United States withdrew their Ambassador to Belarus Karen Stewart for advice. Why not implement a plan to restore the official Minsk business with the West? Than to explain the U.S. position on the change of its own review of the Ambassador of Belarus? Why the European Union does not respond to the public at the Belarusian-American conflict?
Why not released Kozulin?
Valery Karbalevich"It seems that the Belarusian-American diplomatic conflict exacerbation after March 7th goes to zatuhannya. But the United States to review its own ambassador in Minsk indicates that the conflict develops. And the position of the United States — hard. From the interview of Deputy Assistant Secretary of State David Kramer Internet resource" Belarusian announcements "that the main point of controversy — the problem release Kozulin. turns out that the Belarusian authorities promised to release political prisoner and head in February, and later, after the funeral of his wife. Apparently, these plans really were. According to another meaningless release other political prisoners.
But, for sure, in this regard something broke. Kozulin has remained behind bars. As a result, there is an escalation of the Belarusian-American conflict. So vosprepyadstvovalo Belarusian authorities to implement its own plan to break the West? "
Igor Lyalkov"In an interview with Kramer focuses on the release Kozulin. This is the only question now is preventing start a real process of negotiation between the U.S. and Belarus.
Belarusian authorities have sought to fulfill his promise. Kozulin invited to emigrate to Germany. And he refused. Then release Kozulin indisputable basis of belief authorities would look as a manifestation of helplessness.
In addition, I think the representatives of law enforcement agencies insist that until March 25, Kozulin was not released. Maybe he would be released after March 25. But the likely reaction of the United States was not considered. Finally got what we got. "
Viktor Martinovich"The plan was good. Kozulin But it broke. This plan was designed for a policy of conventional type. He was offered release in exchange for emigration. Usually Belarusian politicians agree on this. But Kozulin refused to write a petition to Lukashenko and emigrate to Germany. He refused power play by the rules. ‘Cause plan and fell.
Currently release Kazulin are equally as safe until March 25, and after that date. Everyone thinks that after his release he starts to act vigorously and corrupt political stability. "
Why is the U.S. ambassador was recalled?
Karbalevich"The position of the U.S. State Department on the outside looks inconsistent. March 7, when the Belarusian Foreign Ministry recalled its own ambassador in Washington Khvostova and recommended Ms. Stewart to leave Minsk, State Department spokesman initially said that South American salted leaves, and later — that it remains in Minsk.
And after 5 days USA still recall his ambassador to Belarus Karen Stewart for advice. What is the reason such change of position on this issue? "
Lyalkov"In general, the review ambassador for consultations — it is quite commonplace in diplomatic practice in conflicts between states. On the diplomatic language, this means that a country that recalls ambassador for consultations, displeased with the development of relations with the state, where it was salted. U.S. stress that these consultations will be the short-term.
Why does the position of the State Department regarding the ambassador in Belarus has changed? Can be counted on softening of the Belarusian side.
Probable and that variant, the Belarusian side warned that if Ms. Stewart will not go away, there may be a provocation against the South American Embassy.
Because the United States with his latest decision not try to bring the situation to that of the state, after which development could spiral out of control and there is no way back. Because let passion subside. I think that this step does not lead to an escalation of the conflict, but on the contrary to him zatuhannya. "
Martinovic"I see no contradiction between the old position and the U.S. State Department today. Danger After Lukashenko" throw "of the South American Ambassador was right so that if the U.S. immediately withdrew Ms. Stewart on March 7, it would look as if the Belarusian authorities carried out their threat.
Because the U.S. behave like a superpower. In a statement, State Department spokesman said on March 7 that Ms. Stewart remains in Minsk until that time, "until we evaluate the situation." Now, after a pause, the ambassador was recalled for consultations. "
What is the reaction of the European Union on the Belarusian-American conflict?
Karbalevich"No public statements of officials of the European Union (EU) regarding the conflict was not. Does it preserve neutrality?"
Lyalkov"Let’s see the situation from the formal side. Occurs 2-conflict countries, none of which is not an EU member. Why the EU should respond to the public?
Maybe the EU and the U.S. is playing with Belarus in good and bad cop. But I think at the level of unofficial diplomatic consultations between the EU to bring its position Minsk. And I think that it is fundamentally indistinguishable from the U.S. position. By the way, the EU has recently expressed his opinion about the situation in Belarus in the European Parliament resolution.
I think if further situation in Belarus will not develop by democratization, the subsequent step the United States could be skhilenne EU to, to join the South American sanctions. It was then that Belarus will come languid times. Because I would not have believed this EU position neutrality. "
Martinovic"There are two types of diplomatic action. One type — it’s public statements. 2nd type — diplomatic consultations, which not many people know, is not yet announced their results.
I think the fact that the EU is silent, it means that at the moment there are some advice, maybe constituents: Belarus, EU, USA. Currently Belarusian municipal propaganda spekulyue that Tipo U.S. imposed sanctions against Belarus, that interfere with our friendship with Europe. Because, perhaps, will soon be the EU statement, which dot the "and".
Of course, at that moment, when the EU to join the South American sanctions "Belneftekhim" Belarus will fulfill all the requirements of the Western states. "
Tags: united states, Stewart, salting, conflict, diplomatic, Belarus