Lukashenko dealings with the West: antecedents and consequences

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Drakakhrust"The election remains the main theme in the political life of the country. But we talk about it a bit later, but I suggest to start a conversation with a sensational statement by the Chairman of the Communist Party Sergei Kalyakin, made in an interview" Our field. "In her favorite Communist Party called for official recognition from Belarus South Ossetia and Abkhazia, because they, according to Kalyakina, "no worse than Kosovo Albanians." In addition, he noted that "our country acquired its independence in a rather weird way, when three people in the Bialowieza Forest signed an agreement on collapse of the USSR. "
Statements Sergei Kalyakin spawned vigorous debate in political circles and in the politically active part of society. Already there are plans to make other United Democratic Forces, not combined with carriers "such heretical views as to Kalyakina."
Here we should add that the management of Belarus, expressing many warm words to the address of, the independence of these 2-Georgian autonomies not recognized, at least for now. So went the Communist Party favorite, as it turns out not only against the majority of the opposition forces, and power. I would not want to turn the discussion into an analysis of the "individual case comrade Kalyakina SI." Therefore, I propose the following. Andrei and Denis express their worldview about Sergei expressions and their probable consequences, and after each performance Sergey fails to respond to our pochetaemym employees. "
 

Dynko"First I want to say that the present sample and the Communist Party Sergei Kalyakin as any pro-Russian politicians — it is definitely absurd and blatant politicking. Do not know what was behind the expression Kalyakina maybe his loyalty to the Leninist principle of the right of nations to self-determination can , a political pragmatism, but, in my opinion, his political

Pro-Russian politician in the Eastern European political field, as indicated by the experience of other states, and Belarus, at this stage of history has no chance of political success.
A. Dynko
 

opponents and rivals use its call for recognition of the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, to make him a pro-Russian style. Meanwhile, the pro-Russian politician has no chance to lead the democratic forces of Belarus. Moreover — the pro-Russian politician in the Eastern European political field, as indicated by the experience of other states, and Belarus, this step history has no chance of political success. "
Drakakhrust‘Sire Kalyakin, Andrew said that you will glue style pro-Russian politician. And that — is it so bad? I would note that Viktor Yanukovych, the favorite of Party of Regions, called precisely to the same, as called for you. When You will glue pro-Russian style — it will stop for you or help you? "

Kalyakin"It’s a storm in a teacup. There are people in the opposition, that at least some good reason to reformat the current composition of the United Democratic Forces, because there they are on the marginal position and can not no matter what influence. And here is used to Unfortunately, the anti-Russian card.
As for my position, I did not call anyone to do anything. I just said that appreciate the fact that our homeland has recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. And contrary to the charges, which are currently heard in my the address, I just did not put a swing independence of Belarus, I stated that Belarus became of strange to be independent in the criteria. If you remember, there was a referendum on it people spoke out against the Soviet collapse. But the three men signed the paper, and virtually day after the United States and other countries have recognized the Russian destruction of the Union and Belarus gained independence.
And I did not put this under oscillation. I read that if Belarus gained independence in such a weird way, the Belarusian people can not oppose that the independence of other nations received.

Anti-Russian policy is no chance also have in Belarus for any political future.
S. Kalyakin
 

And the fact that now someone is trying to hang me a shortcut that I — pro-Russian politician, I wish to say that I’ve never been anti-Russian politician. And I believe that anti-Russian policy is no chance also have in Belarus for any political future. Chances has probelorussky politician who will bother about, that Belarus and Belarusians have been better. And it can be when you save is not bad, too small, friendly and even allied relations with Russia, and with very tight integration with the EU. By the way, about this and they say smart European politics. "
Drakakhrust"Denis Melyantsou, and now I ask you to express their attitude to the statements Sergei Kalyakin and analyze its consequences."

Melyantsou"I wish to note that the call for recognition of the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia in an interview Kalyakina still was. Text I quote from the website" Nasha Niva ":
"The recognition of independence not only can be, and need. Belarus should also recognize the will of these peoples."
Coupled with the fact, in my opinion, with part of that statement, and you can accept. Indeed, with the Abkhaz asetyny perhaps no worse than Kosovo Albanians. But one thing when this conclusion comes from an analyst or a personal face, and an entirely different matter when it states policies or municipal activities. This case is seen as a manifestation of certain attachments and dependency created by the application that wants to or not. Statement by Sergei Ivanovich already caused severe differences in SLM. I fully admit that the United Democratic Forces no longer able to work in this format in which they are working at the moment.

