In 2011, Russian arms exports could exceed $ 12 billion


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In 2011, Russian arms exports could exceed $ 12 billion in 2012, shipments will not drop
TSAMTO, December 23. In 2011, global exports of weapons and military equipment will be identified, according to TSAMTO, 70.2 billion dollars. The share of Russia in total world arms exports will increase significantly in 2011, and in the short term.

The total value of the portfolio of orders for the next three years is $ 36 billion, but that figure could easily change in a large, and in the smaller side. At year-end order book of the Russian military-industrial complex could be between 35 to 38 billion.

That is, Russia, for several years, consistently holds the second place in the world in the export of arms, ahead of France, more than 2 times.

The presented estimation of the market in 2011 is preliminary. The calculation was performed according to the declared schedules for the supply of weapons.

At the moment, most of the announced for 2011 deliveries of defense products has been confirmed (80%). At the same time, as part of the announced delivery of official supporting data for the actual transfer of arms not yet available. Adjustment of the final volume of exports for the financial year in the future (on the experience of previous years) is in the direction of reducing the volume of deliveries. For example, according to preliminary data for 2010, the volume of world arms exports amounted to 71.7 billion dollars. In the final analysis TSAMTO refined by 2010 the volume of world exports amounted to 57.8 billion dollars (a decrease of 13.9 billion dollars). This is due to the fact that some of the planned supply is carried on the timing, number of programs canceled or reduced in volume. Also, sometimes there is a failure of the customer to have the products delivered. For a number of delivery programs official information arrives very late. All of these points require clarification and detail, which takes about six months after the end of the calendar year.

As a preliminary matter it should be noted that the expected decline in the final of world exports in 2011 will be significantly lower than in 2010

Such a good result for 2011 due to the fact that a large number of arms deliveries during the global economic crisis that began in 2008, was transferred on terms. A significant portion of these supplies was implemented in 2010 and 2011. In 2012, according to the delivery schedule, the volume of world exports of weapons and military equipment currently projected at just over $ 65 billion.

According to preliminary data, the volume of military exports to the United States in 2011 will amount to 28.76 billion dollars, or 41% of total world exports of defense products in 2012 (based on existing contracts), exports are projected to total 25.58 billion dollars (39.3 %). It should be noted that both the United States and in other countries data for 2012 are the minimum amounts (in case if there is no fault on the already signed contracts), because by entering into short-term contracts, the final figure for 2012 will be higher.

Second place in the TSAMTO for 2011 is Russia — 11.29 billion dollars, or 16.1% of the global supply (forecast for 2012 — 11.3 billion dollars, or 17.3%). In counting on Russia (and other countries) are included only identified the delivery of major conventional weapons. Work on the service, repair, spare parts supply and small contracts for which information is fragmentary or not available at all, are not included in the calculation. For most of the world's major arms suppliers to this "unaccounted" segment is about 3 to 5%. For Russia, this figure is significantly higher (12-15%), due to the specific contract in the segment of the supply of spare parts, service and repair. Estimated, this volume for 2011 will be between 1.2 to $ 1.5 billion and significantly exceeds the possible "short supply" for the main categories of weapons. According to TSAMTO, the final result for Russia in 2011 will exceed 11.5 billion dollars, and subject to the delivery schedules for the most part of the declared programs on major conventional weapons can approach or even exceed the sum of 12 billion dollars. This result is attained when the end of the year most major deliverable of programs, including the transfer of the Indian Navy nuclear submarine K-152 "Nerpa" Project 971U "Pike-B", 16 MiG-29K/KUB supply the Indian Navy under the first contract, the transfer to Algeria all 16 Yak-130UBS and a number of other programs, primarily with India and Algeria.

To its credit, Russia should be noted that the high results achieved in 2011 with almost complete loss of the market of Iran and Libya complete loss of the market.

Third place in 2011 by France — 5.02 billion dollars, or 7.2% of total world supply (forecast for 2012 — 5.07 billion dollars, 7.8%).

The following places in the top ten occupy
4. Germany — 4.38 billion dollars, 6.2% (2012 — 4.21 billion dollars, 6.5%)
5. United Kingdom — 3,570,000,000 dollars, 5.1% (2012 — 3.05 billion dollars, 4.7%)
6. Italy — 2.59 billion dollars, 3.7% (2012 — 2.81 billion dollars, 4.3%)
7. Israel — 2.53 billion dollars, 3.6% (2012 — 2.58 billion dollars, 4.0%)
8. Spain — 2.26 billion dollars, 3.2% (2012 — 1.33 billion dollars, 2.1%)
9. Sweden — 2.03 billion dollars, 2.9% (2012 — 1.38 billion dollars, 2.1%)
10.Kitay — 1.23 billion dollars, 1.7% (2012 — 1.51 billion dollars, 2.3%).


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