NOAA hurricane outlook released in 2012

August 24 will be 20 years since a devastating hurricane "Andrew" hit the United States. America. He walked down the path, which was then 13 years later, in 2005, repeated the "Katrina." Greatest destruction "Andrew" in 1992 brought to Florida.

Meteorologists NOAA (National Oceanic and Administration atmosphere) once again remind our fellow citizens that every year you have to be prepared for a possible exit Atlantic hurricanes on the coast.

Experts NOAA, namely units located in Miami, the National Center for tracking hurricanes — Laboratory of Oceanography and Meteorology, and representatives of the Center for climate prediction, issued on the eve of Active weather season tropical storms in the Atlantic, as well as eastern and central North Pacific in 2012.

Conditions developing in the atmosphere and ocean Atlantic, allow meteorologists expect tropical cyclone activity will be close to normal.
Throughout the season, which officially begins June 1 and ends November 1, the Climate Prediction, believes that with probability 70% in the Atlantic formed from 9 to 15 Tropical Storms, who will be assigned names (maximum wind speed of 18 m / s or more). Of them from 4 to 8 reached the stage Hurricane (Wind speed and more than 37 m / s), including from 1 to 3 become very intense hurricanes, Third or higher category on the Saffir-Simpson scale (wind speed of 56 m / s or more). Norm, defined by a series of years 1981-2010, is education 12 stormsin, of them 6 become hurricanes, including 3 very intense hurricane.

«NOAA predicts less tropical cyclone activity compared to previous years", — said the head of NOAA Dr. Jane Lubchenco. "But despite this, the local people and those who will come to rest on the coast should be prepared for potential hazards out the hurricane. We recall the 20th anniversary of the impact of Hurricane "Andrew", who as a hurricane category 5, destroyed southern Florida August 24, 1992. He was the first hurricane of the season, which was formed only six tropical cyclones. "

Of the favorable conditions for storm formation experts still say positive phase multidekadnyh fluctuations in the Atlantic, which began in 1995 and was close to normal temperature of surface water in most of the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea, just in the region with the greatest frequency of occurrence of storms . Factors that could weaken the hurricane activity — it is a strong wind shear in the lower half of the troposphere, which inhibits the development of perturbations, and cooler water in the extreme eastern part of the tropical Atlantic.

"Another potentially influencing factor may be El Nino, when the episode will begin in late summer or early fall. In this case, it was at the peak of activity that falls in August-September, the conditions for the development of hurricanes will be less favorable, and the most likely number to be closer to the lower grades of the forecast, "- said Dr. Gerry Bell, Head of the seasonal forecasts of hurricane center climate forecasts NOAA.

«NOAA significantly improved the monitoring and forecasting of hurricanes since the" Andrew "have been much research and technology development. But still a lot of work in the secret being hurricanes, especially in their rapid intensification or weakening, "said Dr. Jane Lubchenco, -" We go to this project through our improved forecasting of hurricanes, and who has demonstrated significant progress in predicting the intensity of hurricanes ".

Lubchenco added that a more accurate prediction of hurricane intensity at the time of landfall and increasing forecast time up to 5 days, allowing Americans to be weather-ready nation, that is, the Americans are ready to efficiently and optimally respond to the hazards associated with the weather.

As a demonstration of their achievements this season NOAA will present two types of computer models — HWRF, designed for the study and prediction of hurricanes, and the model of the Laboratory of Geophysics and fluid dynamics (GDFL). Resolution HWRF model and description of the physical processes has been greatly improved. The latest version shows a 20 to 25 percent improvement in the forecast track and a 15 percent improvement in forecasting hurricane intensity compared to previous versions. It is also better in terms of presenting the structural features of the hurricane. GDFL model has a more accurate description of physics, it is expected that this season and it will show a higher accuracy of the forecast intensity of the hurricane.

In seasonal forecasts do not provide the escape probability of hurricanes on land.
This is possible only as long as the forecast behavior of a particular hurricane has emerged, which is the immediate and most important task of the National Center for tracking hurricanes (in Miami), which constantly monitors the tropics, determining the likelihood of storms and tracking throughout the entire life cycle. In the arsenal of experts provides detailed satellite imagery, computer models, aircraft-laboratory, ground and marine observing systems, such as radars and buoys.

 

The area of responsibility includes the American Meteorological eastern and central North Pacific. NOAA experts expect the eastern Pacific hurricane season will be active too close to the average.
The probability of this prediction is 50%. With a probability of 30% is possible activity below normal, and 20% of the estimated probability that the season will be more active than in the long-term average.

With a probability of 70% expected to emerge from 12 to 18 storms, who will get the name. Of them from 5 to 9 storms may become hurricanes, and from 2 to 5 can achieve higher categories
— From third to fifth on the Saffir-Simpson scale. On average in the region of the World Ocean, on 15 storms, eight of them become hurricanes, four of which reach their development category 3 and above.

In developing the forecasts take into account the main factors that have an opposite effect on the activity of tropical cyclogenesis — increased wind shear in the lower half of the troposphere, the overwhelming activity from 1995, and the possibility of development of El Niño in the season, to be associated with higher water temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific and reduced wind shear, which in turn can lead to an increase in hurricane activity.

In the northeast Pacific Ocean have noted earlier than usual, and the active principle of the season. Expected output of the first hurricane of the season, "Bud" on the coast of Mexico, which has already issued a storm warning. Most (85%) of hurricanes forming in this part of the world's oceans move west into the open ocean. 2.3 can impact on the coast of the continent — Mexico (most often) and Central America.

In center of the North Pacific Ocean hurricane season is forecast NOAA, will less active,
than the norm. The probability of such a forecast is 50%, with a 30% activity can be near normal, and the likelihood. That the season will be more active noma — 20%. Expected education 2.4 Tropical cyclones in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. The norm is 4-5, including tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes.

This forecast is based on the long-period, the continuing decline of tropical cyclogenesis in the Pacific Ocean, which began in 1995, and neutral conditions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, which is celebrated in the tropical Pacific.

Despite the forecast of low activity of the hurricane season in this part of the world's oceans, meteorologists are a further reminder that we always have to be prepared to meet this formidable element and know how to react to it. Seasonal forecast does not provide specific hurricanes, their origin, characteristics and the likely impact on the islands and the coast.

Source: meteoinfo.ru.

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