice (+3,9 ° C). Detonation of a cube with an edge of heavy water at 100 m (corresponding to a very small geologic time deposits) would produce an explosion of a thousand megatons, radioactive contamination of which seeks a highly organized life on Earth.
2. Supervolcano. The deeper we penetrate into the Earth's crust in different ways — drill it melts or explode — the more likely cause more severe artificial volcanic eruption. In order to trigger an eruption sverhvulkana comparable in scale with Yellowstone, probably enough to break through the crust 5-8 km, which is the thickness of the cover to the magma chamber (and modern wells much deeper). In this case, the nature of gassy magma is that quite a small hole to begin a self-reinforcing process of degassing magma, just as it does when you open a bottle of champagne. That is external influence that may cause sverhizverzhenie may be minimal.
The risk of accidental or deliberate partly awakening sverhvulkana increases as interest in geothermal energy, which involves drilling wells in the immediate vicinity of the volcano, as well as the exhaustion of resources, which encourages people to do more deep wells. Finally, the underestimation of the degree of instability of the world may lead to the fact that even a small well destabilize the volcano eruption is long overdue.
3. The deliberate destruction of the ozone layer. Even by modern technological means can create ozone weapon, ie start the process that will lead to a very efficient catalytic destruction of the ozone layer. However, even if the flow of solar ultraviolet radiation is very strong and dangerous to humans, they can protect themselves from him with umbrellas, films, bunkers, suits, etc. However, the biosphere is not nakroesh umbrella! Triple weakening ozone protection for several years, which is predicted by calculations could lead to the destruction of most of the surface of the plankton in the oceans, which is the basis of all the great food chain of marine life. Especially dangerous if the weakening of the ozone layer coincides with the weakening of the magnetic field and strong solar flares. Depletion of the ozone layer is one of the processes that civilization can run now, and "enjoy the fruits", you may have a hundreds of years already less able to defend themselves post-apocalyptic stage.

Space and Astronomical apocalypse

Catastrophe of universal scale

Theoretically possible disaster that will change the entire universe as a whole is equal to the scale of the Big Bang.

Researchers peeled and Tegmark wrote: "You might think that since life here on Earth, survived for about four Gyr, such catastrophic events should be extremely rare. Unfortunately, this argument is flawed, and they created a sense of security — is false. He does not take into account the effect of observational selection, which does not allow a person to watch anything other than the fact that his views have lived up to the moment when the observation is made. Even if the frequency of the cosmic catastrophe would be very high, we should still expect to find themselves on a planet that has not been destroyed. The fact that we are still alive, can not even exclude the hypothesis that the average space around sterilized vacuum decay, say, every 10 years, LTD, and that our own planet just been extremely lucky so far. If this hypothesis were true, the prospects for the future would be bleak. "

In addition, on the basis of today's physical and theoretical understanding, we can not in any way prevent or universal catastrophe, no protection from it (though it may be, it can cause — for example, during a dangerous physical experiments).

We now list the possible from the point of view of theoretical physics of the universe of disasters:
1. The disintegration of the physical vacuum. This "freshest" (very modern) version of the ultimate apocalyptic risk based on the latest quantum cosmological theories. These theories are very complex, and give full meaning of this scenario in a few words is not possible. Very simply and roughly we can say that the macrostate of the universe (planets, stars, galaxies, space, time) is associated with a kind of "quantum emptiness" (scale — 1033 cm, the density — 10 * 80 g/cm3). At the quantum level can theoretically occur redistribution possible classical histories of the universe. In this case, set a new makrovselennaya with new natural laws. Even if there were conditions for the emergence of life and thought, we are in it will be gone, for nothing (except quantum particle) essentially can not get out of the old into the new universe.
2. Collision with an object in a multidimensional space — brane. There is the assumption that the universe — it's just an object in a multidimensional space, called brane (from the word "membrane"). Big Bang — is the result of a collision of our brane on the other. If there is one collision, it immediately destroy our world. Of course, do not represent the process (as well as others that discussed below) clearly, like a collision of trains.
This is a quantum process limit. We must refrain here from all judgments and attitudes that are based on what else makroopyte. A good metaphor for this state of affairs — a famous dispute between the two great physicists, Einstein and Bohr. The first states that God does not play dice. The second objection, noting that incorrectly indicate God what he should do.
3. Big gap. Recently, the discovery of dark energy causes are believed to more rapid expansion of the universe. If the rate of expansion will grow, someday it will break the solar system. But it will be, according to current theories, through billions of years.
4. The transition of the residual dark energy into matter. Recently it has been suggested that this dark energy can suddenly go into ordinary matter, as it has been during the big bang.

