Scientists predict seismic attenuation in northern Sakhalin

Specialists of the Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics (IMGG) Sakhalin, Far East Branch informed that the seismic activity recorded in the north of Sakhalin from October 2012 to January 2013, does not exceed the long-term observation and will gradually fade over time, the press service of the institute.

This information announced at the regular meeting Sakhalin branch of the Russian expert advice on earthquake prediction, seismic hazard assessment and risk Laboratory Head of Seismology Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics (IMGG) FEB RAS Ivan Tikhonov.

The scientist said that from 21 October 2012 to January 2013 in the south-east of the Gulf of Baikal there were two series of seismic events. The main push in the first series had a magnitude of 5.2. The second series of activity began on 24 January this year, an event with a magnitude of 4.6, after which there were seven aftershocks.

"These earthquakes are formed on the map rather dense area, located almost in the zone of earthquake effect in 1932 with a magnitude of 5.5. Within the same fault of the crust (35 km to the south) in 1957, there were another earthquake of the same strength. Thus, the flash of seismic activity in the area southeast of the Gulf of Baikal is quite natural, "- said Tikhonov.

Could trigger a re-activation of a push February 8, 2011 with a magnitude of 5.1 in the source zone Neftegorsk earthquake of 1995. This aftershock is close enough (at a distance of about 44 kilometers) to the site of the event October 21, 2012.

According to scientists, the seismic process in January 2013 in the study area can be seen as a continuation of aftershocks after the earthquake, 21 October 2012. This process is characterized by a lower activity compared to the seismicity of 2012.

"How long it will last is hard to say. However, over time it will weaken. A more likely scenario, in which seismic activity here will continue to fade. Scenario of a strong earthquake of magnitude 6.0-6.5 less likely," — said Tikhonov.

As a result, expert advice on earthquake prediction formulated the conclusion that at the time of the seismic activity in the Okha District is within the long-term observations and, most likely, will gradually fade over time.

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