Reason volatile area

Serbiya 2000, Georgia 2003, Ukraine 2004, Kyrgyzstan 2005 — a chain of this latest "Spring of Nations", each of the links which occurred specifically in such a scenario. Bad sample to repeat the experience these states Belarus, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, despite the reverse result, did not deny the moral conclusion — the area is always right.
But, as so often happens in history, principles raises doubts not a defeat but a victory. Exemplary in this respect was the experience of Kyrgyzstan. Well, "tulip" Kyrgyz revolution, which was accompanied by pogroms and generally inspired "velvet" which was quite rough, refers to the "orange" chain bolshennymi unguarded. But specifically action in Kyrgyzstan after the March 2005 release of two clearly identified trends.
First — that the leaders of the Revolution, the favorites of the people who stood in the squares and beaten by riot policemen in charge of the revolution days of getting power, very quickly throw the same charge by riot policemen on depression … who? People? So same people to power and brought new managers. And if not to the people, then who? All the same, as in the days of the beginning: the people in the square, young people, harangued, and selflessness.
A second trend is largely characterized by just Kyrgyzstan is that the area is, so to speak, unchanged policy institute. And the leaders of the Revolution, who were lucky enough less and even princes regime swept away by the revolution, swiftly enough to accept service area is not as divine magic, not as a moment of truth, as the obvious political technology.
Already zabugornye experts and advisers who several years ago inspired glitter colors "color" revolution, they say, that throw off a corrupt authoritarian regime was the right and proper thing, but when you need to build democracy, a substance which — compromises rather than square. And why listen to them, if their hands — such miraculous instrument, as the area?
Here it is necessary to clarify in what sense is a tool and development. Opponents of the Ukrainian Maidan Square Belarusian, Serbian revolution in 2000 did not tire and read during these events, and after that the reason — one in foreign money. That is, roughly speaking, nonsense, and the matter of rights area or not, it’s such a combat "antymaydanny" PR. In this case, the case of Ukraine, in 2004 that the whole "Orange" — it means working out, claimed the then-kuchmavskogo yanukovichavskaya power, and in the past year, in the midst of a parliamentary crisis, when Ukrainian Maidan were largely " blue and white "about Exchange component of this" natural "expression did not tire of repeating the" orange ".
But as they say Britons can take horse to water, you can not force him to drink. With an area — the same thing. In this case, summing up "horse to water" means one need not (although they obviously will not hurt), and political opportunities, and faith in the rightness of their own business favorites and more unselfish devotion to their fans. And yet it is necessary that there was a desire "stallion", that was part of the dissatisfaction of the people (not necessarily more) existing state of affairs. The combination of these 2-causes and is technology.
More severe than in the Asian Kyrgyzstan blows the myth area were deposited in the near future in Georgia and Armenia. Last year’s aggressive crackdown opposition rally in Tbilisi, today’s protests against the stolen or whether nyaskradenay opposition victory in the presidential election — déjà vu revolution "roses": again one side — people in the area, youth and selflessness on the other — dark series … Well then repeat. However, in today’s Georgian and, looking ahead, the Armenian elections in comparison with the past the area was a significant feature — the international observers, namely, the observers of the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions recognized the elections as generally appropriate democratic standards. But international observers as conductors "color revolutions" — is also another sample of combat "antymaydannaga" PR. In Serbia, in 2000, international observers did not exist, that did not prevent the victory of the revolution in Belarus in 2006, their conclusions about the disposition of the presidential elections was very critical that the success of the area is not secured. Likewise revolution "roses" and "orange" revolution occurred not because some foreign observers deemed insufficiently democratic elections. Legitimacy is dependent on its own society, and not from the estimates of foreigners.
A drama ended in Armenia and disaster is still not clear, complete. There bloodshed. At the same time, to evaluate who it is right and who is not, does not help the image of not only the events, completely similar to the past (on the one hand — the people in the square, the other … well, you are aware of), and the geopolitical approach. On Georgia could say that the use of force and probable features of the election procedure Misha Saakashvili obviously not decorate, but since it was he, not his opponents, is the right course of foreign policy, these shortcomings can be forgiven him. Concerning events in Armenia again I repeat — the bloody events — and it does not work. Who is it more the West, and who for Russia: whether Ter-Sargsyan Petrasyan, no ability to realize. Apavedna confrontation and the parties themselves, with all the rigidity of confrontation, and foreign observers, not behold the conflict in any foreign "hands" — neither Washington nor Moscow. And develops recollection that Yerevan, as well as the January Tbilisi, and before bishketskaya, area — signs of degeneration of the idea of "color" revolution with non-violent popular uprising against authoritarian rule in the form of apparent power struggle.
"But from what’s happening Tbilisi, Yerevan or Bishkek, elections in Belarus do not become more just, and power — the least repressive "- utter reader. Certainly not. But the cascade mechanism "color revolutions" in 2000-2005 years was, apart from the rest, and the power of example: in the minds of both people coming to the area in another country and the bureaucrat and riot police, was the image of the previous victorious revolution was thought that the area — it’s people, and because she is always right. And this one way or another act.
And now can (or will) affect the experience not only defeats the "color" revolutions, and degeneration of the idea itself.
Need something else. What? Well, I, unlike colleague Vitaly Tsygankova, even if you give me a motto president will not, enough with the Belarusian people such tests as Alexander Lukashenko. One can only remember the biblical — that you can not pour new wine into old wineskins.

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