In response to European sanctions Iranian administration threatened to block shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, which represent one of the major oil artery of the world. Through this strait the ships go by from the Persian Gulf, Europe, supplying more than 40 percent of all hydrocarbons. Ability to block shipping in Iran totally real, as military the potential of this Islamic country is quite large. Navy countries represented countless small vessels with which to fight a large South American aircraft carriers will be very difficult. In addition, the borders of Iran and provided with an anti-missile missile system, through which can be destroyed by a large naval targets. Not inferior to the navy and the defense system of the country, providing protection from the air invasion. In the implementation of its own threats Iran has already begun on the teachings of the blockade of the Strait. In the middle of December of last year brought the military government military forces in the area and the Strait of deliberately staged military maneuvers.
Acts Iran infuriated not only the Yankees, and the French government and other European countries have declared that the arena of political confrontation can not be the international means of communication, because these actions do risk the well-being of the entire world community. At a joint forum between Israel and the United States have been defined border crossing for which the Iranian authorities would be tantamount to the beginning of the armed conflict and provide the basis for an open coming.
With the consent of the European Union taciturn Americans already sent in strait one of the largest nuclear aircraft carriers, with the title "John C. Stenis." But the real danger of military action on the ground Iran U.S. will need to bring to the region more than 5 units such technology. The aircraft carrier will not be able to resist as the overlap of the strait, because they do not have the technical ability to fight the "mosquito" fleet Ahmadinejad. Despite this, the placement of the military forces of the U.S. Navy in the Strait of Hormuz worry for the Iranian authorities and the transition from threats to action unlikely. Numerous angry expression and the dangers of the military control of Iran confirms anxious mood in the ruling elite and the growing tensions inside the country.
In essence, active military clashes are not profitable, neither the U.S. nor Iran, as both she and the other country may be adversely affected by such conflict. U.S. is now forced to bear the enormous costs of maintaining troops in Afghanistan because additional costs associated with the Iranian war will be perceived by South American citizens very badly. In addition, a lot of money has been spent by the government on the South American war in Iraq and the decision of problems with the withdrawal of troops from that country. Despite the significant advantage in military terms, the U.S. is facing fierce resistance that has brought significant losses in the middle of the personnel. The significant fact is the fact that Iran is a strategic ally of China, able to render assistance in stark opposition. The promotion is likely to have, and Syria. The South American government is no longer a time to get involved in military programs from adventurous, thanks to the zeal of its own oil tycoons to take the key hydrocarbon deposits international significance. But this policy has led to the aggravation of the U.S. terrorist anger also important municipal embezzlement, resulting in a hell of external debt rose, and the financial system on the verge of collapse. Discontent growing fast, and another military campaign may end sad for the ruling elite.
Iran is also not interested enough in the war, because the entire financial system is based on oil exports. Overlap at least 1 channel, in this case, the euro will lead to bad old economic consequences and dilemmas in a social environment. In addition, naikrupneyshy oil producer in the world has its hydrocarbon processing system, because obliged to purchase fuel from foreign partners. If in the course of the war will be closed channel supply of gasoline and other petrochemical products likely traffic jams. The war in the area of the country entirely likely, as the U.S. has a strong military, including the Air Munitions. But Iran's nuclear facilities are dispersed and well fortified in the country, because if the invasion does occur confrontation will be long and exhausting. Iran has a massive military capability because the enemy is unsafe for the United States. Israel is unlikely to be able to provide any support to the South American forces, because in order to ferry the air force he will need to arrange refueling, it will not agree on any one government in the region. Do not ignore the support of China, which is interested in the preservation of the sovereignty of Iran and is his ally.
Least of all EU lusts of military conflict, because this particular region of the country suffer from the disruption of oil supplies. As a result, the overlap Strait dramatically increase global prices for "black gold" that destabilizes the economy and cause dire consequences.
So Makar, open armed actions are not profitable either side of the conflict, except for American oil companies. The U.S. policy is focused first on weakening Iran economically, and power methods are not the last and very desirable option exposure.