Over the past 17 years remains very precarious peace in Nagorno-Karabakh. As you know, de jure the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic comes into the Azerbaijan, but in fact it has long life of its own. With all of this on the ground NKR is now home to the vast number of ethnic Armenians, who, understandably, do not want to manage their territory was conducted in Baku. In Nagorno-Karabakh have long bodies have their own little state authorities who are working hard to ensure that the international community has recognized the independence of the Republic.
There is now a working agreement, according to which Armenia and Azerbaijan with the active mediation of the Russian Federation in open dialogue about the future of Nagorno-Karabakh. But, despite the constant meetings favorites of these countries and other contacts at the highest level until about any progress in the upcoming issue of the fate of Nagorno-Karabakh read is not necessary. Why? Yes, the fact that both Armenia and Azerbaijan are on their own positions as referred to death. The Armenian side says about international law, namely, that any civilization in the world has the right to self-determination. The inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh has long been determine and want to live in the independent state. Azerbaijan is the fact that any state on the planet has to maintain its integrity. A time comes in Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan, then split into two countries to Baku unacceptable. The Azerbaijani side argues that Stepanakert is ready to provide the broadest autonomy, but a part of Azerbaijan.
These polar positions is difficult to reduce to a common denominator. In this situation, the mediation of the Russian Federation can play a major role. But this is, as everyone knows, it will be very difficult. So, what's all the same in such a situation may offer their employees Moscow CIS. On the one hand, we must try to take into account the interests of both Armenia and Azerbaijan, but there is another side — his own reputation in the region. Self-interest of, certainly, are the stability in the Caucasus area. The concrete can be considered that in the event of a resumption of hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh and the situation escalated in the North Caucasian republics of the most RF. And here is another close by Georgia, with its desire to resume control of Sukhumi and Tskhinvali. Overall, if No wonder the purpose of the incarnation Myagenko political maneuvering, the problems will not escape.
Recall that the first 90 military conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh led to countless victims and the expulsion of the Azerbaijani population from the territory of the autonomy. Many Azerbaijanis lost their own shelter, and, no doubt, want to return to their homeland to live in peace and harmony. But it can be achieved if the world, if memory still fighting acts of 17 years ago. At this time, the area of NKR has had time to grow a generation that is not aware of how to live under the same roof with Muslim Azerbaijan. Situation close to a stalemate.
With great passion gaze at the settlement of the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict and other countries in the region. First, it is Iran and Turkey. However, these countries account for almost polar positions. Turks support the Baku-intensive and do not want to consider the claims of Armenia to the fact that Azerbaijan has given NKR independence. Iran, in turn, is not so tightly interwoven with Baku and, in principle, would not mind if I broke off a piece of the Azerbaijan area.
What still profitable in this situation Moscow? In connection with the latest news from Azerbaijan, the authorities of this country want the government to do its part of the transmission system, which would bypass Russia. It turns out that if our home will act for the preservation of the territorial integrity Azerbaijan, it is de facto lose in gas disputes. Of course, the specific support Baku from Moscow certainly is not something that can suit the Kremlin. At this time, Armenia at this stage still retains a more pragmatic approach to relations with Russia, and the means and the support it deserves in general, than Azerbaijan. In addition, the army Yerevan has assembled and trained more than an army of Azerbaijan, which in spite of its own population managed to lose the war in 1994 the army of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic.
It turns out that the Russian Federation would be profitable bloodless secession of Nagorno-Karabakh in Azerbaijan. And if this is a benefit, the process needs to be translated. The situation with the office of the NKR can be fully utilized for their own purposes, putting pressure on Baku, Ilham Aliyev, if indeed dare intensively involved in the project "Nabucco" by circumvent RF gas pipe. Here it does not matter what kind of support outside of Azerbaijan does not compare to the fact that he may lose from confrontation with Moscow.
In general, any samples to resolve the situation unilaterally, as it tried to Georgia in 2008, may not end just high-spirited Stepanakert branch of Baku, and large-scale conflict in the region. To prevent this, you must take a position that will suit all parties smoldering conflict. With all this position should be also profitable for Russia. If the brotherhood of nations has long speech is not, then in the situation of the global crisis for their loyalty can and should seek dividends. The market is the market … The best prize from that strategy — it's a long investment that will bring not only economic, and geopolitical income.