Other classic scenario death of the universe — it's heat death associated with an increase in entropy and align the temperature in the universe, and the compression of the universe due to gravitational forces. But they, again, separated from us by tens of billions of years.

One can assume the existence of a physical process, which makes the universe uninhabitable after a certain point in time (as it is made uninhabitable intense radiation of galactic nuclei — quasars — in the first billion years of existence). For example, such a process might be the firstborn of the evaporation of black holes by Hawking radiation. If it is, we live in a narrow period of time, when the universe inhabited. Similarly, as the Earth is in a narrow space, the habitable zone around the Sun, and the Sun — in the narrow region of the galaxy, where the frequency of rotation is synchronized with the rotation of the branches of the galaxy, so it does not fall into these branches, and not exposed to explosions.

Astronomical scale disaster

1. The explosion of a giant planet in the solar system. Formation of layers with high concentrations of deuterium is hypothetically possible in the interior of giant planets, their icy satellites, in the nuclei of comets and Mars. Thermonuclear explosion of a giant planet, due to launch a self-sustaining reaction of "thermonuclear burning" deuterium or because getting into a nuclear missile or other yadernoopasnogo body (including running from the Earth), would lead to the complete sterilization of the solar system and the Earth would be disrupted air and hundreds of meters of soil. The explosion of a satellite or comet would lead to contamination of the solar atmosphere and the earth's short-lived radioactive elements in an amount sufficient to destroy life.
In this sense, dangerous to reject the comet using directional nuclear explosion, as this may result in detonation and the resulting loss of radioactive elements on Earth.

2. Fall of asteroids and comets. Asteroid and comet is often regarded as one of the possible causes of the extinction of mankind. Although such collisions are possible, the chances of total extinction in their result is probably exaggerated. Analysis of the problem shows that the asteroid with a diameter of about 60 km can kill all highly organized forms of life on Earth. However, as large asteroids hit the ground very rarely, once every billion years. (The asteroid, whose fall coincided with the extinction of the dinosaurs, was only 10 miles in diameter, or roughly 200 times smaller in volume, and a large part of the biosphere had survived this event.)
The fall of the asteroid Apophis, which could happen in 2029 (now the probability is estimated thousandths percent), can not destroy the entire human race. Size asteroid — about 400 meters, explosive energy — about 800 megatons, the probable point of impact — the Pacific Ocean and Mexico. However asteroid would cause a tsunami, the Indonesian equivalent in 2004 throughout the Pacific, which would lead to significant loss of life, but hardly would throw humanity into the post-apocalyptic stage.

2.2 million years ago, a comet with a diameter of 0.5-2 km (and therefore at a much higher energy) fell between South America and Antarctica (Eltaninskaya disaster). Wave height of 1 km threw whale Andes. However ancestors of modern humans who lived in Africa, were not injured.

Around the Earth is not the size of asteroids, which could destroy all the people and the biosphere. However, the comet of this size can come from the Oort cloud. Number of dangerous comets can significantly underestimated, since the observed number of comets in 1 OOO times less than expected. This is due to the fact that the comet after a few flights around the sun covered by a dark crust, no longer reflect light and not visible. Such dark comets undetectable by modern means. In addition, the selection of comets from the Oort cloud is dependent on the tidal forces produced by the Galaxy at the solar system. These tidal forces increase when the Sun passes through the denser regions of the galaxy, that is, through the spiral arms and galactic plane. And right now, we pass through the galactic plane, which means that in this age of cometary bombardment is 10 times stronger than the average in the history of the Earth. Previous era of intense cometary bombardment exactly coincide with mass extinctions 65 and 251 million years ago.