Of course, that statement was aimed at Russian elite. Of course, that such a declaration would impose many restrictions on the possibility of future activity Kalyakina on westbound.
D. Melyantsou
 

Of course, that statement was aimed at Russian elite. Of course, that such a declaration would impose many restrictions on the possibility of future activity Kalyakina on westbound. Russian politicians, who want to bring to power in Belarus in subsequent elections the pro-Russian candidate, too, thought, because the specific support of in the war with Georgia completely adds to the popularity policies in the Belarusian political field. "
Kalyakin"I believe as a Democrat, that everyone can have their world and can express it. Moreover — should express it, and not one to think and read more. I currently think it’s right that was recognized the independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. impossible to approach so that yesterday we have recognized Kosovo, Abkhazia and we did not recognize, as we do not like, as in Kosovo, the United States behind it, and in Abkhazia and South Ossetia — Our homeland. should be general principles. When we recognize the right of nations to self-determination, we must recognize it. When we deny this, we must deny all this.
Second part — about whom I worked and how it can assist or destroy my relationship with politicians in the West. I just expressed my point of view and I think that no matter what is not affected, and Western and Eastern policy will always be read in Belarus with those who have something represents.
And as for how things will develop further action in the
UDF — smart policy now realize that it is necessary to unite all democratic forces in the struggle against dictatorship — not to fight for a specified future construction of Belarus or for geopolitical choice, but for the fact that the rule was generally obtained. Who does not think of this — working against the future of Belarus, works on the current regime. "
Drakakhrust"And now, still a little on the election. At the end of last week on its own BPF Sejm decided that all candidates nominated from the front, should withdraw their candidatures September 23, before the premature vote. This proposal was made at a meeting of the Political Council and the United Democratic forces, but she found majority support — Council decided to come back to the issue of September 21. One of the opponents frontovskoy proposal was Sergei Kalyakin. Question boycott, which was the subject of heated debate even first campaign, updated again. Which at the moment there are arguments for and against withdrawals, which will bring one or the other option? "
Melyantsou"Over the boycott there are several arguments. 1st — moral. Since opposition was not

Mass withdrawals opposition can not prevent the recognition of these elections. But far not the fact that it will achieve this by such actions.
D. Melyantsou
 

admitted to the commission, it is already at the moment you can read that the elections unfair and opaque. Because the opposition can not participate in this farce.
Second argument — the information, because the simultaneous withdrawal of opposition candidates and "naked" neighborhood will create good PR-effect, which can be reach the electorate.
Third argument — that the non-recognition of the elections. It’s no secret that a large part of European politicians have a desire to restore the case with Belarus and legitimize the regime. And it will be manufactured through the recognition of the election. That it came out, the opposition and was invited to participate in these elections. Mass withdrawals opposition can not prevent the recognition of these elections. But far not the fact that it will achieve this by such actions. If the boycott will not work universal, in other words, not all candidates from the opposition forces will be removed, the effect disappears too.
That West Europe can recognize elections transparent and fair if they will be part of the opposition to participate and the authorities do not any aggressive acts. "
Kalyakin"Well, in the 1-x, you must specify: boycott and withdrawal of candidates at the final step — it

If opposition candidates at the final step, the government is not useful to rig the elections. They allow international observers newsletters and to say "count themselves, citizens voted for whom."
S. Kalyakin
 

