In the world expected a new wave of price increases for cereals

Russian authorities announced an embargo on the export of grain in supplements to crop failures in other exporting countries will cause major fluctuations in the commodity markets and trigger a direct threat to food security in the "third world", warn researchers from Maplecroft.

Russian experts believe that now is in the country of such problems are expected, but do not rule out that the next year will be empty coffers. In the case of a new crop failures have nothing to cover the shortage, according to RBC daily.

In the world expected a new wave of growth in grain prices, which directly threatens food security, countries of the "third world", said the study "Food Security Risk Index 2010" by Maplecroft.

Experts estimated the risks for the supply of basic foodstuffs for 163 countries, using 12 criteria, including the production and import of grain, GDP per capita and efficiency of the government. The greatest threat to Afghanistan and prone countries in Africa south of the Sahara. In general, from 50 countries 'risk zone' 36 in the African state. In the area of "low risk" traditionally prosperous countries: the whole Scandinavia, the U.S. and Germany.

Researchers have sounded the alarm, analyzing the effects of drought and fires in Russia and other natural disasters in the countries — exporters of grain. "The Russian embargo on grain exports plus reduction in harvest in Canada by almost a quarter due to flooding cause fluctuations in the commodity markets. This has a direct impact on food security in the most vulnerable countries, "- says the analyst Maplecroft Fiona Place.

The drought and fires that destroyed crops in Russia, prompting authorities to impose an embargo on grain exports from August 15 to December 31, 2010. "After that, it became clear that Russia — a major player in the global market. The impact on the price situation was instant — on the international stock exchanges prices immediately went up, "- said the expert of the Institute of Trade Policy HSE Alexander Portansky.

Last year, Russia exported 21 million tons of grain and among the three largest suppliers, but the embargo will lead to acceleration in prices, I'm sure the general director of the Institute of Agricultural Marketing Elena Turina. She recalls that the Agriculture Ministry has lowered forecasts for the crop to 60-65 million tonnes, which is 30-35 million tonnes less than last year, and in such a situation to talk about exporting is not necessary.

Food security — an important factor for investors concerned about the risks arising in the agricultural business, analysts Maplecroft. According to the president of Alyson Varhurst, investors eyes now fixed on China as one of the major countries — the "Custodian of food." However, food consumption in China is growing every year, and while the surplus is not quantitatively determined.

The researchers also did not rule out that the drought in Russia and floods in Pakistan in 2011 "will increase the risk of food security in these countries."

Russian experts are less pessimistic. According E.Tyurinoy size of the domestic market is 75 million tonnes, estimates of the beginning agricultural year are different, but on average 18-20 million tons Therefore, even if the harvest in 60 million tonnes in the country will 78-80 million tons of grain market resources.

"When consumed 75 million tons of Russian-sufficient, — the E.Tyurina. — But we must remember that some of the new crop is exported from the South and sold on the world market, so the next year we will come up empty bins — we will have no reserves. And this is a serious situation, as in the case of a bad harvest in the next year, we will have nothing to cover the deficit. "

Source:  Journal IDK

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