The Chairman and the Collective Security Treaty Organization

Society CSTO summit in Armenia ended a week ago, things of the past assumptions go back to Lukashenko, which means his arrival two days earlier and leaving a day early, or he's there to make peace with Medvedev, etc. Dry surrender was a perfect shot boring Lukashenko of Belarus and consent to take starshynyavanne the CSTO. Here is the latest — what does it mean?

Does it mean that in the information and even more — a political war between the Kremlin and the official Minsk come if not the world, at least temporarily peramire?

Most likely — it does not. It is worth recalling that the temporary chairman of the CSTO's rotating Belarus had be in June last year. But then came the milk "war" and Minsk as a demarche refused to intrude on the post and went around the signing of a Rapid Reaction Corps (RRF) of the CSTO.

Then, in the fall of last year, agreed to sign a contract, but the technical chairman of the organization has remained Russia. Now the usual order was restored, so that in this case, if anyone went to the microscopic concession, the Lukashenko, not Moscow. Demarche, and the demonstration was over.

Moscow contradict Belarus to exercise its legitimate right, it would be pretty wild — possibly other CSTO heads of state and are not eager to defend Belarusian counterpart to Moscow's pressure, but violation of the procedure would create a precedent. And Moscow has enough problems with the "brothers in arms" in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, to further burden them, enduring contradiction with the Belarusian allies in the level of the whole organization.

Three in one

All the more so that we are talking about things is symbolic. This is not to slight and insignificant, in international relations magic symbols plays a crucial role. Well, to declare war on Russia Belarus is not going to be excluded from the CSTO — also, so that's a symbol of the Belarusian starshynyavannya nothing interferes.
And this is indeed just a symbol. I think that no one remembers who, say, is now a temporary chairman of the CIS. And I do not remember, and even Google is not useful to find out. And who in the Union of Belarus and Russia — remember. And it sounds ridiculous — President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko. And his command within the union state — Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin. And it helps that Lukashenko starshynyavanne?
In addition to the military alliance, which is the Collective Security Treaty Organization, the influence of its members, regardless of the formal starshynyavannya distributed in accordance with their military potential. And Russia militarily several times stronger than the other members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization together.

In addition, as noted in an interview Freedom Armenian expert Sergey Minasyan, the CSTO is actually three different military alliances with Russia — with Belarus and Armenia and the countries of Central Asia. Too weak links between others, in addition to Russia, members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, they are too different in this union interests. There is, however, the version that the appointment of the CSTO — be the gendarme of the post-Soviet space, stifles freedom-loving nations against the gusts of corrupt dictatorships.

Maybe so, maybe it's just a horror story. In Kyrgyzstan, for example, or in April, when dumped Bakiyev, nor in June, when the Kyrgyz and Uzbeks slaughtered each other, CSTO did not intervene.

Belarusians under NATO tanks in the streets of Osh

However, this does not mean that the CSTO anyone but Russia does not need it. Armenia needs the same, as opposed to a military threat from Azerbaijan — the threat is not hypothetical. Erevan and may not be 100% sure that Moscow will protect it in the event of a conflict, but Baku can not be sure that will not protect.

In Central Asia, the threat of Islamist uprisings and even invading foreign "guests" — also not abstract, especially, by the way, after the planned U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.

The Darkest motivation — in Belarus: to go to NATO tanks, if they rush to Moscow. Apparently, not eating, not sleeping — are gearing up for the throw.

However, there is still such a thing as a lower-allied prices within the CSTO in service. To the Russian in the first place and preferentially.

With this triune nature of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, it follows that none of the three segments of the organization does not have much desire to fight for others. It is assumed that if anything at all will fight Russia.

By the way, when Lukashenko offered to send troops to Kyrgyzstan, CSTO — he deliberately did not expect to failure? And if you would say — yes, it really is sent to the Belarusian soldiers to fight? It seems that the very first coffin out very expensive cost to the president of Belarus in the mass consciousness.

"Father" and "bear"

Summuyuchy, we can say that the political war between Moscow and Minsk, Belarus starshynyavanne in the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the sign will not affect its termination will not. And by the tone of Russian media is unlikely until the termination, NTV, according to rumors, the next "Godfather" vayae.

By the destruction of the entire structure of the bilateral relations, this war is not yet reached, and is unlikely to reach, even if Kremlin really has far-reaching plans for Lukashenko that not obvious. It Lukashenko sometimes uses these kinds of threats, as mentioned last year's move to the Collective Security Treaty Organization. But looking at his gentle tone assessments "Bateko the Cross," he prefers to protect deaf and not a sharp counter-attacks. Counterattacks were appropriate when the Russian "bear" waving paw sporadically and essentially quite lazy. If the movement of his paws and teeth, there is now a definite sense of purpose and even metadychnasts might have preferred not to give zeal that movement actions in response.

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