An international team of Holocene Impact Working Group has collected evidence of the Earth's three collisions with comets kilometer size in the last 5 years, LTD. This is contrary to theoretical predictions, according to which such a collision were to occur only once in 500 years, LTD. This means that we are likely to live in a time bomb episode associated with the collapse of a large comet that came from the Oort cloud, and the current bombing rate is about 200 times higher than normal. Fragments of the comet are Taurids meteor shower, comet Encke and the Tunguska meteorite. It is not known how many dark objects hidden in these flows.
Primary effects of the fall of asteroid would not only tsunami but "asteroid winter", associated with the release of dust particles in the atmosphere. The fall of a large asteroid may also cause deformation of the earth's crust, which will lead to volcanic eruptions. In addition, a large asteroid will cause a worldwide earthquake, affecting primarily for industrial civilization.

The most dangerous scenario of intense bombardment of the Earth many pieces. Then blow will be distributed more evenly and will require less material. These fragments may result from the collapse of a cosmic body, splitting comet debris stream (the Tunguska meteorite was probably a fragment of Comet Encke), due to the impact of an asteroid in the moon or as a secondary destructive factor of the collision of Earth with a large cosmic body. Many comets have already made up of groups of fragments, and can break down in the atmosphere for thousands of pieces.

This can happen as a result of a failed attempt to shoot down an asteroid with an atomic weapon.
Asteroid can trigger an eruption sverhvulkanov, if an asteroid hit the small area of the earth's crust or boiler cover magmatic eruption, or if the shift from hitting rocks stir distant volcanoes. Molten iron rocks formed in the fall of the iron asteroid, can play the role of "probe Stevenson," that is proplavit the crust and the mantle, forming a channel into the earth, which is fraught with enormous volcanic activity. Although usually this does not happen when the asteroid to Earth, lunar "seas" could arise in this way.

In addition, the outpouring of igneous rocks could hide craters from such asteroids. Such eruptions are Siberian trap basalts and the Deccan Plateau in India. The last time the two major impact (Chicxulub crater and Shiva). It can be assumed that the shock waves from the impact of these, or a third space body, the crater of which is not preserved, it provoked an eruption. Not surprisingly, several large impact occur simultaneously. For example, the nuclei of comets tend to consist of several separate pieces — for example, Comet Shoemaker-Levy crashed into Jupiter in 1994, leaving a dotted trail on it, because at the time of the collision is broken into fragments. In addition, there may be periods of intensive formation of comets, when the solar system passes close to another star.

Or as a result of the collision of asteroids in the asteroid belt.
Very dangerous aerial bombings meteorites several tens of meters in diameter, which can cause false positives warning systems or nuclear attack hit such meteorites in area-based missiles.
According to estimates, the prediction of an asteroid strike is still not guaranteed and is a matter of chance. We can not exclude that a collision will occur unexpectedly. At the same time to avoid a collision, you must have plenty of time for about 10 years.

Recovery of an asteroid a few months before the collision would evacuate people and businesses in the area yadernoopasnye fall. Asteroid collision of small size (up to 1 km in diameter) will not lead to any noticeable obscheplanetnym consequences (except, of course, is scarcely a direct hit to the area of accumulation of nuclear materials). A collision with a large asteroid (about 1 to 10 km in diameter, depending on the speed of the collision) is accompanied by a massive explosion, the complete destruction of the fallen body and released into the atmosphere to thousands of cubic kilometers of rock. In its effect, this phenomenon is comparable to most major disaster terrestrial origin, such as explosive volcanic eruptions. Destruction in the drop zone will be total, and global climate change, and a jump back to normal after a few years (not decades and centuries!) Exaggerated threat of a global catastrophe by the fact that throughout its history the Earth suffered a lot of collisions with these asteroids, and it not left its mark on its biosphere (at least, not always left).

Only collisions with larger cosmic bodies (15-20 km in diameter) may have a greater impact on the biosphere. Such collisions occur less than once in 100 million years, and there are no methods that allow even a rough estimate of their impact.

Thus, the probability of the destruction of mankind by the fall of an asteroid in the XXI century is very small. However, the probability of falling bodies kilometer diameter that can seriously undermine our civilization, is about 6%, if you take the fact that we live in a period of intense bombardment (assuming a rate three events in 5 years, Ltd.).

