Scientists: Accurate short-term earthquake prediction and efficient — really

Seismologists say that it is impossible to solve the problem of accurate determination of the three main parameters of a future earthquake. However, the reason for this in the "Platonic" approach to the genesis of earthquakes.

Seismologists tend closer to the sites of the future epicenter, but "face to face" can not see and judge correctly. Physicists who study the cosmos, astronomers, statisticians use the gravitational connection planets, but do not reach the opening mechanism of the impact of these forces on the future epicenter earthquake.

In the Haifa lab after a long period of research, this relationship was discovered and found mathematical formulas depending of time, place and intensity of the precursors to the place by force, with the start and end of the corresponding aftershocks of the earthquake.

How to put it on Einat Aharonov (inst. Weizmann), author of the first to find the mathematical relationship between the precursor and an earthquake. (Minutes of the Knesset of Israel on earthquake warning. 2005)

Seismologists and biologists have often turned to the help of animals, with the hope that they can predict earthquakes. Typically, this reaction is associated with painful sensations in animals infrasound. This explains the anomalous behavior of individuals. However, "of an average animal" hard to see such a reaction.

According to studies behavioral anomalies of individual animals, the author (geophysicist Alexander Jagodin) found a mathematical relationship between the period of time the reaction the animal and the start time of the subsequent earthquake, depending on the distance between the animal and the epicenter of the earthquake.

Correlation processing of these values indicate the presence of infrasonic wave that moves from the periphery to the site of the future epicenter of the earthquake. These data were presented in the Knesset in 2005 and have been approved by experts.

The author has created a sensor for detecting surface infrasonic waves and made a continuous record of the signal in two places, located at a distance of 5 km from each other to overcome the technical local noise.

Entries for both stations were identical with slight shift of the peaks in the time schedule.

The dependence of the difference in arrival time of the waves and the start time of the earthquake jolts appropriate distance from the sensor to the epicenter of this earthquake, given the correlation over 0.99. This figure represents a mathematical formula-dependence of these parameters.

The author interpreted the results of the measurements, as measurements of the gravity-seismic wave front moves in the direction of the future epicenter of the earthquake.

Seismologists have periodically "stumbled" on the signals that are interpreted as "trigger earthquakes." Author also found a direct correlation of the amplitude of this wave with a magnitude corresponding to a future earthquake, it was found that the wave carries tremendous energy.

Suffice it to mention a few examples that have seen everything, but did not find the connection that has been proved by the author:

  • The vibration of the bridge in Volgograd and the destruction of the bridge in Adygea — it took a wave that has created earthquake Vanuatu (7.5 magnitude).
  • Resonant oscillations in the Suez Canal, amounting to a surface wave magnitude of 4 showed resonance and passing gravitational seismic waves created by a catastrophic earthquake in Japan in three weeks.

Such striking examples are not always visible, so as to hit this zone in resonance structures having a length responsive to resonance.

This wave is called the wave of the author Kozyrev-Jagodina (KaY-wave) By author's name and the names of the great Russian astronomer — NA Kozyrev, who discovered the relationship of the tectonic activity of the Earth and the Moon, which is important in the genesis of earthquakes and the formation of this wave.


This made it possible to use the station with said sensors for determining the direction of the front KaY-wave. Crossing the direction of the wave vectors on a map and provides a point of the future location of the epicenter of the earthquake.

Knowing the time of the advent of the peaks of the signal wave and their coordinates as well — the velocity of the wave is easy to calculate the arrival time of the wave of the future to the point of the epicenter of the earthquake and the start time of the earthquake. At the peak of real and appropriate follow earthquakes constructed calibration graph of the amplitude of the peak due to the sensor and the magnitude of the earthquake. Thus, the author gets a full set of required parameters of the future long before the earthquake tremors.

He was a member of the discovery. Cor. RAS AV Nikolaev in 2006, wrote that it is the foundation of a new theory in predicting earthquakes.

On the basis of these studies, even in the period of the first author was able to test the predictions provide timely rescue precision prediction second shock of the earthquake in Haiti in 2009, in time give forum members Italy warning time again a strong push in L'Aquila. In those dark days of the author of L'Aquila come posts on the forum: "All your predictions come true. On the morning of April 8, you guessed 4-5 in the morning, and it was around 6:30, so the difference is not large. "," Thank you for the information you provide to us! "

The recent earthquake Iran and China (April 16-17) was predicted by the author in a letter to the Academy of Sciences for a few days (April 13) to within a few hours.

February 23, 2011 on the basis of resonance phenomena in the Suez Canal zone, the author called the Chairman of the Department of Emergency Situations Dr. Avi Shapira and told him that in two or three weeks in the Pacific possible catastrophic earthquake.

February 24 author reported the same to the report in the museum Technion.

March 7 gravitationally seismic wave passed through the station in Haifa and Nesher and went to the east. The amplitude of this wave foreshadowed more than 8 magnitude earthquake.

Messages about the progress of the front of this wave with the March 8, 2011 by sending a Russian Emergencies Ministry …

The last entry was not sent because, after it was written, there was a message of seismologists that the earthquake — has begun.

In 2012, the main examination was made possible practical applications of discoveries, theories and equipment for a specific prediction of earthquakes.

During the six months examination was done 20 earthquake prediction in the "online".

All the earthquakes were predicted correctly. Therefore, the expert review — and on opening, and on the theory, and the predictions — great.

Expert Council officially declared:

"… The table comparing the calculated data and actual measurements showed remarkable coincidence that go beyond the random values …. (Indicating the right position of the theory of the method) … is of undoubted interest predictions "on-line" of earthquakes in Chile, Turkey and Iran. FOLLOW seismology data confirm the predictions made by … Based on the data presented Expert Council considers it important to continue creating modules stations … as the foundation of the future (international) network of earthquake prediction by the complex, using monitoring data KaY-wave … "

Thus, the Expert Council of RAS on the seismic hazard in the world for the first time confirmed the possibility of accurate and rapid short-term earthquake prediction.
Description is made in accordance with PCT patents:


Best regards.
Alexander Jagodin.





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