Who rules the sea, rules the land and

Who rules the sea, rules the land and
Need to return the Russian naval power in the Far East

Major role in the development of the Russian Far East region play maritime communications, which are practically the only way to bring it to the economic unity. Accordingly exceptional importance for the security of the Russian Federation from the eastern strategic direction has its Pacific Fleet.

The main task of the Pacific Fleet (PF) is a reflection of anger potential enemy with the seas and oceans. Besides the Pacific Fleet — the only means of ensuring the integrity of the entire grouping of the Armed Forces in the Far East and the ability to produce strategic and operational troop transport by sea.

Only three countries in the region have armed forces capable of making war danger of. This is the United States, Japan and China.

Credible threat

Now do RF and China are friendly disposition caused by coincidence of values ​​of the state of development of global and regional nature.

It makes no sense to consider the ability of anti-Tofa Chinese Navy and military-strategic point of view. With more than 7,000 kilometers of land borders of Russia and China, also the absolute advantages of Chinese ground forces in the number of military conflict between countries with 2 may be only continental. China is no need to risk his fleet, with a guaranteed opportunity to defeat the Army.

But Japan and the United States can accomplish anger against Russia in the Far East with only offshore destinations. Especially since that Tokyo than once showed readiness for suitable criteria to try to solve the problem of the northern territories by military force. Very topical in the light of prevailing in recent years, the negative trends in Russian-American relations and the task of deterrence American peril with ocean and sea areas in the Far East.

In this regard, assessment of abilities Tofa to ensure public safety RF purposefully spend considering naval potential U.S. and Land of the Rising Sun in the Pacific theater.

Because these countries are linked by a contract for military aid, also taking into account the missing Japanese fleet capacity for independent action against Russian successful, you need to consider the ability of Tofa in confrontation coalition of US-Japanese naval group, which can be enhanced by a limited number of Navy ships and aircraft other allied states in the region, namely Australia.

Japan has a fully modern naval forces, aimed at solving problems in a greater degree in the near sea zone. They include 16 fully modern and low-noise submarines built his four-helicopter destroyer, about 50 destroyers and guided-missile frigates, more than 30 mine-sweeping ships, 6 large (landing helicopter dock ships and tank landing) and about 70 small landing ships and boats, six missile boats, about 100 anti-aircraft and 90 helicopters land-based.

Naval force Land of the Rising Sun can be supported by tactical air forces of up to 100 aircraft.

More modern warships land of the rising sun are two-class helicopter destroyer «Hyuga» (practically light aircraft carriers), two destroyers ORP type «Atago» and four of the «Congo».

Besides ship of the Navy’s own Japan to conduct amphibious operations can use a significant amount of civilian vessels owners.

It can be assumed that the main course of action would be the Japanese Navy amphibious operation on Sakhalin-Kuril direction. Part of the task forces will be decided superiority in the Sea of ​​Japan and protect their own coasts and coastal communications.

On the American side of tofu can resist third and part of the 7th U.S. operational fleets.

Likely, judging by experience of the exercise U.S. and its allies against Tofa can be set up to 5 aircraft carriers, 30-40 missile cruisers, destroyers, guided missiles, destroyers and guided-missile frigates, 25 submarines, 50 amphibious ships of different classes, Forwarding Marine Division infantry, and 60 anti-submarine aircraft.

Also naval forces can be mobilized to 15 aircraft of strategic and tactical aircraft to 80 dollars.

Perhaps the main effort of the U.S. Navy will focus on liquidation force groupings Tofa in the ocean zone near Kamchatka and the Sea of ​​Japan (in collaboration with the Land of the Rising Sun Navy) with the following amphibious assault landing on the Kamchatka Peninsula.

Diagnosis disappointing

Chronic underfunding of the Russian Navy in the past 20 years, very bad impact on the condition of vessels, aircraft Tofa.

Now in its composition has 22 submarines and 50 surface ships. Aviation fleet includes 82 aircraft and 32 helicopters for various purposes.

Navy submarine force consists of three strategic missile submarines destination project 667BDR 5 missile submarines with cruise missiles and Project 949A, six multipurpose nuclear submarines of Project 971, and eight non-nuclear (diesel-electric) submarines of Project 877.

Base surface forces — one heavy nuclear missile cruiser project 1144.2, one Project 1164 missile cruiser, four huge anti-ship Project 1155, Project 956 four destroyers, four small missile ship projects 1234.1 1234.7 and eight small anti-submarine ships project 1124M, two marine, seven basis and three offshore trawlers and four huge amphibious ship project 775, and 11 missile boats.

