Why am I convinced that Israel stormed Iran in a few weeks

This summer is a feeling naizloveschee in August 1914. In the Middle East, the Arab Spring has led to a change of tyranny, but did not come to replace Western-style democracy, and the "Muslim Brotherhood." Plainclothes war raging in Syria threatens to spill over into Lebanon and Jordan — in fact, the war between Iran and Saudi Arabia for dominance in the region.

At the same time, somewhere in the background is sluggish crisis over Iran's stubborn desire to acquire nuclear weapon.

Clearly, if the ayatollahs will have a nuclear bomb, and other countries in the region — Egypt, Saudi and Turkey will do the same to counter Iranian hegemony.

Why am I convinced that Israel attacks Iran in a few weeks
Syrian Liberation Army fighters are exchanged fire with government troops in Aleppo. Bloody plainclothes war threatens to spill over into Lebanon and Jordan

For many months, the international community discusses the question of how dangerous a nuclear Iran might represent, and first for his own arch-enemy — Israel, which Iran has vowed to "wipe out".

As a result, Israel launched its brutal business rhetoric and threats that led to the imposition of stringent America and Europe trade and monetary sanctions on Iran. Israel at the same time conducted several undercover operations to destroy Iranian scientists associated with the nuclear applets.

Time passes and it becomes natural that imposed sanctions on Iran are not effective — it seems that Israel completely lost patience and did not trust anyone else for their security.

This week, Alon Ben-David, well indoctrinated military correspondent of the Israeli Channel 10, said his country is "closer than ever" to a military strike on Iran. He noted also that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is serious storm Iran before the presidential election on November 6 in America, to which there are only 11 weeks.

This assumption is wound chilling thoughts of a wider war in the region with the involvement in it of America. Here, in the West experience of Iraq and Afghanistan has taught us one lesson, as it is not safe to invade other countries. For its part, the Iranians do not do anything to calm the international public opinion about their nuclear ambitions.

Why am I convinced that Israel attacks Iran in a few weeks
Military correspondent Alon Ben-David argues that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wants Iran to storm likely before the U.S. presidential elections in November

Almost every day Iranians boast new military capabilities: high-speed boats (made on the basis of English Bradston Tour), improved Fateh-110 missile, which can hit a South American base in the region, and two U.S. carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf.

In the event of an Israeli attack Iran plans to use the southern Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah for retaliation. Iranian weapons, including at least 10 massive missiles "Scud", were delivered to Hezbollah through Syria, vpribavok to already available in Hezbollah's arsenal of more than 50,000 missiles capable of hitting Israel and around Sotk hidden in fortified villages. The Iranians have repeatedly proclaimed their unnatural hatred of Israel and Jews in general to. Just last week, the Supreme Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that Israel would soon "disappear" while President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad berated Israel "cancer."

Why am I convinced that Israel attacks Iran in a few weeksWhy am I convinced that Israel attacks Iran in a few weeks

Sinking into the depths of the gall-Semitism, Ahmadinejad stated: "The Zionists are the main prerequisite for disasters and misfortunes of the world's population in the last 2000 years, and particularly in the last four centuries." Because Zionism as during appeared about 100 years ago, it seems targeted attacks against Jews in general. Iranian The Supreme Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for "disappearance" of Israel, while President Ahmadinedazhad calls it a "cancer." Not surprisingly, because the tension in Israeli society is very high — especially after the ministerial calculations, which in the case of warriors from Iran to Israel will fall to 100 rockets every day, causing the death of 500 people.

Why am I convinced that Israel attacks Iran in a few weeks

Half of the Israeli population is at home masks, the system alerts the missile attack through SMS signals were installed and tested. In the underground car park of the Ministry of Defence 60 seats were cleaned and prepared for use as a shelter.

The Israeli military put their trust that the system "metal dome" will be able to intercept most of the rockets and shells fired by Hezbollah, while the $ 1.2 billion system of Arrow (Arrow), manned interceptor missiles with radar-guided intercept Iranian missiles Shahab-3, capable of carrying a warhead of 1000 pounds per length of 800 km. During the tests, "Boom" successfully intercepted single warhead, but whether it will be able to cope with let's say the 30th rockets with warheads personal guidance?

Why am I convinced that Israel attacks Iran in a few weeks

The reason for all this one — defiance of Iran's crude contract on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons, signed by him in 1970, and his Huge efforts to get the bomb, and ultimately, it is working nuclear arsenal. Naturally, there is a difference when holding a loaded gun and when it is disassembled on the table.

In practice, the West needs to firmly put to rest allegations of Iran's peaceful
nuclear program there — and that, along with its large supplies of oil and gas. Iran already has the Bushehr reactor, built by Russia, and another on the heavy water reactor in Arak, in the west of Iran.

But there are two hidden factory in the center of Iran: Natanz and Fords, hidden away deep in the mountains near the holy town of Qum. Fully perfectly well that they are both fully loaded with uranium enrichment and possibly for use in an atomic bomb. Excellent it is also clear that the plant in Parchin, near Tehran, Iran tests fuses for nuclear warheads. But it is unclear whether Tehran would be able to make these devices are quite small-sized to pack and carry a warhead to the target. Many past missile tests have shown their low reliability.

Interestingly, in contrast to the representation of the general public, the South American intelligence agency's approach to the assessment of Iranian applets, namely, at which step it is with very great care. The reason for this lies in the agencies themselves reputation tarnished errors in the assessment of Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction in 2003.

