Tokyo may disappear in 50 years

01.09.2004

01.09.2004


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Experts from the Japanese Committee for Earthquake Research (Earthquake Research Committee) published a report showing that the capital of the country is waiting for the ordeal for the next 50 years.

Accurate prediction of earthquakes in a long time — it is still impossible, in spite of all attempts to create such a system and the many signs of the disaster, who have learned to recognize people.

However, many patterns can be detected by studying the statistics of earthquakes in specific areas. It is a statistical approach used by Japanese scientists to predict the fate of Tokyo.

The last time an earthquake of great strength the city experienced in 1923. Then killed 140,000 people. A huge number of buildings destroyed or burned.

Of course, living in a seismically active zone, the Japanese have long ago learned to build sustainable buildings. Hardly in with the residents of the Rising Sun beats someone else.

However, the nature and sometimes overpowers the best construction. A powerful earthquake January 17, 1995 in Kobe killed more than 6,000 people. It was after this event was created by the new committee for earthquake research.

Now he intently studied all 98 active fault lines in Japan. This work will be completed at the end of March 2005.

A committee has recently published new data, based mainly on the analysis of statistics.

Thus, the probability of an earthquake in Tokyo force of more than 7 points over the next decade is 30%, for 30 years — the chance to grow up to 70% and the probability that an earthquake will occur in over half a century — is already 90%.

7 points — this is very serious. And by the way, the likelihood of even more devastating earthquake measuring 8 points (a scale that we observe is not linear), although very low, but not zero. For the next 30 years, it is estimated somewhere between zero and 0.8%.

31.08.2004

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