Aircraft fleet of naval aviation Tofa consists of 30 MiG-31 aircraft 20 Marine attack aircraft Su-24 (according to other sources — Su-17M4), 9 distant ASW aircraft Tu-142M, 15 anti-IL-38 aircraft and 7 repeaters Tu-142MR.

According to military professionals, from 40 to 60 percent of the ship in need of repair (current, average, or severe) and for solving the problems are unfit for its intended purpose or suitable limited.

As part of coastal defense troops Tofa are two separate coastal missile and artillery brigades (average kitted missile systems — «Redoubt» and small — «Frontier» range), two separate coastal missile regiments, two separate coastal missile divisions (missile systems «Redoubt») three artillery battalions and four separate batteries of artillery, anti-aircraft missile regiment also, kitted S-300P.

Marines division includes (for redundancy) and a separate marine brigade.

Analysis hikes ships Tofa lets imagine that a number of combat-ready ships certainly distant sea and ocean areas can be attributed only Project 1164 missile cruiser and till 2 huge proekta1155 antisubmarine ships.

In the near-sea area may be ready for combat use Up to 2 small missile ships, up to 3 small anti-submarine ships, minesweepers to 6, till 2 huge amphibious ships and missile boats to 7.

Tofa of submarine forces in combat-ready condition will be possible for two or three missile submarines with cruise missiles, the same multi-purpose nuclear submarines and four or five submarines.

Assuming that the condition of the aircraft and helicopter fleet naval aviation approximately similar to what takes place in the Air Force, one can imagine that the number of serviceable aircraft comprising aviation Tofa 10-12 MiG-31, 8-10 Su-24 (Su or -17M4), two or three distant anti-aircraft Tu-142M, 7-8 anti-IL-38 and two or three aircraft Tu-142MR repeater.

To solve the problems of large surface combat groups possible opponent PAC can be supported by a distant aircraft, which is capable to allocate for this were part of the fleet of aircraft Tu-22M3 in an amount of up to 20 units.

Since the beginning of the war of the Pacific Fleet will begin to lead the interaction with the 11th Army Air Force and Air Defense, which is in the general direction of the coastal defense system will cover the base, basing points and naval forces in their own area of ​​responsibility towards the seaside.

Among the feeble sides Tofa defined features military-geographical criteria and the state of the ground infrastructure, should be highlighted:

1. Underdeveloped systems based, a significant portion of which has been lost in the process of «democratic reforms» of the last quarter century. It is very severely limited dispersal ability of the Navy increased the vulnerability of naval bases in general. In particular, seriously damaged airfield network, both military and civilian, that actually made impracticable dispersed basing aircraft fleet.

2. Feeble development of terrestrial communications network in the western continental direction, making it very difficult logistics operations Tofa, strategic and operational maneuver troops from the central regions of Russia.

3. Absence of the necessary land transport network between Kamchatka and Primorye. Basic communication, linking the two parts of the Far East Russian, is sea, which from the beginning of hostilities can be relatively simple broken blocking the straits off Sakhalin Island and the Kuril Islands. As a result, the Pacific Fleet will be split into two separate groups — Kamchatka and the seaside.

Reflection anger

Features based Tofa forces determine what base its Kamchatka groups make nuclear submarines and maritime — surface ships and non-nuclear submarines.

Accordingly, for military action in the areas adjacent to Kamchatka, can be formed:

grouping strike force of the oceanic zone to combat enemy aircraft carrier compound or other groups to its large surface ships in the composition (including accelerated commissioning of the ship structure, requiring repair) to 4 missile submarines with cruise missiles and Project 949A and 3-purpose nuclear submarines of Project 971, which can be supported by a regiment of planes distant aircraft (Tu-22M3) and up to 12 MiG-31;
grouping strike force of the coastal zone of Kamchatka and the Kuril till 2 naval strike groups on two units, also located on the coast of Kamchatka and the Kuril Islands of the coastal missile and artillery troops;
group antisubmarine forces coastal Kamchatka and the Sea of ​​Okhotsk in the composition till 2 multipurpose nuclear submarines of Project 971, and 5 submarines of Project 877, a naval search and strike group of small anti-submarine ships (two to three units), up to 7 remote ASW aircraft Tu-142M and 5 anti-IL-38.

