The format of Belarus' participation in the Customs Union "troika" will be resolved, it is plausible, July 5 in Astana. There will be a meeting of the heads of states of the Customs Union of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia. Official Minsk still binds its full part in this structure with Moscow's refusal of duties on oil supplied to Belarus.
To date, formally Belarus — is a member of the Customs Union "troika". Relevant documents Alexander Lukashenko signed in December last year in Minsk, when here came Dmitry Medvedev and Nursultan Nazarbayev. However, unlike his colleagues, he has not yet signed the Customs Code. Without this document, the Customs Union can not be pavnavartasnasnym.
Deputy Director of the CIS Institute in Moscow Vladimir Zharihin predicts that in Astana Alexander Lukashenko will sign the Customs Code:
"I think that Belarus still join, because the possibilities for further negotiations have been exhausted. And be outside the Customs Union, that is, to the fact that there will be customs border between Russia and Belarus — Lukashenko will not. I think , at a meeting of the presidents he still tries something for themselves, "play", but I hope, and I think that it will be fully involved in the customs union and sign a document ratified. "
Victor Alampiev, Deputy Chairman of the Economic Reform in the Supreme Soviet of the 12th convocation, said: build a full-fledged Customs Union "troika" is impossible:
"In my opinion, can not get an equal union of the countries that have different size and structure of the economy. Economy of Russia and Kazakhstan are focused on the sale of natural resources. Belarus since the days of the Soviet Union was and remains the assembly shop. Today, we are implementing the production of 70 percent on foreign markets. because the interests of these countries — different. We need cheaper to buy resources and components, and more expensive to sell Russian oil and gas. Interests incompatible. And because of this customs union can get what you get when you combine a hedgehog and a snake — a coil of barbed Wire ".
Says the same and Belarusian political analyst Vitaly Silitski in the article "Customs trap":
"In the framework of the bilateral relations between Belarus and somehow could deny, but if there are three hand-created majority. Course, Russia and Kazakhstan, which is almost the same type of economy and similar interests in terms of customs rezhymu.To way to" the union of three "was only subjugation and repression of the Belarusian economy by Russia, and the union was planned and carried out as a tool for economic and political blackmail Belarus. "
Vladimir Zharihin calls saying that Russia wants to finally subdue Belarus via Kazakhstan, untrue:
"Kazakhstan led no less tough negotiations with Russia during the preparation of the documents of the Customs Union. However, Kazakhstan not to politicize the issue and could not stand it in the political dimension of relations. And even more so — in the face than ever Alexander G. sins. They were sufficiently complex negotiations. Nevertheless, Moscow and Astana have found a compromise. "