It is not so long ago Russian journalist had a conversation with a high-ranking bureaucrat close to the family of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. He said, in fact follow. Syria living facilities pay for the Russian guns. Role in oil and gas production promises huge profits. If Our homeland will leave this country then it will take place immediately the other, because Syria is the last ally of Russia in the Arab world. In his view, Russia in the final period pushed around from where they can. In Libya, everything happens on the Iraq scheme: Russian oil experts at unlikely to return to Tripoli. Immediately after the resignation of Gaddafi will change experts at the company "Shell". And the government will implement a new purchase and the United States. And similar may happen in Syria. "You damn, so many years have told us that you are our friends … But when we become sausage, silent, as partisans" — said the bureaucrat.
Outbreak of war and civilian protests in the Arab world has become a surprise not only for Washington, and for Moscow. Our homeland waits and no risk to indicate their point of view. And yet the loss of money Russian Federation during the riots in the Middle East can not be estimated one billion dollars a dozen. Let's try to find the main downsides to the Russian Federation, which pose inside the revolution in the Arab world.
First negative — oil.
In February of this year, "Gazprom" has received the third part in the development of oil fields, "Elephant", which is located in 800 km from the capital Tripoli. Now NATO planes bombard Libyans, Russian experts at evacuated, and the big question is whether they will come back. For example, "LUKOIL" only 6 years after the beginning of the South American invasion returned to Iraq. How much the company has lost money for years of inactivity? First, this year Russian company "Petros" has been invited to drill wells in Yemen, but is shooting in the streets, hundreds of people die — to extract oil and gas in these criteria is problematic. Perhaps, only Algeria is not being driven by our oil, and in this country unrest began.
Second negative — gun.
In 2009, the Libyan ruler Colonel Gaddafi has concluded a contract with Russia for the supply of T-90 tanks, air defense systems "Armour C-1" and helicopters "Alligator" for a total of 4 billion dollars is clear that these funds now Our homeland will never see .
Shrouded demonstrations Syria wanted to purchase from the Russian Federation air defense system S-300 cruise missile "Yakhont" and MiG-31 by about 10 billion dollars, but how to trade power in Damascus, and these arrangements can also completely put a cross. You ask why? Iraq in 20 years took Russian cannon, but after the deposition of Saddam Hussein, there is now running the show South American M-16 and Romanian "Kalashnikovs". In addition, in Tartus (Syria) is placed Russian naval base and Russia pays a nominal sum for her rent. What will happen to our base in unfavorable course of events? Right. And that's not all. In 2010, President Saleh of Yemen signed an agreement with Russia on the one billion dollars for the obtaining of the Mi-17 and multiple rocket launchers "Smerch". At the current time Saleh besieged rioting in the capital, and the Russian Federation continues to think over the question how to get back their money?
3rd minus — the evacuation.
I had to charter a ferry to Montenegro and guide the aircraft to a thousand Russian people take out of Libya. In addition, in January, our 250 tourists evacuated by air from rebellious Tunisia. In the case of Syria, the situation is even more difficult. This country is home to about 30 million people of. This is the main lady, married to the Syrians, who studied in the Soviet Union, and their kids. The funds will be useful not one car, if all 30 thousand people suddenly need to be delivered to Moscow.
Not Our homeland is China?
Middle East still 25 years ago, was economically disadvantageous for the USSR. But at the present time the situation has changed. If our homeland with the Near East will take its place in an instant take other: the same China. Already at this time, Chinese engineers are building roads, dams, power stations in Sudan and Syria, there deliver their car, driving with all this with a fairly promising Russian market. But once in Iraq and Syria was the number one car "Volga" and now SUV 'Great Wall'.
What is still required from the Russian Federation? Send special forces to Syria or to send troops to Libya. No. You just need to make a decision. NATO has put on the Libyan rebels for purely economic reasons — the rebels are kept under control Libya's oil fields and are willing to give profitable conditions. Our homeland is not making any characters Gaddafi nor the rebels, because the fate of Russian oil contracts with Libya are dark corners. Support of Bashar al-Assad in Syria will strengthen the mutually beneficial relations, but in the white stone prefer to remain silent.
America for many years to stuff means of Saleh's regime in Yemen and Mubarak in Egypt, not having to worry about such trifles as democracy. At the current time the U.S. is busy with one question: try to keep the impact of the Arab world, markets and implements the position of its own gas and oil companies.
Gun … agreements with Yemen, Syria, and Libya — fifteen billion dollars, and 10 — the likely revenues from Russian oil and gas production in the Arab States. The naval base and tuition in Russia local professionals. Does not really spent a lot of money to do so just lose them? The conclusion is that Russia should not disturb the style of government in one way or another Arab country, and the political and financial advantage of.