In the Sea of ​​Japan can be made:

grouping strike force to attack surface ships as part of a naval battle group led by one or two missile cruisers, three or four battle groups of missile boats, marine regiment attack aircraft and located in Primorye and Sakhalin peninsula of the coastal missile and artillery troops;
group antisubmarine forces coastal Primorye and Sakhalin Island, consisting of up to 3 submarines of Project 877, 2-ship search and percussion groups of small anti-submarine ships (two to three units), up to 4 anti-IL-38.

In the case of sample Land of the Rising Sun, without the help of others to conduct an amphibious operation to seize the disputed Kuril Islands of the Pacific Fleet, using all his strength, with the highest probability will be able to disrupt even if preemptive air strike the Japanese Air Force airfields and bases on the peninsula Fri Sakhalin and Primorye .

Acting seaside and Kamchatka strike groups, PAC will be able to kill up to 30-50 percent of landing craft and disorganizing forces landing and support them. In collaboration with the Army Air Force and the coastal defense fleet gains advantages not allow the enemy to the landing area.

With all this PAC itself may suffer very tangible loss of up to 20-30 percent of surface ships and boats, submarines 15-20 percent and 30-40 percent of the Fleet Air Arm. Expended are major supplies of missile weapons. Reflecting the attempt to capture the part of the Russian countryside, PAC will lose a significant portion of its capacity.

But Japan is unlikely to venture without the help of others to speak out against the Russian Federation and attempted military takeover of the disputed Kuril Islands will take only the beginning of a military confrontation between the U.S. and Russia.

In this case, the military action is likely to start with massive air and missile strikes on air defense system and the main objects based Tofa as Kamchatka and in Primorye, as on ships at sea.

PAC deploying combat-ready forces in the areas of combat assignment, will be able to strike at the U.S. Navy ADR ocean zone east of Kamchatka and the forces of the enemy fleet in the Sea of ​​Japan.

In the process of fighting for the first 2-3 days of strength Tofa at best only able to weaken the U.S. ADR, destroying up to 20 percent of the warships of its composition and at least five to seven per cent submarines in Kamchatka direction and up to 15-20 percent of surface Ships and 10-15 percent of enemy submarines in the Sea of ​​Japan.

With all of this loss can make Tofa from 30-40 to 60-70 percent depending on the type of forces, then it will lose its value as a strategic formation.

Next opponent will be able to solve puzzles without interference operational assault landing on Kamchatka, the Kuril Islands and Sakhalin peninsula, strike with sea direction on the projects of the Armed Forces and the country’s economy.

So Makar in the existing part of the Pacific Fleet vsepolnotsenno not able to solve puzzles to protect the interests of the Russian Federation and the reflection of the military in the Far East anger.

What to do?

First you need to increment and return at least two or three times airfield network region.

Return the system based ship of the Tofa, increasing the number and capacity of distributed Fri basing and repair more than tripled.

Make land transport network linking Primorye and Kamchatka, with little required bandwidth and the ability to operate in all weather criteria.

Renovate the existing structure of the ship with bringing the number of combat-ready ships to 85-90 percent.

Increment the number of units to 15-20 atomic attack submarines and 20-25 units — non-nuclear.

To put into operation the heavy nuclear missile cruiser project 1144.2.

UDC type «Mistral» (since they forced the Russian Navy) bring to the Pacific Fleet, convert them into light aircraft carriers with 6-8 OHR aircraft Yak-41 and two or three helicopters Ka-31 AEW. Why make the creation of the Yak-41 or an equivalent.

Number of major classes of ships Tofa increment to 35-40 units by transferring from other fleets or construction of new ships.

Return as part of Tofa carrying Marine aircraft of more than 2-regiments of Tu-22M3, transferring them from the distant aircraft.

Increment of two to three times the number of fighter (first Kamchatka) and sea attack aircraft Tofa.

Such escalating naval strike forces and fighters will allow to solve the puzzle defeat AUS USA.

Fundamentally do better ability ASW aircraft Tofa, first by upgrading the existing fleet of Il-38, which at the present time can not beat perfectly with modern low-noise submarines.

Only a fundamental task is to build capacity reconnaissance aircraft, particularly in the ocean zone. Distant reconnaissance aircraft based on the Tu-22M3 or similar fleet need a minimum of 10-15 units, and Su-24MR — 15-20.

Implementation of all these measures will allow to fully protect the interests of the Russian Federation in the Far East. But, unfortunately, with the current trend in the Russian economy and politics of hope for the restoration of Russian naval power in the Far East remains.


Konstantin Sivkov, first vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical problems, Doctor of Military Sciences

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