By 2030, the working population of Russia will be reduced by 12%, and the demographic problem will be one of the major limitations of Russia. This was stated by Minister of Economic Development of Russia Elvira Nabiullina.
"We estimate that by 2030 the working-age population of Russia decreased by 12%," — said Nabiullina, referring to forecasts of the department. Demographic problem is cited as one of the limitations of long-term growth in Russia. Thus, the decline in working age population will cause deficits in the labor market and lead to the need to fund activities to mitigate the pressure on this market. However, the Minister noted that to reduce mortality in the working-age population, there are "great possibilities."
Another topic raised at the International Academic Conference on Economic and Social Development, has become Russia's export of hydrocarbons. According to the forecast of the Ministry, the price of Urals oil in 2012 will amount to $ 115 per barrel. Previous forecast sets the average price at $ 100. While waiting for prices to 2013th and 2014 ($ 97 and $ 101 per barrel, respectively) are the same.
"We proceed from the assumption that oil prices will decline, this year could be reduced, according to updated our forecast, the average price of oil this year could reach 115 dollars", — said Nabiullina.
The gradual decline in revenues from hydrocarbon exports leads to the need to increase non-oil exports. According to the Minister of Economic Development, Russia must increase its 2.5 times in 2020 and 7.5 times by 2030. At the same time, the minister voiced forecasts, while maintaining the structure of commodity economy and the current investment climate in Russia's economic growth will slow to 3.2% per year.
The share of innovative sector in the Russian economy will grow from 11% today to 12-13% by 2015 and 16% by 2020, RIA Novosti reported. Also, by this time an update waiting staff and increase research capacity in Russia.
According Nabiulin, the macroeconomic impact of these changes to apply to the 2018-2020 year. "According to our calculations, this would mean a shift from two to three percent annual growth to the growth of not less than 4.4% up to 2030", — she said. In this case, the ministry expects that the share of Russia in the world economy will grow from 3% to 3.5%. As for the world economy, it is up to 2030, the average will grow by 3.3% per year, RBC reports. Such rates, according to Nabiullina be associated with declining growth Asian economies.