completely different political science and practical things. Now the United Democratic Forces, including BNF, can no longer boycott. The Boycott can read "Young Front" and "the Charter". That’s all. They immediately announced a boycott. SLM also took part in the elections, they were collecting signatures for their own candidates, they isolated people in the committee, she recorded their own candidates, they tried to appeal the denial of registration.
Now everything including BPF will agitate for their own candidates, according to the decision of the Diet BPF candidates of this party is meant to stay only on September 23, at the finish of the campaign.
That purposefully — to act or not? Question that in politics lead to a result, and that there is always a discussion. If it was different, then you would have always been a winner. There are arguments for and against the removal.
Incidentally, I note that the BNF has not taken a definitive decision on the removal of all the candidates. The decision of the Diet is the position that in some cases, candidates may apply to the management of Front and left to stand in their own surroundings. Stronger candidates frontage and go — this will be the "individual" cases.
As for the differences in the positions that were on the Political Council of the UDF, then they are in the future. When the front is curled August 30 that they will take their own candidates, the Political Council said that this decision can be taken on September 20, when there will be the political will. There is no contradiction between the decision of the Diet of the BPF and UDF Political Council.
As for the recognition or non-recognition, I hold a different point of view. I believe that the only role of the democratic forces in the campaign will allow international institution, including ODIHR, conclusions regarding compliance with OSCE standards: non-inclusion in the committee, the pressure on candidates, non-registration of the candidates — all this just gives arguments to not recognize the elections. And if it were not for the opposition in elections, I do not know what would have appealed the international community. Count on the fact that it is not a priori would recognize the election only because the opposition did not participate in them? Very controversial. If opposition candidates at the final step, the government is not useful to rig the elections. They allow international observers newsletters and to say "count themselves, citizens voted for whom." And will zvyshdemakratychny counting process. And people go to the polls, we know that they will lead to premature vote. "
Drakakhrust"Andrei Dynko on your eyes if you can somehow use the factor that power so peculiar pavyluchala own candidates that in case of withdrawal of opposition candidates will be very many districts uncontested?"
Dynko"Sovereign states Kaljakin truth when states that are very difficult to predict what political strategy

If the opposition Belarusian Vladimir Lenin ran, he would surely have chosen option withdrawals.
A. Dynko
 

more justified at this stage. As for the boycott, or role, say, the Polish opposition in the 1980s tried both ways — in some elections they participated on the other — called arrives. And the effect was controversial in each case. And in Belarus.
If the opposition Belarusian Vladimir Lenin ran, he would surely have chosen option withdrawals. RSDLP (b), which he led and participated in some of the royal election, and some did not participate … "
Drakakhrust"Andrew, I’m sorry, I’ll kill you. I do not remember the details of the" History of the Communist Party ", but remember that some options on the initiative of Lenin, the Bolsheviks boycotted, and later, when the Duma was elected and began to act, he wrote that boycotted vain and that it was necessary to participate in the elections. "
Dynko"I believe that at the moment would Lenin decided to take off. For some reason, we are not fully understood, there is a unique situation. Maybe due to perturbations in the administration, maybe even why, but they are not quite candidates navystavlyali . They had to put their own candidates rather on critical neighborhood where there are Kalyakin Lebedko strong candidates from the younger generation, say Yanukevich.

In my opinion, fine, if these elections are recognized. This — in the public interest of Belarus.
A. Dynko
 

If you believe the polls, 70% of Belarusians democracy, the presence of the opposition — this value. People may think that "strong hand" — this is fine, but coupled with the fact the opposition should be. And on this point 12 of 110 districts uncontested, and in the case of removal of the significant democratic candidates uncontested is the third part of districts. And this is no alternative — naisilneyshy signal that democratic forces can send voters a signal that d
emocracy threats normality in danger. If by themselves for themselves specifically Democrats can reach a few percent of the population of Belarus, then this method is not difficult, they can reach millions of people. And this makes the position of adherents removal candidates pretty cute. According to the latest as some people suggest the active script and want to impose their game.
Another caveat — legitimization or nelegitymizatsyya. I would have said that, in practical terms, this means that either faster or slower will go to Belarus Western investment. After formal recognition Lukashenkovtsy "violet". In my opinion, the removal of opposition candidates did not prevent the recognition of elections and the investment. David Merkel, a spokesman for the U.S. State Department, which after release Kozulin visited Belarus, said it is clear that the role of the non-participation of the opposition or independent recognition elections.
I pasprachayusya Kalyakin with the monarch. In my opinion, fine, if these elections are recognized. This — in the public interest of Belarus. Relief arrival of Western investment — also in the public interest of Belarus. And it is — an additional argument for the opposition: since our withdrawal might have an effect on people’s mood, but not threatened disruption normalization of Belarus-EU relations, we can do it. "
Drakakhrust‘Sire Kalyakin Well Andrew was not only offered a fascinating motivation withdrawals, and accused you of treason Leninist heritage. Well, I just can not help but give to you the right of reply. "
Kalyakin"Lenin — in itself for myself, I — in itself for itself. He did not always do right. And is not always won. So it is not quite correct to draw parallels between what happened long ago, and what is happening now. Though I liked the parallels — Lenin really regretted that the Bolsheviks did not participate in the elections to the Duma IV-.

