I would venture to look full complete dunce in matters of the highest international politics, but I can not get rid of the issue of child — and what it still is, "the recognition of Parliament"? If my memory serves me, say, membership in the House of Representatives of the Parliamentary Assembly of the OSCE was restored in 2003 and addition time not interrupted. Is not this a confession? Maybe, I mean friendship Belarusian Parliament in the Council of Europe? But the Council of Europe does not accept the Parliament of Belarus and the Belarusian government, is another question entirely.
Besides, almost without exception, the elections in post-Soviet countries place cause Western observers speak out so that certain questions. Here, for example, last year the last elections to the State Duma, which Moscow is not even allowed OSCE observers, they are recognized western society or not? If not, what is the real meaning of this denial? Our homeland was like before the elections to the Council of Europe, and remains. Or, for example, Kazakhstan, where beautiful elections on party lists in parliament turned 0 opposition representatives. There has been a recognition? And if you do not recognize how much suffering this sovereign Nazarbayev?
It seems that all these discussions on the recognition / non-recognition based on false ideological position that the policy, and in the International including, reduces to the law and its protection. Come to a country OSCE observers, making the elections, which are held there, the democratic standard, such prakrustav bed and Western governments doing the same role that the highest performers verdict "justice": the proper election standards — open embrace, do not match — do not recognize with obscure, but not good for the country effects. Despite all the beauty of this picture, it has the tiny flaw that does not correspond to reality. Conclusions observers — an important, but far not the only factor that determines the attitude of Western states to order or any other country.
Example — well, that Kazakhstan, where elections are very exotic nor mm did not change the policy of the West towards this country. Or even more catchy — Libya. Normalization of relations with the West is in full swing, although Gaddafi made one and that abandoned nuclear projects and paid compensation for made them time attacks. Already there what his human rights and transparency of elections, it is better not to say, that NIGHT MODE sleep quietly. But it’s not about to accept the "Lion of the Desert" in the European Union. And on normalization. And with Belarus until it is specifically about the same.
And the problem of parliamentary elections — part of that conversation. But in what sense? In the sense that must be obvious progress compared with previous elections, that an indicator of this progress is, get there and how much opposition. This is — a political statement of the problem, these shifts can be really taken into account, together with other changes in the political system, for example, with the same release of prisoners. How to take? As he deems necessary to the West. Here it really is, not fabulous recognition / non-recognition.
"Well, the West, and especially this spineless Europe again betray us" — shudder vigilant reader. And they give us and swore. Promote democracy — well, so, at least promised. But throw all their resources to the liberation of Belarus — no, not promised and swore that not. So, own policies reached the West, Belarusian authorities made concessions. But this does not mean that continued pressure directly lead to a complete surrender to a complete collapse. This is at least a couple question.
It should also be borne in mind that from time to time we fixate on the very fact of the Belarusian situation. The West, which operates on the global geopolitical board, the planning horizon and seeing a bit wider. Well, fine, continue to press the West, and will happen, say, winter brand new oil and gas war, while the war with the latest Russia, with Russia after the Georgian war. Then those who currently loudest shouts "We demand the continuation of pressure on Minsk" will shout the loudest "West, save from the Russian bear." And who, by the way, save? Belarus without Lukashenka? And this is where? Or with Lukashenko? As the same pressure?
No, if the pressure Lukashenko quickly dropped, then everything would be simple and clear. But somehow it does not come out. And along the way there are such unpleasant problems.
In fact, it is very possible that the West will read messages from Minsk and a certain normalization of relations will. Again I repeat, for normalization, not the EU invite, not forgiving and not all will. And this, incidentally, can open new abilities for the opposition. But it may happen in the ancient joke.
Run the lab monkeys. There stands a palm tree on it — the banana. Monkeys starts shaking palm. Hypnotist makes passes: "Think, monkeys, think." Animal looks up, looks around, sees, is a stick, takes her and knocks her banana.
Further in the same situation model launch … Well, in the initial version — SB ensign. He also begins to shake the palm tree. "Think, Ensign, think" — makes passes hypnotist. Prapor raises its head: "And to think that here, you need to shake!"
Or maybe do not need? Perhaps with repetition, what happened yesterday and the day before yesterday is an achievable goal, it might be worth a look if there are some other options to achieve the same goal, can change the situation opens up the opportunity? Although maybe it says in vain, for perseverance and dedication — properties inherent far not only some of the former Russian Army military.