What will happen with Russia?

What will happen with Russia?

What will happen with Russia? Unfortunately we can not say that in recent years we are expected to "milk and honey and milk and honey." It sounds mundane, but that "everything was normal" over the stick as "slaves in the galleys." You can remember the feat of the Russian people in the 30-50s of the 20th century. Let's not talk about the life of Europeans and the inhabitants of the United States, their fullness and well-being also comes to an end. Because people tyschami take to the streets of cities in Spain, Greece, Great Britain, the United States and other countries, demanding to return the old standards of living, but it will not. Freebie over.

In Russia will hardly better, if not the magic happen, as it is not clear that today's Russians deserved it. Such a conclusion — the sad future of Russia and its inhabitants makes in his book "The project of the coming of. Place acceptable "Lena Ponomarev, Doctor of Political Sciences, Associate Professor of Comparative Politics at MGIMO.

His views on the future of the Lena Ponomariova Russian Federation can develop in 5 scenarios, almost all of them are sad:

First scenario — Is stagnating, the preservation of existing provisions in the coming 2-5 years. If Russia does not occur native configuration, waiting for her upcoming degradation inherited from the USSR, infrastructure, education, medicine, human capital, food security, and so on. As a result — the half-life of the country and the transition to the second scenario.

Second scenario is even sadder — A "Yugoslav scenario", this particular scenario await our "Western friends". The destruction of the Russian Federation for almost-independent part, the central government is increasingly losing the threads of control and turns for help to the EU and NATO. Comes the actual occupation of the area of the Russian Federation, first areas with important natural resources, businesses, their primary treatment. RF section on the scope of the impact between the major global players, the creation of protectorates.

Third scenario is a little more optimistic, If the word can be applied. Our home will not be ruined and occupied prior to entering the world of the political system in a real band, "storm", in comparison with which the current crisis, not even flowers. The world faces ruthless war, conflict, famine, mass epidemics, aside not one remains. Very suffer all the major players, Our homeland is also incur a heavy loss, but thanks to a number of their own advantages — the availability of tremendous resources, including water and earth, thanks to excellent compared educated population will be able to get an excellent starting conditions for a breakthrough, in a new world.

The fourth scenario, E. Ponomarev it calls the "Russian Black Swan" — is difficult to predict, a rare chance when one or a few unexpected events Fractures not a good situation. In practice, this magic that has happened a couple of times in our history when enemies have celebrated their victory, but our home was revived against all logic. Russia's magic can be a response to the desperate situation in which the political elite will have to decide yourself as before to keep the western course, which has almost led to the death of the Russian Federation and the Russian stripped of their own culture. Either start the hard way of building its own Russian Way to the Future.

Fifth scenario as catastrophic, it is associated with the global man-made disaster, natural or even an alien character. Today's apocalyptic mood of many people on the views of a number of professionals who are not accidental but caused specifically the possibility of such a scenario. In the course of such disasters today the world's population will crash, losing a huge population of the planet and technical potential. The survivors begin the hard way is to create a modern human civilization.

More applicable to the Russian and other indigenous peoples of the post-Soviet space scenario "Russian Black Swan." At its base is the rejection of the neoliberal model, which is currently being hard put to return to socialism. The introduction of "neozemstva" — self-government at the local level, with the help of new technologies, failure of today's bureaucracy (for the most part). Create neoimperii, exclusively in the Russian Empire and other nations have adopted Russian culture will be safe and in full belief in its future.

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