Yuri Little Sheep: How to Protect Syria in the criteria for the impending intervention of the West

February 27 there were two actions that do not leave any hesitation that the U.S. led coalition hastily nailed together made the final decision to perform the Libyan scenario in Syria municipal coup — the invasion of the country against the civilian war. With all this the West does not want to pay any attention to at least the outer "decency" in the framework of the current world of law, including the absence of the respective UN Security Council resolutions (in this subject we will return at the end of comment) and performing all the power of joint armed forces on the side 1st of the conflict.

In 1-x, 27 foreign ministers of the EU countries have announced the recognition of the opposition Syrian National Council "legitimate representative of Syrians", paving the way for negotiations with the guerrillas. In-2, Hillary Clinton said that the West is like in Syria held a referendum, and that the vast majority of Syrians who voted supported the proposed configurations of Bashar al-Assad in the constitution: "This is -" sham "referendum results which will be applied Assad to justify the actions that he decided against the Syrian people, "- she said. — From time to time for violent overthrow of regimes takes time and there is a price of human lives — continued Secretary of State. — I would wish people surrounding al-Assad, realized that they would still be done, although it may not happen tomorrow or the following week. "

That is, fundamentally the decision to topple Assad accepted. All we litsezreem now — it's the stages of preparation for the invasion, including the information content. Quite principal, who will conduct it, and how — military fist NATO armies of totalitarian Arab monarchies, "Al-Qaida" or the Libyan rebels. This case selection tool, which will play a part, and in this respect, this is totally neprintsipialen, except military qualities of the operation.

Repeat all the things that we have followed in Libya — the injection of information hysteria, pressure on all channels on the political leader and the coming environment, the backbone of the armed forces and security services company in the area of provocations of Syria, the creation of a bridgehead-based gangs, the introduction of unmanned areas, creating a humanitarian reasons for the invasion, carrying out "humanitarian" convoy to the bridgehead, landing elite units of special forces, a number of armed clashes, etc. As a result, another country will go to the dustbin of history. This scenario, in one form or another, is already written. And it will be implemented by a coalition of Western without a hitch, without a hitch. But in this case, if Syria, like Libya, is left alone with the enemy. And this is — whether Syria to fight the world's policeman in "splendid isolation" or not — is a major unknown in this geopolitical equation.

So, we select the main thing — without the support of true friends Syria, rather than dancing to the tune of U.S. State Department and personally Madame Clinton, the West at some point dodavit Assad, even in the case of long-term war, and will make randomization Syria. Accordingly, the question is, can the friends of Syria assist the Syrian people to avoid intervention and in what forms it can be done.

Make out the options.

1. "Unblemished diplomacy." In this scenario, Russia, China, Iran and other limited partners Assad diplomatic statements and do not address any other steps to prevent anger. West, of course, does not direct any attention to these empty words, systematically prepares an operation to change the government and spends her bolshennymi or with minimal losses themselves. After this significant shows to the world that no longer has any formal restrictions on its activities on reformatting the world that the UN and the entire system of international law, emerged from the second world war, you can utilize your. The orgy of unrestrained force anything broadcast in the global media, followed in turn by reformatting rises Iran.

Subvariant of this scenario is to send Tehran to help Bashar Assad Iranian army units to contain the anger. It's entirely possible that at some time it will slow down the development of a negative scenario for Syria. It may even make it more difficult to implement and will lead to a deadlock situation. But it will be a temporary respite, as in this case, not Syria, and Iran has become a priority target for the Western coalition forces. Accordingly, it is possible to imagine that Western strategists also to anticipate this scenario and try to do everything possible to Iran did not send an army to support Assad. This can be done only in one case — if Iran will hang over the Damocles sword of the invasion. In this case, the army is useful to Iran itself. That is, for Western intervention in Syria and the beginning of the war with Iran is actually a momentary. Iran understands this and who can use the invasion of the Western coalition troops in Syria for their own benefit and to make a preemptive strike. But again — if Iran and Syria will stand alone against the Western coalition, they defeat a foregone conclusion — Syria will be invaded, and Iran vbomblen in the Middle Ages — a direct invasion and occupation of the area, most likely, will not. After that, start chaos in Iran and the West will be even easier to take power into their own hands, using their own local sixes.

Such a scenario will slow down, maybe even for a long time, a procession of Western neo-fascism on the planet, but did not suspend him. By mid-2013 the West's attention will be drawn back to Russia and China.

2. "Diplomacy power struggle with the elements." In this scenario, Russia and China are not limited to unsubstantiated political statements in the spirit of "a hundred thousand Chinese warnings" that is simply stuffed on edge, and solve some measure of force countering the western scenario invasion of Syria. Though scenario and very unlikely, but let's say that after diplomatic artillery barrage all the same is submitted to a separate forces and parts of Russia and China (in addition to those already present forces of Iran) to Syria on the border with Turkey, Israel, Iraq's second tier of defense under the guise of "humanitarian convoys with stewed meat, medicines and medical practice groups of physicians under the cover of tanks and armored personnel carriers. scenario is very unlikely. But in August 2008, and the protection of the new Russian North Caucasus countries there were many thing is very, very unlikely. Yet fruition is just the most unlikely scenario that indicate a change in position in the world between the leading global players and the redistribution of forces in the world. This can happen in Syria.

