In 2007, Wieslaw Maslowski of the Naval Postgraduate U.S. and his colleagues predicted that the summer Arctic will be ice-free in 2013. After enduring a barrage of criticism, the researchers have made changes to the computer model and got a "more precise" date — 2016-th.
Plus or minus three years.
The new model reflects the interaction between the Arctic ocean, atmosphere, sea ice and rivers carrying freshwater into the sea. "Last time we just extrapolate current trends for the future, — says Mr. Maslowski. — Now we come to the question more systematically. Our model of the Arctic climate is very similar to those global models used by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for their predictions. "
This time, the critics are not so sure of themselves, although this prediction is more pessimistic than the others. Walt Meier of the National Center for Snow and Ice Data U.S. notes that in the Arctic increases the relative area of a young, thin ice, which is usually in the summer melt. Therefore, any predictions for the future are dim. "We Maslovskoye good model, it can take into account the details that are lost in the global chart, — he says. — Still, in 2019 — it's very close, even more so — 2016-th. I trust date of 2040-2050 years. "
In 2007, there was another event: Arctic ice melting at record speed. 2010 has been better, but some scientists believe it and revealing, as the weather conditions favored the formation of thick ice, and he could not grow as it should.
The most important thing about this story is that it is of interest only to scientists and environmental activists. Authorities in Canada and Russia can not wait when the Arctic ice-free longer, because then we can begin to develop untapped areas of the earth's interior.
The results were presented at the European Geosciences Union.