Forced privatization

Company Statement of Alexander Lukashenko, in This year, Belarus, Russia allocates $ 6 billion, immediately raised doubts about the veracity of this information. First, because, as experience shows, all statements of the Belarusian leader, and especially those which presents some figures, we must reconcile. You may recall how a year ago Belarusian officials have talked about the $ 15-16 billion Chinese loans for Belarus, who have not appeared here. Probably got lost on the way.
 
Second, this information is contrary to the one announced on the eve of Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin.
 
Third, it is clear that the President now seeks to serve psyhaterapevta. That is — to calm the population, business and prove to them that the foreign exchange market will stabilize soon everything will come back to normal, to bring down the devaluation expectations and may stop the growth of OTC exchange rate.
 
Incidentally, the last failed. After the statement Lukashenko exchange rate broke a new record, the excitement began in the consumer market, in anticipation of a rise in price literally sweeping the nation off the shelves in the stores merchandise.
 
Let us now try to understand where did those $ 6 billion, which solemnly declared Lukashenko. Russian Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin offers a very different version, which is radically different from the version of the Belarusian leader. Russian Minister of explanations that any loans this year, the Russian Federation in general is not going to isolate Belarus. Where do these, apparently, the mythical $ 6 billion?
 
According to Kudrin, the situation looks like. As promised on May 11, $ 3 billion in Belarus can be obtained from the EurAsEC Anti-Crisis Fund for three years. And this year in Belarus to get a $ 1 billion remaining two — in 2012 and 2013. Apparently, these loans Lukashenko announced by Russian and stated that all $ 3 billion will come to Belarus This year,.
 
And the remaining $ 3 billion, which Lukashenko said that Belarus would be for them to pay in goods — is, according to Kudrin, not loans, and the money that Belarus will receive for the sale of their businesses. Of course, Russian companies will have to sell. As far as we can judge, the forced privatization — a condition of receiving the loan from the EurAsEC Anti-Crisis Fund.
 
On the question of which assets? Primarily, it is "Beltransgaz". Write about the Russian media. This is hinted at Russian Ambassador to Belarus Alexander Surikov.
 
Now the Russian "Gazprom" has a 50% stake in the company "Beltransgaz". The Russian company paid for its share of the $ 2.5 billion What is the price the second half of "Beltransgaz"? By all estimates, now, when Russia enters the gas pipelines bypassing Ukraine and Belarus, the cost of the transmission system fell. Given the fact that the territory of Belarus is another gas pipeline Yamal — Europe, which is wholly owned by "Gazprom", "Beltransgaz" may be without gas. That is, in theory, arguing that Russia could carry out transit of gas to Europe, do not use this company. Given the fact that the conditions and prices today dictates the Russian, Belarusian leadership in the current situation persist simply is not necessary, because the economic situation in the country is critical. It is logical to assume that cost 50% of "Beltransgaz" will be lower than the first half, which is less than the $ 2.5 billion
 
Therefore, to natargavats this $ 3 billion, will have to sell something else. What?

 
Everyone is talking about Maz. But for the scheme, which offers the Russian side, the Belarusian state will have to part with MAZ free. It is an exchange of shares, the association KAMAZ and MAZ in a holding where the Belarusian enterprise will be owned only 25% of the shares. That is the flagship of the Belarusian industry, its character and the brand will have to give a reason.
 
So, to get to $ 3 billion, we still have to sacrifice something. Refineries? Grodno "Nitrogen"? Really, it is terrible to think, "Belaruskali"? I note that we are not talking about the tender, which, incidentally, provided the Belarusian legislation. Everything is sold to one customer that dictates the price.
 
And all accompanied by reasoning Lukashenko did not raspradamo public property that are not going to reform, to which we are pushing the "fifth column".
 
This is the author's version. Perhaps negotiations between Lukashenko and Putin will make adjustments to it.

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