The collapse of industrial production in January fueled expectations of its fast growth

In January 2013Russian industryshowed the worst annual result since October 2009 (-0.8%) and the seasonally adjusted (-1.5%) — since the height of the crisis in November 2008. Analysts consensus which assumed a marked increase in industrial production in January, called the findings "shocking" and find a different justification Rosstat figures. Meanwhile, industrial production predicting a "return to trend" in the coming months, and the Central Bank — the inevitable transition to a weakening of monetary policy. The fall in industrial production in January is not presaged no leading indicators that point to improved sentiment and plans of Manufacturers (PMI HSBC and Markit, the index of business confidence index HSE and the Federal State Statistics Service), nor the forecasts of analysts, who expected to increase production by 1.4% in annual terms. "Observed decline in industrial production in January, looks awesome. Nobody expected. Data contradict the positive leading indicators," — said Alexander Morozov from HSBC.

For the 0.8% annual decline, which was preceded by sustained slowdown in production, according to Rosstat, primarily responsible mining sector (-1.2%), or more precisely, the reduction of oil and gas production caused by contraction of external demand. Treatment was reduced to 0.3%, most likely due to the Christmas holidays, and the production and distribution of electricity, gas and water which added 1.8%, keeping the industrial output from plunging further. Mr. Morozov, apparently explaining the discrepancy between the data of Rosstat estimates and PMI, which relate to processing, presented the agency "Interfax" the following calculations: if not declines, the overall pace of the industry in the annual comparison would have been 0%, noting that " Overall growth in the processing goes on. " "The breakdown of the production of key industrial products indicates that the weakest figures come from the sectors of machinery and equipment, certain products of the chemical and light industries" — indicates Dmitry Polevoy from ING Russia. In this case, HSBC and ING Russia indicate a failure investtovarov production, and production of consumer goods against the background of rapid growth in consumer lending of households (see "Today's Date") continues to grow.

In turn, the failure of the industry in January to a seasonally adjusted was even more significant — Rosstat fix quite a crisis indicator. CMASF estimates the fall in industrial production in January 2013 compared with December 2012 as practically and Statistics — 1.6%. From the calculation of the center that grew only in the production of rubber and plastic products (2.1%), building materials (1.9%) and oil (0.3%) and wood (1.4%) and metallurgy stagnated . Production of other industries declined.

Analysts tend to assume a one-time drop in the industry, noting that one month, especially since January, nepokazatelen. Alexander Morozov believes that reducing oil, in particular, may be caused by weather conditions and March industrial growth resumes with the rate "within 1.5-2%." Agrees with him, Dmitry Polevoy, offering to wait for the February data. Vladimir Salnikov of CMASF points out, given the seasonality in January 2013 compared with October 2012, that "eliminates the random fluctuations," a quarter of industrial decline due to a reduction in the production of electricity by 10% — in the production of alcohol (probably due increase in excise duties), and the rest — a decline of production engineering goods. However, in the last CMASF associated with the 'protracted industrial vacation. "

Meanwhile, data on industrial production have forced analysts to talk about the fact that the Central Bank rate cut in the near future becomes more evident. On Friday, the head of the Bank of Russia Serey Ignatieff confirmed this: "I hope that in the coming months, inflation will begin to fall. And after that, I hope we will be able to start lowering rates."


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