March 30 Belarusian authorities received two bad news. The U.S. imposed sanctions against the Belarusian State Concern "Belorusneft" — for his activities in Iran. The same day, the international rating agency Moody's Investors Service lowered the credit rating of Belarus by one point. Whether these events are related? Is there a connection between U.S. sanctions and the economic, investment charm of Belarus in the world?
The first time the U.S. imposed economic sanctions in November 2007 against the two companies "Belneftekhim". In April 2008, the sanctions were extended to all the companies included in it. Over the next two years the trade turnover between Belarus and the United States decreased by four times. Was it the result of the fall of sanctions?
Expert on International Affairs Andrei Fedorov"I believe that if sanctions affected the turnover before indirectly. Fearing that the U.S. has not expanded the sanctions to other industries, I believe, Minsk tried to transfer their contracts with the United States to other places. In my view, the reduction in turnover was due above all that. "
As for the new sanctions, the representatives of "Belorusneft" has already indicated that they essentially hit the interests of the company. "The sanctions will affect financial services to these projects will be hampered the flow of funds. And when it comes to Venezuela, to a lesser extent, by Iran it will be for us significantly, "- said the deputy general director of" Belorusneft " Leonid Voytehin.
Andrei Fedorov notes that U.S. sanctions demonstrate to other countries, the U.S. attitude to the official Minsk:
"Of course, it is not conducive to good towards Belarus as a reliable partner. But it seems to me that the circumstances in the Belarusian economy in itself is so bad that it is the U.S. decision can not be too adversely affect them, it is mainly determined by the internal problems of the Belarusian economy. "
Whether linked formally different things such as the U.S. sanctions and the economic rating of Belarus, its attractiveness to investors? Associate Professor of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations Kirill Koktysh 'm sure there is a clear link here:
"Of course, it does. Moreover, we should not forget that in today's global structure of the U.S. economy — it is the main emission center, and the dollar — the currency that holds the worldwide financial system. So, of course, the U.S. sanctions and evaluation — is both assessment of the prospects of the Belarusian economy, assessment, which is not only a market player, but also a subject that defines the rules of the market. "
The Belarusian leadership following the deterioration of relations with the West in the late 90's headed for the search for new markets in the countries of the "Third World." Or give fruit this strategy?
Koktyish"It seems to me that this line is already fully developed. For example, in China This year, turned from an exporter to an importer due to problems with nutrition. China is increasingly turning into a colossus with feet of clay. Do not have lesser problems in Iran, Venesuela and other Belarusian allies.
So the American sanctions will be very painful. If by 2008, Minsk would not have noticed it, but now that half a billion — it is very hurt. So now that Minsk will reap the benefits of the policy, which was conducted last three months. "