Is it suspends Western intervention? I think so. Since In this case, the world is on the brink of World War III with the danger of escalation of the conflict in the nuclear stage, and the West not ready for it. Because, most likely, these measures will be enough, that expansion of the West braked. After that, the world will slide to the latest era of "cool war" and will be forever broken into two irreconcilable camps. The confrontation will go into the economic and financial level and very quickly move to the stage of the struggle for survival. In principle, we are used to, in fact, it can be said that most of the inhabitants of the Russian Federation and other CIS countries in this stage after the collapse of the Russian Union and did not go out. Because we are, yet marsh plankton that had to grow zhirok consumption is creepy. West restructure will be even more difficult. In this case there will be destruction of the international trading system, the dollar will lose its stat
us as the world currency, the regionalization of the world will, in principle, we need at the time, because globalization — it is a purely Western project on pumping out resources from the rest of the world within the framework of unequal exchange.

In this scenario, the West can go only to non-nuclear conflict. His anger will be kept as part of the Iran-Syria, Israel and the activity will be neutralized by the presence of Syrian troops in Russia and China — and no one rocket Israel.

That is, the script is good. He, of course, threatens severe losses. But in-1's, they do not compare with the defeat, in-2, the loss for the West will be even more severe. In fact, it will be a victory in battle, and the enemy will be stopped on the far outskirts of Moscow, Damascus, Tehran, Beijing. The future of whole EU would be at a huge issue, and if it will collapse due to failure of Germans to finance Europe for its own account, our homeland and Germany to get a unique opportunity to conclude a new pact of peace, friendship and good neighborhood.

3. "Asymmetrical response". Very carefully and perfectly the scenario considered in the material Victor Bourbaki "Can Iran beat America in the" big war "?" (Http://www.fondsk.ru/pview/2012/01/10/mozhet-li-iran-pobedit-ameriku-v-bolshoj-vojne.html).

To give just one quote: "In principle, the search for" winning behavioral strategies, "Iran may be carried out in the framework of 3 basic paradigms:

1. Traditional strategy of "normal combat," which is most likely a pre-lose-lose for Iran and Syria because of incompatibility of U.S. military power.

2. The strategy of "orderly risk" associated with the construction of "Christmas Tree" (variant) of the structures response actions aimed at oppressing "Boyd cycle" with the assessment of effectiveness of the options and the "cut-off" ineffective "branches."

3. The strategy of "emergent risk," is caused by "a sudden incident finals," aimed, namely, the implementation of the criterion of "working" as those provided in the famous "theorem Liddell Hart." Specifically, it is necessary to do so, that for the United States (and in general for the "party of war"), the post-war "winning" the world was worse than before the war.

Just create the strategy "normal combat" is connected with the introduction, usually "conventional" forces and means and methods of implementation. The strategy of "orderly risk" means used in conjunction with the "conventional" and "unconventional" capabilities. The strategy is "an emergent risk" is almost entirely based on the "unconventional" war. "

Accordingly, if Iran can only be a win-win option unconventional impact on the Western coalition forces, the Russian Federation and the PRC that variant responses may also be applicable. Under such a scenario, you need to identify sensitive points U.S. and hit them a momentary bump. For example, China's dumping of U.S. treasuries, blocking transit to Afghanistan via Pakistan and the area of, sale of Russia's own oil and gas from the 1st of at least some months of 2012, only for rubles, blocking the Strait of Hormuz, Iran and many others. etc. But the main thing — the transfer of military operations in the area of the enemy. West kill innocent inhabitants of Syria and Iran, respectively, Syria and Iran get the full moral right to stop the aggressor and begin to destroy its civilian population, industrial, transport and information infrastructure, just as the U.S. and NATO were doing it in Yugoslavia, Iraq and Libya. Especially since Iran already has a positive example of asymmetric warfare in nedavneshnem past.

As for the Russian Federation, then it has the ability to pre-emptive strikes on U.S. satellites in the region. Since the last act of Qatar, at first, beating the Russian ambassador to the country, as anger against Libya and Syria have long been subject to Article 22 of the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation. For earlier only need to make a news report, "the Russian Foreign Ministry asks all the people of the Russian Federation to leave Qatar to 24.00 on a certain date such month." That's all. I think it is enough to Qatari authorities dismantled the scenery was just assembled one of the main squares of Damascus Saab-Bahrat.

As the U.S. and its allies will carry severe loss on its own terrain, the war will be over. With this milestone can be developed and coming from other directions. Accordingly, a more adequate current threats is the third version of the response of the anti-Western coalition in the likely scenario of U.S. and NATO aggression against the Syrian and Iranian people.

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