Experts have calculated the risk for RF

The epicenter of the second wave of the crisis, of course, will be Europe. In fact, the recession in the euro zone has already started — six member countries of the Commonwealth of monetary economies in recession. And if in the most acute phase of the economic collapse of the previous one, and could not think about the disappearance of the euro, now the question of its future is the most discussed, though the true difficulties of planetary scale has not even begun. "The recession in the euro area, albeit small, in the range of 1%, but will.'s Debt crisis is likely to worsen and become a detonator in other areas," — stated the world ex-Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin said at the forum "Our homeland and the world: 2012 -2020 ". First, in his view, not be good for Eastern European countries: they will be left without credit, and in the end will be in a most profound failure than their Western neighbors.

In general, the problem faced by the advanced countries, is a long, but not fatal, the chairman of the Board of Directors of MDM Bank Oleg Vyugin. The main difficulty is economical consolidation task, since it appeals to the ability of politicians to take these or other solutions. On this front favorites EU has not managed to achieve any noticeable success, which, in fact, gives rise to uncertainty, giving food to the gloomy forecasts. But the European economy quite strong, has good strength and potential in store. "At some point, the debt will be solved the problem, of course, a very low growth rate — predicts Viyugin. — Nothing, it will need to survive."

As for RF, its position, usually, will depend on the world situation. Internal circumstances that could lead to a severe crisis in the immutability of the external environment, the country is not, the director of Macroeconomic Research at HSE Sergei Aleksashenko. And the sovereign debt of the Russian Federation is small. But if you add to it the corporate, the total debt burden on the economy will exceed 50%. According Vyugina, it's not very critical figure, but still significant. And it could be measured, if it were not for the realization that even the opportunity to serve such duty is dependent on the external economic environment. The debt crisis in Russia materialize, if sharp fall in the price of oil, warns expert.

Inflated sensitivity to external incidents verbovaniyu prevents foreign investors. The situation can be corrected with proper macroeconomic management and the creation of the applicable institutional environment for business (again, in the area of enforcement). The failure is that we do not have a slender financial strategy with true values and prescribed rassredotachivaniem resources on the main fronts, Kudrin has been criticized. Previously approved the "Plan 2020" does not correspond to the changed conditions, and can not serve as a reference. A brand new "Strategy 2020" is still only a set of scenarios. There are quite equilibrium three-year budget, but there is nothing beyond that date.

According to the Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Anton Siluanova, his department is currently preparing proposals to improve fiscal policy. Economical sustainability is the foundation of macroeconomic stability, he said. Without macroeconomic stability, investors will not see the country and, consequently, the growth of tax revenue in those areas that do not apply to oil and gas revenues. Namely, to improve the capacity of the Ministry of Finance tax is exploring the possibility of growth of non-cash payments in the economy, which should help to reduce the informal sector. At present in Russia fraction cash payment is 25% of the total money supply, while in other developing countries — about 15%, while in developed — 7-10%.

By the way, about the budget. Many forum members are not paid attention to the actual topic of rapid increase in military spending. Thus, the director of the Institute "Development Center" HSE Natalia Akindinova, presenting the results of a survey of leading Russian professionals in the fields of economics, noted that more 80% of them believe that those defense spending, the solution of which was accepted, Russian budget by 2020 to allow themselves can not. Support of colleagues and Aleksashenko. "Why do we compete with the state, whose GDP is 10 times more, why we can not moderate their appetites of the military, being the 6th or 7th power of this indicator? Why spend money on a reflection of threats that no one can understand construct? "- he asks.

Alexei Kudrin, not failing to recall specifically what militarization of the budget was the main precondition for his resignation, highlighted that it is always considered the issue not only from the economical point of view. The point is not whether the government in today's criteria to allow yourself the luxury and the need to set goals. In 1-x, RF it is not necessary to have the same army as the United States. There are other tasks, among which a separate line spelled considerable waste in the management of local fighting in war zones around the world. We also for the defense and preservation of nuclear parity requires even fewer people and resources. Especially since the if talk about the transition to a contract system in which inexperienced recruits will change the master. In addition, the Russian military industry, acquired as a legacy from the Soviet Union, is not effective enough in order to perform in terms of installed programs all expected volume of orders. Even if this program from stretch to 15 years (instead of 10), it will be more perfectly sums up the ex-minister.

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