Lenin — in itself for myself, I — in itself for itself.
S. Kalyakin
 

I almost completely agree with Andrew, namely the fact that the recognition of the election is essentially in the interests of Belarus. And I do not speak for the fact that the elections were not recognized by international society. I am for the fact that they have been recognized, but if it will be elections. But if it is not elections but a farce, a complete hoax, I believe that it is not necessary for the international community to accept them, because it’s more our razbestsits mode and they generally will not be considered with any whatsoever bounds of decency.
I also divide the two things — to improve relations with Western countries, the arrival of investments and the recognition of the election. In the elections, I would have tried two strategies. In the surrounding area you can experience some of the boycott strategy, although I’m not sure that our people respond so that we have no democracy and no nominee.
Now there are 12 districts where no nominee, where there is only one candidate from power, and a total of 30 districts where no candidate from the democratic forces. Last Politsovet SLM deciding to specifically in these neighborhoods to try to disrupt the elections through a no-show voters or experience to spend a huge propaganda work about the lack of democracy — what Andrew Dynko read.
But in those precincts where now there’s candidacy, while polar candidacy — in almost all the suburbs are a representative of the government and one representative of the democratic forces there, I think you can spend a good campaign. Not even in a good sense, a result which is in the final report, and good company policy — to try to win the de facto representatives of power. "
Drakakhrust"So in the end theme, maybe until and early, and maybe not. Release of political prisoners, Belarus’ position on South Ossetia and Abkhazia, statements by U.S. and European officials about changing things to Belarus — all testify to the highest possibility that after the elections, relations between Belarus and the West much swap that to a certain extent what happens is that it is the recognition of the regime. At last transfer Andrei Sannikov talked to him specifically what withdrawals opposition can prevent such a development. Well, let’s assume that it’s all did happen. prepyadstviya What this will generate and, conversely, what skills will open for the Belarusian society and for the Belarusian opposition? Andrew, what do you think? "
Dynko"In my opinion, if you talk about the overthrow of the regime, what many people dream of, it is clear that

If we talk about the overthrow of the regime, what many people dream of, it is clear that the arrival of Western investment in Belarus divert such a prospect.
A. Dynko
 

the arrival of Western investment in Belarus divert such a prospect. But it seems to me that the public interest in Belarus in this situation today is very fundamentally make the right choice of civilization. Indeed, in situations such as the one that appeared at the moment, after the conflict in Georgia, Russian imperialism after the transition to the active expansion, is a choice that will play and affect the lives of our civilization long years. Because I definitely believe that normalization of the relations with the EU and the U.S. in the public interest of Belarus. "
Drakakhrust‘Sire Kaljakin how you feel, what consequences this will have for the opposition, one of the favorites that you are. Now, when there are sanctions, there are limitations when an intensification of repression can complain to any members of the regime to contribute, that they were are listed as banned in Europe. And if you imagine for yourself, that relations between the West and Belarus are the same as, say, between the West and Kazakhstan, then complain about increased repression Westerners to say "We condole for you, sorry for that you are right. " But no penalties from the West will not. So it’s bad, you see? Or not? "
Kalyakin"Well, in the 1-x, not Belarus Kazakhstan, and Lukashenko is not Nazarbayev. Because such relations as Kazakhstan, Belarus under Lukashenko will not. U.S. and Europe have always stood for the fact that relations between Belarus and the West were dense . But Alexander G. has always been a kind of a unique idea to weld the gate to the ambassadorial residence in thrushes, which led to the aggravation of the situation.

