Russian scientists have created a model for the calculation of seismic hazard

In Russia it is the first model of this kind, which can be used to predict the effects of earthquakes in specific areas of the city.


Scientists from the Center for Geophysical Research Vladikavkaz Scientific Centre RAS-based REC "Geoengineering" looking for answers to questions about what will be the nature and extent of the devastation caused by the earthquake in a particular area

What factors influence the effects of the earthquake? This question is posed to science every time when assessing the devastation provoked by a powerful shift of the crust. Thus, the Niigata earthquake in Japan in 1964 gave scientists an idea of the possible soil liquefaction — a phenomenon whose registration is still physically not strictly defined. The largest in the history of the American continent Michoakanskoe earthquake shook himself Mexico in 1985, revealed that the forecasts consequences of this kind of natural disaster should take into account the influence of a thick layer of soil, up to 100 meters, and not only the 15-20-foot section of the upper part. After the 1988 earthquake, scientists have concluded that the extent of the damage caused, in addition to a large magnitude, and even the coincidence of the natural frequencies of vibration of buildings typical high-rise building and vibration frequencies of powerful ground layer up to 200-300 meters, the underlying Leninakan city. Scientists REC "Geoengineering" created on the basis of the Center of Geophysical Research Vladikavkaz Scientific Center of Russian Academy of Sciences are looking for answers to questions about what will be the nature and extent of the destruction caused by earthquakes in a certain area, in particular in Russia's North Caucasus. They analyzed data on the impact of earth tremors in the region, collected by individual participants in 1970, 1990 and 2010, and based on the information created a model of seismic hazard North Ossetian capital of Vladikavkaz.

More than 20% of the area of Vladikavkaz can be destroyed by a severe earthquake — the conclusion reached by researchers.

In Russia it is the first model of this kind, which can be used to predict the effects of earthquakes in specific areas of the city. At its core — designed in the same Center instrumental calculation method, the essence of which is to use strong motion database, registered in various parts of the world and include a detailed description of the soil conditions of the site (geotechnical and hydrogeological features of the thickness and topography).

The work focused on detailed seismic zoning and obtain probabilistic maps in the scale of 1:200 000

Evaluation of the seismic effect is produced using digital elevation data directly into GIS technology (GIS — Geographic Information System, is a modern computer technology for mapping and analysis of real-world objects, current and projected developments and events).

According to the study a map of seismic zoning, in which the regions with the expected intensity of the devastation 7, 8 and 9 points, which occupy 14%, 65% and 21% of the area of the city, respectively. Within each area there are a variety of objects — residential and office buildings, schools, hospitals, each in its own way vulnerable.

"There are maps of general zoning of the scale 1:8 000 000 and smaller, which traditionally was the Institute of Physics of the Earth. O. Schmidt. They are required to plan, for example, the development and even the construction of major cities or important industries throughout the country — says the scientific director of the project, the director of the Center of Geophysical Research Professor Vladislav Zaalishvili. — In contrast, our work focused on detailed seismic zoning and obtain probabilistic maps in the scale of 1:200 000. But it's not just the scale. We take into account the regional seismic Faults, let's say, for the territory of the republic or to any entity of the Russian Federation are updating seismogenic structures and, based on the use of modern scientific technology to build a more detailed map of the specific area. These maps for the first time we were in North Ossetia. In addition, on the basis of these probability maps for the first time we have made probabilistic seismic zoning map in the scale of 1:10 000, which, as noted above, can take into account the effect of soil conditions on the expected intensity of earthquakes. "

Work was supported by the Federal Program "Research and scientific-pedagogical personnel of innovative Russia for 2009-2013".

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