Western politicians and the position of really silly, clarification of the German ambassador, according to which the supreme power in the Belarusian elections "wished the best way", and bad performers made "as usual", causes a lot of emotions and they are not very flattering for the sovereign Weiss. Comparison of previous statements that follow deal with Minsk will be determined by the results of elections, and today’s statement about the ability of the lifting of sanctions resemble funny story about a hare, which threatened that if he did not return the stolen bag, it will be like in past times. As it was in the last time? Yes stolen and not given.
The bitterness of these pictures is amplified to the same fact that a number of political forces participated or continued to participate in the elections to a large extent under the influence of western parades. Those who participated in the elections to the last in its calculations, also not prazdnichek, but those who did it, disobeying the West even worse. And those who have called for a boycott, it is doubly sad — in-1-x, as the company as such, failed. No, its organizers claim that just happened, but the fact is that the West does not share this idea and generally come from these causes in their own decisions is not going to, and it’s in-2-x, and-importantly.
In short, the West stupidly miscalculated? Well, something to justify the West can say. If current plans to normalize relations with the official Minsk really explained sincere confidence that the elections were a step 28 September to democracy, intellectual abilities Western politicians deserve compassion. But it is possible that it’s just the problem of language. Well is not accepted, politically incorrect at the moment in the West read the language of public interest and geapalityki. But this naming motives do not disappear. Desire for normalization can be caused by motives, very distant from the extent to which today’s Belarusian elections were a triumph of democracy.
What? So for example a sincere answer to the question — while today the West’s relations with Belarus will grow if the impact of the Russian Federation in Belarus? Once both logic and current political and economic experience give prompt positive response. And someone from this excellent?
"But then Lukashenko, apparently understands that for him it increased dependence in the long term — the coffin "- the reader will see -" Lukashenko must give it to the West to find his support, and not to throw the West to help him, zapamyatyvaya of its own principles. "
Well, if Lukashenko did not realize this threat, no courtship of the West (which began long enough, and became apparent after last year’s January oil "war") would not be in principle. But the fact, that dependence on Russia built up slowly. And if Lukashenko understand that salvation from the consequences of this dependence is necessary to make any concessions to the West may already be just too late. And not just for him, that is not a big setback, and Belarus too. Late to the same as it is unclear by what means and in what form will want to use this dependence postwar Our homeland. And about pre-war-it is not very known, but at the moment even more so.
But still there is one argument why the West is retreating from concrete principles that so zradnilasya Russian opposition. This argument concerns only the internal situation is, precisely, ways to influence it from the outside.
Normalization may actually be an instrument, a means of undermining manalitnastsi Belarusian peremptory system. How? Through the creation of the personal interests of the Belarusian peremptory European elite. It is worth recalling that facial sanctions imposed by the U.S. and the EU on many Belarusian officials, concerned not only ban on arrival, and the freezing of their financial assets, which are contained in the western monetary institutions. So much for it, quite a long time, "namarozili"? Oh look, that is not so. Suspect anything. And maybe not as much as so cleverly hidden, as well as not. But perfect it?
Communication between Belarus and Europe and have at the moment, but they relate in the main macro. Sale of petroleum products, potash and textiles, gas transit directly affect the personal interests rather small circle of influential people in Belarus. Well, imagine for yourself that by normalizing the circle such people greatly enhanced when there will be a fairly large range of Belarusians and the first people power, which can be a deterioration of relations with the West will mean absolutely certain personal real loss.
People in the area with the flags of the EU, inspired by European values — it’s wonderful. But people in the offices of government, inspired destiny equity in European banks — may be a more reliable way to Europe.
And what these funds will be in these banks? Well of course that as a joke — "well, where the people can be so much money?" It is clear that the popular, more precisely, that might be popular, but settled in the pockets of people’s "servants." But the question here is not whether they will go to the people, as read Misha S. unforgettable, "the process has begun," and that in which banks settle. If the Russian or Arabic — it’s bad. In western — excellent.
Obviously, such a scenario is not without risk. It is clear that the essence of it — growing dependence peremptory Belarusian elite from Europe on the front level. But with all this will appear, and the dependence of certain Western people from the Belarusian regime, and thus also on the front level. And these are not necessarily lyabisty will bother about the fate of Belarusian democracy.
But what are the other options? Many years of pressure, the sanctions — and tyscha people in the square. Well fine, 20 thousand, as it was in March 2006. And what does it change at all? Western governments are not many moral victories because they change the policy.
No, if the streets of Belarusian cities anxious crowd of hundreds of thousands of people, if the mass strike factory, if only nomenclature and thought about how to cross over to the side of tomorrow’s favorites — none of the Western representatives in the head would not come to rescue the Belarusian ruler and finding a diplomatic microscope signs "of democratic movements to the best."
But there is not one close. Because handy and policy change. And Microscope — for your own, for your own social thought. In fact if the Belarusian authorities are very happy as they are "thrown" gullible Westerners, it is vain. Western policy change clarifies the calculation, so cool as payment and those who consider solutions in Belarus. And who is right and who is better counted? And this pair, wait and see.
Tags: elections, west