Belarusian-Russian affairs Reloaded

Gas in 2009 — for 200 bucks?
Is not the most significant statements of the Russian ambassador was a message that from next year Belarus will have to pay about $ 200 for a thousand cubic meters of Russian gas, and in 2011 — more than 400 bucks. With all this government comes in the forecast budget for the following year from the price of 140 dollars for a thousand cubic meters. Where did the $ 200 figure, as it is due?
Apparently, based on long salting agreement signed by "Gazprom" and the Government of Belarus in the last day of 2006. Official reports of the contract indicate that in 2008 the price of gas should reach 67% of the price on the European market in 2009 — 80%, in 2010 — 90%, in 2011 — reach the level of the average European price. This year the European average cost is about $ 300, so pay particular neighboring Poland, it follows that Belarus would have to pay 200 bucks for a thousand cubic meters already This year. In fact the cost in the first quarter was 119 bucks, and now to the end of the year — 128 bucks.
Why? Partly because the cost on Russian gas for Belarus is determined not so much formal transaction as informal political agreement. With their Minsk could slow the growth of prices under the contract, but salting RF reminded that formal dimensions are important, as well as growth in global gas prices, and policies in the region — "Gazprom" and this increases the cost of a large gas for Ukraine. Estimated Belarusian professionals owing to growth of gas prices at the moment the gap between it and the "political" price for Belarus — even more than was blessed 2002-2005. Russians want a slightly next year to reduce this gap.
Cost cheapest kind of gas
Belarus still than calculated for these goods? Discussion of political association in a practical way, does not seem to have been going for a long time. But then what?
Well in-1’s, all the same "Beltransgaz". By the way, on its own press conference sovereign salting reproached the Belarusian side for an additional charge of "Beltransgaz" the Belarusian budget. Sovereign Surikov fussing about this property, which is already partly Russian. He, however, admitted that the protests Russian shareholders, who have a quarter of the votes so far are simply ignored by the Belarusian side, but in 2010, "Gazprom" will receive half of the shares and ignore his wishes will be unreal.
And second, that can be a cheap price to pay for gas — it Belarusian privatization. Here the emperor salting was not sincere in dyplyamatsku giving Belarusians advice connect with RUSAVTO MAZ and KAMAZ, Belarusian sugar producers — with their Russian employees, "Beltransgaz" — work closely with "Gazprom".
Russian association of sugar producers salting filed as a condition of Belarusian producers greater access to the Russian market at the moment is limited quota hundreds of thousands of tons, and the demand for automobile association explained to the need to compete with foreign automakers. An option that Belarus can be profitable to work just with the latest, salting not read anything.
Alexander Surikov said that in Russia right configuration realized privatization law that have taken place and in Belarus, the Russian capital and the movement of the neighboring country has become wider with plans to expand even more. With all this salting even saw that he was aware of the Belarusian safely control, like that of privatization activity in Russian capital not to lose independence.
Reboot
Already, Russian Ministry of Trade and Economic Development has sent a note to the Belarusian side to which Belarus is incriminated in the implementation of restrictions on access to the Russian market of its own products. It turns out that yesterday’s statement of Ambassador and the current Russian demarche Ministry indicate that the new management of the Russian Federation (still new, although very similar on old) produces a new approach to relations with Belarus over the whole range of problems, in this "package" includes and complaints and suggestions, and danger. Indirectly, the same evidence and the strange statement by the Ambassador that neither Lukashenko nor Medvedev showed intrigued in a personal meeting during the CIS summit in St. Petsyarurgu. It can realize so that Moscow is preparing a serious conversation with the Belarusian manage later, according to Surikov late summer, because it is specifically about new approaches. And while Lukashenko kept at a distance, salting pretended not to realize the symbolic value that the new Russian President is not met at the CIS summit only with the coming ally own country.
Bomb did not return to Belarus
And finally, the latter, although the values may first. On its own press conference sovereign Surikov said Our homeland that will not have to Belarus its nuclear weapon, because it is contrary to international agreements. Last year the same Surikov vaguely hinted at the possibility of just such a scenario when it generated a resounding scandal statement refuted the chief diplomat Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, well salted himself later explains that its not realized. Currently sovereign Surikov mnogosmyslennyh statements did, but stressed that the anti-missile system "the same level" can be arranged in Belarus. "
This statement — to a certain extent the message to Washington that Moscow, although the construction of the South American antyraketnaga dissatisfied "shield" in Europe, but it will respond with restraint: your board will be in Belarus, in the worst case, our "shield" and less. Maybe it is a question of Belarusian army with new missiles "Iskander", as already discussed.
It turns out that Moscow at the moment, the other day a huge conversation with Minsk on a new relationship, lowers even hypothetically own military plans in Belarus, so as not to give the Belarusian side to bargain at the expense of these plans is something in the economy. Speaking of military cooperation, salting stressed that talk about the same missile "shield" in Belarus is dependent on the level of integration: "If we it mattersit within the union of the country, it is one level of the conversation, if different countries — a completely different "- said Surikov.
Formally speaking, the Federal Government — an alliance of various countries. But apparently, in Moscow believe that this is something a little more and it is possible that such a problem: two different countries or the Federal Government, Moscow put in front of Minsk and later, when negotiations begin on the adjustment of the entire system of bilateral relations.

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