Team improved method for predicting hurricanes Facts
Researchers from North Carolina State University have developed a new method for forecasting hurricane activity, which is 15% more accurate than the previously used technology. Scientists believe that armed with the new method, and meteorological and other interested organizations will be able to make more accurate and detailed forecasts. This in turn will make the hurricane season is not so unexpected and dangerous.
Traditional models predicting seasonal hurricane activity is always the basis for taking classical statistical methods using historical data. But since the hurricanes have a huge number of determining factors, starting and ending with the air temperature humidity prediction using statistics often have a large error.
Correct to consider what factors influence the formation and development of a hurricane in a given time in a given location. In addition, the 60-year history of statistics on hurricanes more than enough for a qualitative prediction. A new method for predicting evaluates historical information for each variable factor in each of the locations and all the time. Next, calculate the most repeated combinations of factors to model hurricane activity this season. For example, take a group of factors is found only in high hurricane activity, and the other — only in extreme storms.
Defining factors of the leading group, a meteorologist with the program developed a model to the current season. Given the most likely factor model can point to 80% of high activity, 15% of normal activity, and 5% lower activity of the approaching storm, which immediately encourage local residents to observe all safety precautions and be on the alert for the entire season.
For each area, the United States has its own definition of levels of the active season. Thus, for the North Atlantic coast under high activity mean of eight hurricanes in a season, the norm for the Eastern United States — 5-7 stormy episodes, low activity — it is 4 or less hurricane season. The new method has an accuracy of 80%, while the old ones were accurate only 65%. With the new capabilities also tracks hurricanes will become more accurate as the data about the strength of hurricanes. With the more recent prediction will be possible to determine more precisely the effect of climate change on hurricane activity.