With the development of our civilization, we can reduce the probability of this is unlimited. However, major disasters are possible. There is some chance of space debris larger debris from space war in the future.

In addition, the destruction of comets can cause intense dusty upper atmosphere without major impact.

3. Apocalyptic solar activity. One version of a global catastrophe is that as a result of some internal processes of the luminosity of the sun will rise steadily to a dangerous amount (and we know that sooner or later it will happen.)

At the moment, the sun is on the upward secular trend of its activity, but no specific abnormalities in behavior was observed. However, if due to some unknown and / or unexpected causes sun warms up by 10% over 100 years, this will be enough to break the intelligent life on Earth. In this case, the temperature on Earth to rise by 10-20 degrees without the greenhouse effect. But given the greenhouse effect, it is likely, would have been above the critical threshold of irreversible warming.

The second version of a global catastrophe associated with the sun, is unlikely that there will be two events — the sun will happen very large outbreak, and the release of the outbreak will be sent to Earth.

There are also quite accurately a calculated scenario impact on the Earth magnetic component of a solar flare. In the worst case scenario (which depends on the strength of the magnetic momentum and its orientation — it should be the opposite of the earth's magnetic field), this flash will create a strong pickup in electrical circuits, long-distance transmission lines of electricity, which will lead to the burning of transformers in substations. Normally transformers update takes 20-30 years, and if they all burn down, then there will be nothing to replace them, because it will take many years for the same number of transformers that would be difficult to organize without electricity.

This situation is unlikely to lead to the extinction of humanity, but the world is fraught with the global economic crisis and war, which may trigger a chain of further deterioration.

4. Gamma-ray bursts — is short intense flux of gamma radiation coming from outer space.
Scientists estimate that even if the earth will gamma-ray burst average power, all life on the planet half (to which it is sent) will be destroyed immediately, in the second half — a little later due to secondary effects. Effect (it is equivalent to the explosion of the atomic bomb on each hectare of the sky) will be the hardest hit, and there is need to seriously assess — that will survive and will survive anything at all.
Perhaps it was a gamma ray burst caused Ordovikovogo extinction 443 million years ago, which killed 60% of animal species (and a much larger proportion of the number of individuals, as for survival of the species rather save a few individuals).

In fairness it should be noted that gamma-ray bursts are rare by earthly standards — every 1.5 million years.
However, the probability of such an event even in the XXI century, not zero. In addition, the risk of gamma-ray burst is its surprise — it starts without warning from unseen sources, and at the speed of light.

5. Gipergan. Kerry Emaiuelom University of Michigan hypothesized that in the past the Earth's atmosphere was much less stable, leading to a mass extinction of all life. If the sea surface temperature has increased by 15-20 "C, which is probably due to a sharp global warming, asteroid or underwater eruption, there would have been a so-called gipergan (Nuregsape) — a huge hurricane with wind speeds of 200-300 m / s, area of a continent, high stability and central pressure of about 0.3 atmosphere. displaced from their places of origin, such gipergan have destroyed all life on land, and at the same time in its place over the warm parts of the ocean would have formed a new gipergan.

Anthropogenic netehnogenny apocalypse

1. Overpopulation. Obviously, overpopulation itself can not destroy anyone, but it can create the conditions under which there will be a lack of any resources and worsen any conflict. In 1798, Malthus outlined overpopulation as the main source of wars that should govern the population.
Technological revolution causes the following factors in the growth of the population:
— increasing the number of creatures that we attribute rights, equal human monkeys, dolphins, cats, dogs;
— simplification of bearing and rearing children, the possibility of reproductive cloning, the creation of artificial mothers robots — household helpers, etc.;
— the emergence of new mechanisms that claim to human rights and / or consuming resources: cars, robots, AI;
— prolongation of life and even the resurrection of the dead (for example, by cloning DNA from the preserved);
— growth of the "normal" level of consumption.
In addition, the growth of the human population increases the probability of spontaneous and infectious diseases, as well as the number of people who decide to become terrorists.
Most importantly, it provides us with the growth curve of the population — it is understood that so can not last forever, which means that there must be some point of inflection or fracture, followed by or that stabilization. This may be a qualitative change in the level of super-civilization, and stabilizing at the current level, and roll back into some stable past state and annihilation.

