Russian Defense: Do dreams become reality?

Russian Defense: Do dreams become reality?

DIC becomes funnel, which may involve a significant portion of the industrial economy
The role of the military-industrial complex in the Russian economy and domestic policy has been receiving outlines the main thoroughfare. Of course, the rate on the development of the defense understood Putin, no more and no less than the method for upgrading the industrial potential of. Maybe that campaign promise — «twenty trillion to the twentieth year in the defense industry ‘remains a promise, but a strong inclination budget expenditure in this direction is already a reality. According to the Ministry of Finance, the budget expenditures for the «National Defense» in 2013 increased by 25.8% compared with 2012. By the way, this is the background on a downward trend since spending in health, education, culture and cinematography, social policy, and in the chapters of the state economy and national issues.

According to the report of the Institute of the Stockholm international peace research problems (SIPRI), in 2011 Our homeland has become the third in the world in military spending and re-programm. Russian military budget in 2011 amounted to 71.9 billion. dollars (an increase of more than 9%), ahead of English (62.7 billion. dollars) and French (62.5 billion. dollars). Naturally, the list of favorites remain as before the United States (711 billion. Dollars) and China (143 billion. Dollars), but the return of in the «troika» of favorites — an important signal having a current foreign policy dimension. If defense spending in Russia will continue to grow at a pace and in the future, then three years later the Russian army and defense industry will be able to implement the most significant since the Soviet collapse applets rearmament. For example, in 2014 Russian military budget fails Strength half.

On the other hand — the classic oil and gas sources of funding are not growing as rapidly as costs and new ones arise. Such pace of spending may prove unfeasible for deficit-free budget within strategy. Only a portion of military spending may be covered by export contracts.

But then what counts Putin? Hard to say how realistic was the defense industrial strategy, described before the presidential elections (federal motivated DIC development programm 2011-2020), and there was already foreseen allocation of $ 3 trillion. rub. military plants for reconstruction. Funds mostly have to go (and already are) for the modernization of equipment which is depreciated at many enterprises achieves 70%.

In principle, this means small, taking into account today’s political ambitions and appetites industry. Because besides the modernization due to internal reserves will need co-operation with external partners, otherwise the backlog can not be avoided. This means in-1’s, the need to connect external investment (maybe government loans), in-2, though the need for procurement of new technologies not only in Russia, and in the world (greetings from Minister Serdyukov ), in-3, constant struggle for the expansion of the markets of military products. It all over again as heavy foreign policy task to be solved by the Foreign Ministry together, Russian corporations and intelligence …

Defense industry is essentially the funnel, which can be pulled evenly significant part of the industrial economy of. Naturally, the return of Soviet military-industrial machine is unlikely to be, well, this is not necessary. Pretty is the fact that this sphere may be embodied in practice the formula of «sovereign democracy.»

How? In 1-x, in the defense sector and in related industries (which is hundreds of companies) employed people is considered no less than in education and health. In-2, there is a possibility of a real state control while accessing personal business in several areas at the intersection of military and civilian production. B-3, this branch of the more technologically advanced and in some areas pulls the whole economy (say, the development of the ICT sector — is not only selling cell phones, and it is the creation of programs, networks, satellite navigation, special equipment, etc. ). B-4, not counting a promising business, as has been shown, is a fundamental element of attraction allies. B-5-x, let us remember these studies Levada Center’s analysis of the number of people who have passports and actually going abroad the former Soviet Union: 82% of Russians do not have a passport; 78% have never been abroad at all. Here we find a resource for political manipulation is very appropriate and well-known kind of — intimidate the population threats external geopolitical environment.

So Makar, we painted a picture partially closed kvazimilitaristskogo country. How would a WTO member, the principal party of global processes and discussions type of Davos, with pro-Western groups exposure in white house and the Kremlin, etc. And actually very independent from external access international subject, cleverly organizing themselves around conflict and very dissimilar partners, but with close super-power systems. Whether to call a post-Soviet Russia and its allies neo-Soviet alliance of sovereign democracy, liberal empire — is only a matter of stylistic preferences. The main thing is that such a scenario is seen as worth the trouble: he understood the elite, not forgotten population, moreover, survived the mass of experts on the implementation of this sharpened political profile.

Alexander V. Karavaev — Deputy Director General of the Information Analytical Center of Moscow State University

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