The system has become unbalanced and unpredictable. Christina Rudnickaya, George Veremiychik of reversible and irreversible climate
According to scientists, global warming — an inevitable process. But in the last 20 years, it has accelerated — largely due to too vigorous activity Homo Sapiens, inhabiting the planet. The effect of human and other factors on the Earth's climate, and the fact that he expects the planet and, in particular, in the case of the Ukraine unwanted scenarios, the press center of "Observer" explained: Deputy Director of the Environmental Department of the Institute of Ecology and Energy Conservation George Veremiychik and Coordinator of Climate Change of the National Ecological Centre of Ukraine Kristina Rudnytska.
Raising the temperature of the Earth: the human is walking confidently to disaster
Christina Rudnickaya said that "natural greenhouse effect" of the planet is broken processes such as the burning of coal, oil and gas. In this case, the atmosphere gets carbon dioxide, methane and other greenhouse gases. As a result, the overall temperature of the planet increases. "Illness" of the Earth is shown through an abnormally low or abnormally high temperatures, floods, droughts, hurricanes, tornadoes, and other troubles.
"Climate — a statistical ensemble of the state of the atmosphere-land-ocean", considered the 30-year period — said George Verimiychik. According to experts, if you compare today's average temperature data 1961-1991 period, "their changes are minor." Climate change has always happened in the world — reminded the expert — but a half century ago, the dominant factor was natural. In recent decades, the greatest influence on the Earth's climate began to render human activity.
Christina Rudnickaya confirmed this fact figures in the last 100 years, global temperature has risen by about 0.8 degrees. Limit temperature rise beyond which irreversible effects begin at 2 degrees. "It is expected that by the end of this century, global temperature could rise by 3 degrees," — to "calm" the expert. Thus, humanity is steadily marching to disaster, — she added.
Ukraine faces floods, droughts, locusts, refugees and mild winters
It is logical to assume that the climate change global scale will be reflected in the territory of Ukraine. Despite the fact that our country has a very good geographic location, planetary cataclysms will not pass her by. Thus, according to Christine Rudnitsky, of natural disasters may become more and become more intense. "In western Ukraine, floods will be more frequent in the east and south may have problems with drinking water and drought."
Unusual weather can cause higher mortality, and poor harvests. "Driven by the instinct of self-preservation", in Ukraine by the heat will escape the people of Africa and Asia — the so-called climate migrants. In addition, atypical for our latitude insects (including vectors of malaria and other diseases) will feel in our territory more comfortable.
"In the last 20 years, Ukraine has changed over the circulation of air," — added counterpart George Verimiychik. According to him, "It used to be: over the Ukraine winter dominated Siberian anticyclone, the weather, which was in Moscow a few days later came to Kiev. Siberian anticyclone now before us is missing — instead we get to the air masses from the Balkans and South-West — so we have significantly softened the winter. "
Earthlings to win time to adapt to the new conditions
Yet today there is a real opportunity to slow down the process of global warming. As assured Christina Rudnitskaya, "mankind has all the technical means to reduce greenhouse gas emissions" — the main human impact of climate change.
Each year, the UN organizes international negotiations on climate change, which is presented and the Ukraine. "Unfortunately, the position of our country means only the growth of greenhouse gas emissions."
But, paradoxically, even if Earthlings can reduce its negative impact on the planet to a minimum, the natural factor remains — reminded George Veremiychik. Global warming will have a place to be, but its slow speeds will enable all life on Earth to adapt to new conditions of existence. He noted that much cheaper cost measures to prevent climate change than adapting to abnormal temperatures. If today's "preventive" rather spend 1-2% of global GDP per year, in 50 years, this amount will increase to 20%, "the effectiveness of these investments will be much lower than it is today."
Weather forecasts come to an end
Unfortunately, the guests "Observer" failed to satisfy the curiosity of journalists and readers on climate change forecast for the near future. "The main problem of forecasting — how it will be summer, what will be the winter — is that the system has become unbalanced and unpredictable" — said Christina Rudnytska.
By the way, yesterday's press conference, "Observer" talked to several forecasters of different levels, but they refused to give one what else projections for the camera. "Scientists refuse to give long-term forecasts, because of the climate system can happen anywhere," — explained the expert.
Therefore relevant only one piece of advice: improvise with improvisations weather!