Yet, the Iranian threat to peace in the region is very high. Prerequisites why Iran is eager to bomb are ordinary — in many years Persia was a sovereign empire — hegemony in the Middle East. After 1979, when the Shah was overthrown, located at the head of the country's revolutionary Islamic government sees its historic purpose, like Communist China in the past to spread radical Shiite doctrine in depth and breadth. It is trying to become a leading player in the region bolshennom, with his Arab monarchies to submission.

Because international sanctions against Iran, imposed in 2006, becoming more serious. They have caused a wave of inflation in the country. Even the beloved television soap operas in which the family sit down for a unique dinner, were taken off the air — most of the audience can not allow myself to even such a "luxury." "Luxury" there was even a chicken — worth it bounced three times.

Why am I convinced that Israel attacks Iran in a few weeks
Iranian warships are participating in the parade near the Strait of Hormuz in southern Iran. Iranians boast new high-speed boats, created to destroy enemy ships

Iran tried to barter, exchanging oil for food — but international traders cheated them a couple of times. Pakistan, for example, asked for the cost of $ 312 per ton of wheat, while the global cost — $ 224, and India in general tried to palm off contaminated grain.

Why am I convinced that Israel attacks Iran in a few weeks

Iran's oil exports fell from everyday 4 to less than 3 million barrels a day, because the Asian and European buyers have turned away from him, and Iranian tankers lost their insurance and are required to idle in ports.

Even the danger of Iran to block the Strait of Hormuz — the most important transport artery oil trade, have lost their sharpness. Kuwait and Saudi Arabia repaired and put into operation an old oil pipelines, makes it easy to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. In addition, Saudi Arabia continues to produce oil in record amounts, resulting in a substantial decrease in prices.

But Iran and had some success. He was able to get around some monetary sanctions, using the mean and unscrupulous partners such as Commerzbank, RBS and Standard Chartered. These organizations have allowed Iran to carry concealed cash transactions, without specifying the source of ongoing amounts.

But the activities of these banks were opened, and they were severely punished by South American financial authorities by imposing multi-million dollar fines and the risk of excluding them from Wall Street.

But Iran and do not give up your loaf. Take, for example, the case of the sample bypass sanctions, masquerading as a company for the production of toys from China. One day a beautiful little plant in Seattle, producing the so-referred to as alloy steel — very light but sturdy, has received an order from a Chinese company for the production of toys. The requested steel, 20 tons, the Chinese are going to use for the production of children's slides in a public park.

But U.S. intelligence agents, posing as representatives of the plant, were able to find out that in fact for this order was an Iranian named Parviz Khaki. His interests ranged well as on a precision machine tools, nickel alloys, vacuum pumps and mass spectrographs. The latter are often used to measure the characteristics of uranium fluoride. It became evident that the failed deal was part of an effort to ensure the programs from the enrichment of uranium.

Specifically, these criteria constant evasions, the Washington administration is trying to find how effective sanctions and whether they can stop the Iranian nuclear program from. And an Israeli attack on Iran before the elections — the last thing you may want for yourself Barack Obama. In the end, after a severe fear, America resigned to the nuclear arsenals of India, Pakistan and North Korea.

In the best case, Obama would prefer to postpone the issue until after the Iranian elections, hoping to be elected to the presidency for another term. In contrast to Washington, the mood in Israel is even more militant. Israeli favorites are convinced that they linger for several months, and Iran will be generally impervious to air attack from Israel. By the time the Ayatollah can hide an atomic weapon so deep under the ground, that Israel will not be able to kill him.

In addition, they believe that other measures vozdeystiya, such as diplomacy, cyber-attacks and the killing of nuclear scientists have been exhausted. Implementation of an attack on Iran, but will be incredibly difficult. This is not something that one bomb object, as with the reactor at Osirak, Iraq, in 1981.

Israeli F-15 and F-16 will have to fly for 3 hours to suppress the numerous goals that is at the limit of their abilities. The fleet of refueling aircraft will have to operate in the airspace of Iraq and Saudi Arabia (the latter is rumored to have promised to turn off at the time of surgery their air defense radars).

In Israeli society, too, there is no unity, and some voters may choose to impose on America with its unlimited air power. Iran in any case would retaliate, and only America can bring the case to the end and completely destroy the Iranian defense.
Not to be forgotten as the same, the South American fleet and strategic aircraft were actually used during the Iraq and Afghan companies — and there exists a pretty hot heads who want to practice in the face of future possible dangers in the Asia-Pacific region, coming from China.

You can actually take into account the inevitable blow Iran well as on the South American interests in the Persian Gulf, this possibility seems to secretly discusses the Israeli rule. But many in the Israeli army and intelligence services are called behavior management "hysteria" and that a bad attack on Iran will cause an even greater desire to acquire a nuclear weapon last. It should be taken also with a serious blow to Israel's international reputat
ion, threatening to reincarnate him an outcast for an attack on a sovereign country. Yet, in spite of everything, I am convinced that nothing could stop Israel. I am sure that Israel strike Iran before the U.S. elections, probably in October.

Iran's population did not find out anything until the moment when Israeli F-15 and F-16 will already be far beyond the Israeli air space, and I would be very surprised if Israel fails to take preventive measures against Hezbollah as an instrument of Iranian retaliation.
Chilling prospects of this magnitude likely anger will manifest the increasing involvement of huge and enormous regional states in a massive, long-term and uncontrollable war.

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