What are the possible consequences of an incident in the territory of the Russian Embassy?


Members: a methodological Vladimir Mackiewicz and chief editor of the newspaper "Nasha Niva" Andrew Dynko.

Vladimir Mackiewicz

Andrew Dynko

Valery Karbalevich

Or it will ruin the reputation of the Belarusian authorities?

Valery Karbalevich"Perhaps it is not necessary to build a version of who is behind this crime, because it will be pure speculation. There is serious doubt that the police and security services will find the perpetrator. After all, no one high-profile crimes in Belarus rassledavana were found guilty.

It is better to talk about the political consequences of this event. It took place against the backdrop of a sharp aggravation of the Belarusian-Russian relations, information warfare between the official Minsk and Moscow. Is it beneficial to the Belarusian authorities? "

Vladimir Mackiewicz"These dirty methods — is this policy. But at low political culture such actions are possible.

I do not think that this case will be beneficial to the Belarusian authorities. After all, even if it is pronounced just bullying, it is still referred to the event means that the authorities are not in control, even at sites that need strong protection. "

Andrew Dynko"In my opinion, this event will benefit Russia. She wants to present the situation in Belarus as unstable. In Moscow, Russian society want to prove that Belarus is forced russophobia. And so the pressure on Belarus to implement and justify its policy towards Belarus "

What will the reaction of the Russian side?

Karbalevich"Indeed this incident destroys the image of stability and order, which is part of the state ideology. The first official Russian reaction was sharp, but apparently standard in such cases. And the unofficial Russian experts accused the Belarusian authorities of this provocation. Can it enhance the information war, to provoke a new attack on the Belarusian authorities in Moscow. "

Attempts to destabilize fit well into the current policy of Russia.

Mackiewicz"Attempts to destabilize fit well into the current policy of Russia. I think this will be used for the hysteria in the media. Like, look, Belarusians have russophobia. Information warfare — a dirty-carpet game, the real cause of which is unknown. It is in some hot heads urge to that kind of thing. "

Dynko"Moscow's propagandists will file the incident as a result of the policy Lukashenko. Though the episode itself unimportant, it is not arson rayhstaga. But he will be given an exaggerated importance in Moscow.

The best solution for the Belarusian authorities would catch the criminals. This is not a problem. Along the perimeter of the embassy are camcorders. There is a police post. It's no secret that for such objects in the following and other services. But I predict that the Belarusian authorities will be afraid to catch the criminals. "

Karbalevich"I think the problem is not that afraid. Just took a very strong deprafesiyalizatsyya Belarusian law enforcement agencies. "

Reason for the repression of the opposition?

Karbalevich"A similar incident occurred in June 2001. Then the main suspects were members of the "Young Front", a lot of them were interrogated. After the explosion at the disco in Vitebsk as criminals sought by the opposition. The same thing happened after the explosion at the Independence Day in Minsk two years ago. That is, the police and intelligence services reflex, they are not sharpened to fight crime, and with the opposition.

Can the government, and this time take advantage of this crime for the sake of the offensive on the opposition and civil society on the eve of the presidential election? "

Mackiewicz"Certainly so. Today, the opposition behaves calmly, she is engaged in sorting out inside, and does not warrant the harsh repression. A pre-election situation requires the authorities to keep the opposition in good shape. Therefore, the pressure in it increases.

If in such cases, the offenders were not found, then it is beneficial to someone. Because in today's opportunities to find the criminals have no problems. If there is a minimum of professionalism. "

I think the repression of the opposition is unprofitable and useless to the Belarusian authorities.

Dynko"I do not agree that our security agencies deprafesiyalizavanyya. They work better than their counterparts in neighboring states. Among the high-profile criminals are not rassledavanyya, backed by political motives. For example, cases of political disappearances late 1990s virtually investigated. But they were not given the course.

I think the repression of the opposition is unprofitable and useless to the Belarusian authorities. And they will not. This is evidenced by the fact that criminal proceedings instituted by hooliganism, not terrorism. "

Reason for the change of personnel?

Karbalevich"After the explosion at the Independence Day in Minsk two years ago Lukashenko used it to dismiss the Secretary of the Security Council Shejman. It is known that among the security forces is a fierce struggle. Is it possible that this scandal will be used for the realignment of intelligence, law enforcement agencies? "

Mackiewicz"That's what these events are cause and not the cause. At the grassroots, middle level intelligence professionals work. A guide are not very professional. Their work is very harmful to the image of the state. "

Dynko"For example, Moscow would have appreciated a replacement as secretary of the Security Council on Shejman Maltsev. But the West would react negatively to this. And this is more important for Lukashenko. "



SQL - 16 | 0,445 сек. | 6.94 МБ