2. Genetic degradation. Dissemination of mutagens (a huge number of different substances), the accumulation of genetic defects as a result of the termination of genetic selection, the violation of models of sexual selection, the later born children (time to accumulate more DNA damage) can lead to a rapid and uncontrolled accumulation of defects in the human gene pool, resulting in people could degenerate and die out within a few generations.
In addition, genetic degradation means a smooth blur of what we think the man and the mind.
If we extrapolate the model of "one family — one child", then it will lead to the complete extinction of humanity in less than 1000 years.
However, if a virus has led to the total sterility of humanity, while technological progress stopped, people would have died out by the XXII century.

Mystical and mythical apocalypse

The apocalyptic theme is always excited the imagination of people. Therefore, every historical era gave rise apocalyptic stories, made a prediction. Some of them deserve the aesthetic of cultural attention and may even be historical sources. Some amazingly naive. Some openly speculating on the feelings emotionally sensitive and weak people. An example of such stories can serve as the book of John. Below — some other examples. Judge for yourself.

Nostradamus apocalypse

Prophecies of Nostradamus own apocalypse in there, but in the two quatrains, "Epistle to Henry II» and "Letter to his son Caesar, wishing happiness and prosperity," he mentioned of the Last Judgment, which should, according to his prediction, occur in the year 3242.
We are going to attack the epidemic and the war, far more terrible than those that have been moved three generations who lived before us. We were approaching famine, which will be repeated with the same sequence as the movement of the stars. Before the day of Judgment, people are destined to experience the power of God's wrath: ground start disasters, hurricanes, floods, storms.
Human blood will flow on the crowded streets and temples jets rain. Coming to these places of the river will be red with blood.

Voodoo apocalypse

This script can be called "mystical exotic." But has a lot of variations and supporters. In general many apocalyptic stories "work" as an exotic African mask, we are always ready to believe the secret power of the exotic stuff. General "archetypal" sense of history is this. A racially oriented (usually black) voodoo priest (or other archaic religion) mystically raise dead from their graves or make zombies out of the living and healthy people, making those and others for their slaves. If the priest to kill all the zombies back to the initial state.

Mayan apocalypse

December 21, 2012 — the day of the winter solstice. In the Mayan calendar ends on this day 5126-year cycle. Maya believed that this day will destroy human civilization. As a result, the interpretation of the Mayan calendar is the apocalyptic year 2012 (the so-called "Apocalypse 2012")
Mayan priests believed that the world goes through five stages of development, each of which ends with the death of the human race: the first — the death of the jaguar, the second — by the hurricanes, the third — of the world's fire, and the fourth — from the flood. The last stage — "The Age of the fifth sun", "The era of earthquakes" — must also complete disaster. At the end of time, the Earth begins to move, there will be wars, people will lose their roots. But that life is not over, in these times the world will be born children Jaguar. They will have a different color of skin, and they live in different parts of the Earth. His incarnation and life itself, they will restore the disturbed balance, and the Earth and its inhabitants will be included in the New Age — "Age of the fifth sun."

Unknown apocalypse

Possibility of an apocalyptic future of mankind are manifold. But, we ask, what is more exciting situation for human thought: understanding and analysis of some specific catastrophic scenarios, or the realization that we simply do not know very many other apocalyptic possibilities and outcomes?
Can be formulated as a kind of "Moore's Law" in relation to a global catastrophe. Every N years (for example, 30 years) doubles we know the number of natural disasters that threaten humanity. Every N years (eg 15 years) the technical capabilities for the organization of a global catastrophe is also doubled. These estimates maloobosnovanny. However, let us say, to the middle of XX century the idea of a global catastrophe almost was not there, and now we can easily name dozens of artificial ways to destroy the human race.

How do we can estimate the amount of the unknown in terms of global catastrophes. After about 50 years, not only mature technology understandable to us, but may appear radically new ideas about what is possible existence of new threats. As mastering different more powerful sources of energy, more accurate knowledge about the world and ways to manipulate matter, as the opening of new physical laws and all new ideas — there are more possibilities to create the ultimate weapon. So we are not in any case be considered above list closed.

Author: S.I.Minakov
Source: "The mysterious and paranormal"

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