Malnourished and less likely to have to wash the Russians in the next year

The Ministry of Agriculture has estimated damages resulting AgroComplex summer drought. According to analysts, the effects of this natural anomaly we will experience a few years

The Ministry of Agriculture estimated the total damage at last caused the Russian agro-complex heat and drought. According to the calculations department, the direct costs of all the constituents associated with the vagaries of summer weather, totaled 41.6 billion rubles, while the number of affected regions to 43's. Most of all has got to the Volga, Urals, Southern and Central federal districts where the crop was lost in more than 13 million hectares. This means that 30% of fields planted with corn, remained empty.

Similar data is provided by the Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat), to track the progress of the harvest. According to the report of the Federal State Statistics Service, October 1, 2010 in Russia managed to collect 34.3% less grain than in the same period of 2009, and in the remaining three months of this difference can only increase. Moreover, compared with the previous year and decreased efficiency of processing of received raw material: in 2009, from a crop harvested per hectare, on average, 25.2 quintals of grain threshed, and this — only 19.5.

However, the Ministry of Agriculture forecast on total tax collections remain relatively optimistic and promises to 65-67 million tons of grain by the end of this year. Will it be enough to avoid shortages of bread and other products? Opinions on this vary widely. Someone said that our meal will be enough for bread and pasta, and to feed livestock, and someone thinks that the producers still zaderut prices, and even begin to carry grain abroad, thereby only exacerbating the deficit .

Even the farmers and manufacturers long been sounding the alarm, scaring consumers and asking for help from the state. For example, a month ago with a request to the government appealed Union of vegetable oils, which proposed a ban on exports of sunflower seeds from Russia. Like, this stuff themselves critically short supply, and hence export it abroad — is tantamount to theft.

Not an easy situation and "wop". While companies are working on the crop last year, so the price can hold, but in the next six months, the factory will start to use scarce grain-2010, which means roughly the spring of their products may grow by a factor of 1.5-2.

In addition, there may be enough not only loaves and pasta — the crops of sugar beet, vegetables, maize and sunflower as much poumenshilos this summer. One of potatoes harvested by early October, 34.2% less than in 2009, and the owners of vegetable farms were missing from last year's 10.2% rate. Although this segment of mass rise in prices has not yet begun (potatoes already experienced a surge in prices and is now more or less "settled down", and vegetables on the contrary fell 0.5-1%), experts do not expect a "price surprise" in the coming months .

— Rise in price of products can be observed even through the winter, and then food inflation will slow down, — the expert evaluation department "2K Audit — Business Consulting" Irina Vorobyov. — The list of products rising in price can be very high: it is meat and dairy products, cereals, vodka and vegetables.

A long-term effects of drought last we will feel more and in the next, and even in 2012, the year.

— Affected by drought management have to limit the sowing of winter crops, ie crops of 2011, even in the case of favorable weather conditions will be far from a record high in 2008 — said Vorobyov. And above all it concerns the suffering of buckwheat, so that crops have been reduced in the past year. And the vagaries of the weather only worsened the situation.

But that's not all. According to Vorobyov, "the consequences of the drought is not limited to the current rise in prices of products", and it looks like next year, Russians will have to not only adjust its product basket, but seriously think about saving water and electricity.

— Drought 2010 actualising the problem of shallowing of the rivers in the Volga region. In the coming years, the government will be forced to increase the cost of providing agricultural water resources, as required to build a modern system of irrigation. Rise in price of water will be reflected on all utility costs, — says the expert.

Source: AMF

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