Regardless of how the elections will take place, I will be a supporter of Belarus to the Council of Europe adopted.
S. Kalyakin
 

Western countries are very interested in improving relations, but not at any cost. Wait and see what comes out of a desire to make things better. It is unclear what surprises do lately Belarusian management. And the fact that it may make such surprises, all agree.
I believe that the arrival of Western investment, creating new jobs, while not from the country, and from the hands of private investors — which is great. People will become more free. People at the moment from time to time are afraid to engage in politics, as you may lose work in the country.
Regardless of how the elections will take place, I will be a supporter of Belarus to the Council of Europe adopted. From the fact that Belarus is not there, we spend more than power. You says — some complain. So now some really complain. And becoming a member of the Council of Europe, we find the tool in the form of Euro Court of Human Rights, whose decisions of mandatory country. Here we are in opposition need to reconsider the approach to membership of Belarus in the Council of Europe.
As for the point of sanctions, they may continue to be used as are used now. But certainly, that after the elections relations between the West and Belarus will swap in the best side. It is excellent for the authorities and the opposi
tion. There is no need to fear, it should be applauded. "
Drakakhrust"Denis, not so long ago," Our field "concept to leave your article in which you have proved the necessity of the normalization of relations. Did not you see the reverse side of this process? Either is possible that the government will take this normalization, as a carte blanche to do with the opposition anything. On the other hand, you can direct the attention that, say, all the plans boycott focus only on the external impact of the fact that, based on the West boycott accept certain decisions. And when normalizing have only the Belarusian people hope and influence.’s wild somehow, is not it? "
Melyantsou"As you saw right, all of these actions — and the recognition of the election and rejection Ossetia and

What is coming now Lukashenko regime from Moscow, the neighbor it to the West, and with all this principal, which is the mode.
D. Melyantsou

Abkhazia — is very related things. In my opinion, Lukashenko is now awaiting the West’s reaction to these elections, expects that the West recognizes them, and do not want to succumb to strong pressure from Moscow, which leads him to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and Ossetia, since much depends on this lot. If the West does not recognize the elections, it is likely that Lukashenko absolutely bursting with all sorts of things the West. This — the last test for him when he was obliged to release of bullpen own individual enemy and go for some other concessions in domestic politics.
On the other hand, if at the moment Lukashenko recognize Ossetia and Abkhazia, it immediately puts an end to the normalization of relations with the West and immediately shows and Europe, and the West nesamastoynasts Lukashenko. Then recover practice when communicating with through the capital Minsk switch. Moscow, Lukashenko litsezrev such slack and break his relations with the West, try once and forever tied to Belarus for yourself, for yourself padnachalivshy its foreign policy. In Minsk there will be no room for lyaviravannya. Such binding may occur through the restoration of the union construction, and through the introduction of Russian rubles, and this is a real threat of loss of independence.
Lukashenko understands this, and therefore suffer such terrible pressure from the East and does not recognize the Georgian autonomous resistance. Since Lukashenko now very intensively sends signals to the West that it does not recognize these Georgian autonomies, the West is very crucial. Now there is a consolidation of Eastern bloc countries, which are designed to withstand the upcoming Russian expansion, it is the usual "cordon sanitaire". Belarus can become part of it, and it increases the geopolitical importance of Belarus.
So the Lukashenko regime is now coming from Moscow, the neighbor it to the West, and with all this principal, which is the mode.
Recognition means for parliamentary elections in Belarus, in 1-x, the rejection of sanctions, including in European organizations and applets — European Neighbourhood Policy, the Eastern Partnership, the arrival of investment, privatization, the role of Western capital.
This will give more scope and standards of conduct. Well done and push for political reforms. Because I’ve been a hundred percent support Andrei Dynko, which states that the recognition of parliamentary elections — it is in favor of Belarus.
If we talk about the opposition in the elections criteria and normalization of relations with the West, then it will come quite languid times, as a monopoly on the business with the West end. And support — financial, diplomatic, moral — is also significantly reduced. It will be necessary to look for support within the country, to win voters, to work with people, build structures, to generate ideas — do what politicians usually do. And converted — evenly slowly — from political clubs and dissident groups in true party. It will be hard, but it will be immediately and health of the political opposition: strong structure will remain feeble and failed disappear. For the opposition, there is pros and cons, but for the Belarusian society strategically it will benefit. " Tags: elections, Kalyakin percent, Ossetia, Abkhazia

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