Category: The prophecies and predictions, visions and hypotheses

Predictions Ray Kurzweil

This man is compared with Thomas Edison on the number of inventions, it awarded epithets "thinking machine", "gushing genius", he received 19 honorary titles doktora.No more likely he is famous for its numerous predictions that always sbyvayutsya.Vot several acclaimed (and come true! ) predictions of Ray Kurzweil. In 1980 he predicted the emergence of a worldwide network WWW, linking together the 100 million computers. He predicted the fall of the Soviet Union in the late 80's. He predicted that the computer will win the World Chess Champion in 1996.

He foresaw the decoding DNA project "Gene" in the 2000s. In addition to these, to his credit are literally hundreds of other predictions come true and as many more that are about osuschestvyatsya.On says that in the coming years there will be a global social cataclysm, and the "quiet" revolution that will change our understanding of mire.Kak he can do These predictions Can not be a science fiction writer and scholar, to-ing took only one formula to-heaven told him vse.Eto known to many law, to-ing is called "exponential growth of information technology", ie all technologies related to the storage, processing, reading and sending informatsii.Zdes important word "exponential". We, the people, are accustomed to a linear development because evolution has programmed our brains.

This helped us to survive in the jungles and plains, but now we have to change our thinking if we are to keep pace with changes in mire.Vot primer.Skazhem we see coming cheloveka.My can say that after 30 steps, he held 20 meters or about togo.Esli also make these 30 steps, but exponentially, then come to milliardu.U have no experiences with exponential processes in nature, unless you are a microbiologist and watch the growth of bacteria.

But in all that is related to the information, all the moves eksponente.Razvitie computers famous Moore's Law, doubling capacity at reduced processor for goda.Po grow exponentially: the volume of the Internet, the volume of electronically transmitted data, the volume and cost of storing data read DNA, resolution, and speed of brain scanners. Apart from the fact that the power of computers increases, they also desheveyut.Takim way, there is a double eksponenta.Cherez 25 computers, improving, again exponentially, will be billions of times faster, a million times smaller and thus much cheaper than segodnyashnie.Vot his predictions for the next few years.

-Personal medicine and pharmaceuticals, due to the complete scanning the patient's DNA. -Artificial computer intelligence is indistinguishable from the human. Prolongation of life-in times. Computer, the size of a cell. -Unlimited physical capabilities through bioengineering. But the most fantastic, his prediction has led to the fact that someone called him a prophet of a new religion, while others openly about his book as blasphemous doktrine.Hotya Ray just again applied his famous law of the exponential development of technology has now made forecast for 2050 god.Rech is about a book called "Singularity or the era of spiritual machines." Some of the origin termina.Singulyarnostyu theoretical physicists call a point in the center of the "black hole", a place where gravity is increased to beskonechnosti.Granitsu areas in the center of Roy is a singularity, called the horizon sobytiy.Na that border the known laws of physics cease to work, lose their ability to prediction.

But what is the singularity is talking about Ray? Here are excerpts from his interview: "The Singularity is not just the appearance of thinking machines in the 20's ztogo veka.Eto be only the beginning of the revolution, when the power of these machines will continue to grow exponentially and they will reprogram themselves to make another umnee.V 2045 machine intelligence will grow billions of times the combined intelligence of all people, this will be the event horizon, because our mind is not able to visualize the behavior of consciousness, to the so-Roe it prevyshaet.V any case, we will have to change to be a match for the machines, possibly by increasing their expense our own intelligence. "That's what she's like a singularity — the" pink "the future to-Roe drew us Ray.

Superhomosapiensy with exponentially increasing computer intelligence and physical возможностями.Сверхцивилизация, under any opredeleniem.I it in the near godu.Neudivitelno 2050 that Ray sold drugs longevity enjoyed the same success as his books. But is all rosy in reality? Did we achieve happiness through the development of hi-tech? I think that among the readers there skeptiki.Vy right, it's not that simple.

And the reason for this is another process that is kotoryyry exponentially and to-ing Ray does not take many great not measure bytes, dollarami.I nanometers and it is most relevant to us, Homo sapiens. But first, let's look at how technical and scientific progress is reflected in our zhizni.My are living longer, but not a disease-schastlivee.Depressiya number one in the developed world, soon it will become a global epidemic Number 1, eclipsing AIDS.

We have become more educated, and more amoralnymi.Odnoy of the most educated nations in the early twentieth century was Germaniya.Chto happened next, we znaem.My become more connected and socially inscribed, but have become less druzhit.Otchuzhdenie and suspicion reigns between the two countries, the streets multimillion cities, luxurious offices of banks and investment companies in the doorways of houses and even private kvartirah.My richer, but less confident in dne.Nashi children most wealthy and spoiled in history, but also the most unfortunate and sliced their roditeley.Spisok goes on. What is the cause of these heh bed7A reason is simple and hidden in our nature, the essence of who we are, our essence yavlyaemsya.I Ego.Ego is not familiar to us in the moral and ethical value.

Ego is a natural property of all matter, from the inanimate to the plant and the still zhivotnoy.Na level is the desire to maintain their formu.Na vegetable-growing and grab space for obitaniya.Na animal-reproduction and relationships "predator-prey", a hierarchical relationship in stae.Eto all, so to say, good, unspoiled Ego.I at these levels is not razvivaetsya.No ego ego in man is most developed, it is the ego and the public all the time rastet.S what speed? Perhaps the reader guessing, of course, on exponentially.

By the way, this formula can be found in the earliest written sources (in particular, in the text, to-ing is the basis of almost all ethical systems in the world, here is a quote: "… received 100, 200 people want, getting 200 people want 400, and on his deathbed he imee no more than half what he wants. "What is this, if not exhibitor What was the cause of the explosion ego in the twentieth century? change flow strike us information, first printed, then E, then the internet? Maybe all information technology development is a consequence of the ego? There is a lot of controversy around this, but it does not matter.

Important one, and Ray this is right that we need to change our ego or growing poglotit.Ved if not balance all the time growing up in our ego, we can easily imagine what could happen: the ego ceases to give traders an opportunity to share profits with anyone Anyway, the whole mechanism of loans, shares and international trade, based on the principle of "mine-mine," "yours, your" skollapsiruet.Ostanetsya principle of "my-my-my and yours." Result-collapse of the world will grow ekonomiki.Ego to such an extent that people will not tolerate beside him nikogo.Sledstvie_razval family.

Also, people will not accept any form of restriction of his ego, imposed by society, natural ramkami.Perestanut have children, because it limits the ego, will cease to participate at a minimum level in public zhizni.Dalee-degradation of society and, as a sad end-emergence Nazi regime in all countries , the world wars and the destruction of much of chelovechestva.A Now imagine that we will give into the hands of this growing ego, the great technical achievements of to-ryh says Rey.Rezultat just hard to predstavit.Poetomu we have to think about the decision as to curb out-of all boundaries Ego.Odnim of solutions could be to change the media.

We need to stop hastening and encourage ego SMI.Nam be using all existing media to oppose the greatness of the ego-return properties care about people, gift, do not require anything vzamen.Neobhodimo to make the value of unpaid contribution to society, the properties of the impact in the eyes of all in the world began as the person above Ego.A entirely dependent on public opinion, it will create a mechanism for internal compensation growing Ego.Nam should hurry, because even in formulas Ray, we've got quite a bit of time.

Gleb Zinoviev. "The Secret Doctrine". № 22.

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