Required if Belarus foreign loans?

On Thursday, Alexander Lukashenko met with the management of Dutch bank «ABN Amro», which is going to give Belarus a loan of 500 million dollars.
For what Belarusian management seeks to attract external financial resources? Indeed whether the situation with money in the country is such a critical? A lot of success in the Belarusian authorities verbovanii foreign loans?
Either situation with money in the country is such a critical?
Valery Karbalevich: "Until this year, Small external debt (838 million dollars at the beginning of the year) were a source of pride, one of the propaganda trumps the Belarusian government.
Alexander Lukashenko has said many times that we were offered money and Soros, and the International monetary fund, but we did not take the principle, so as not to be dependent on external forces, as some of our neighbors.
But this year the situation has changed. While officials say the economic difficulties arising in connection with the new criteria of energy supply, which is overcome, we have a budget surplus, but the government frantically searches for foreign loans in Russia, China, Austria, Holland, Switzerland.
For What Belarusian management is ready to sacrifice principles? Whether the situation really is such a critical money? "
Yaroslav Romanchuk "critical state of the Belarusian economy can not see. But we need to make a plan of growth of gross domestic product by 10%. Due to the great disadvantage of foreign trade balance by the end of the year will be the lack of currency.
To get out of the situation, required or foreign investment or foreign loans. Since vkladyvatelny climate we bad investments do not go, it remains to borrow.
In Belarus, a good credit history, we did not have a default, large creditors have not "thrown". Because loans can give. But at a certain step usvoyut creditors, what you need debts do not receive funds, and assets.
There is a risk that loans will not be refunded. It is not excluded the process of nationalization accessories. Because foreign lenders playing roulette. But while there are potentially profitable ventures petrochemicals, then their eyes are burning. "
Alexander Kovalev: "In fact, by the end of 5 months, we have a budget surplus. But at the same time flows reverse the loss of capital companies. Because government funds not seek out in order to close the hole in the budget, but to save companies. Just not spending structural reforms. "
Karbalevich: "And why businesses can not get loans in Belarusian banks and seek out money abroad?"
Kovalev: "In the Belarusian banks no monetary base, to issue such number of credits. Because funds seek out abroad. Pay attention, Russian" VTB "gives credit" BAPB ", not the government."
Financial or psychological problem?
Karbalevich: "Not so long ago, during the mission of the new chairman of the Minsk Regional Executive Committee Lukashenko admitted that at the end of the last, the beginning this year was the force majeure situation, we threatened default. Although they say experts at that default in the full sense of the word could not be.
But the words of the head of state that the driving wheels were in panic. So, maybe the problem here is not financial, not financial and psychic? "
Romanchuk: "In economics, the monetary system of any country psychology plays an important role. Hold cash on psychology courses, speculative operations.
Lukashenko recognition of the danger of default is very indicative. For disk imaging of the drive wheels, in some moments late last and early this year, the State Bank did not have any reserves. The situation was really terrible. Hence the eagerness to get loans.
Many states, faced with such a situation got inflation, devaluation or default. Because the Belarusian authorities profitable situation when foreign loans takes no government, and our banks. And in case of a crisis would be zero bank, not the government.
Take this example, when the Russian "VTB" gives credit "BAPB." But those loans that are "Belagroprombank" produces agricultural entities can be considered political.
In the first months of this year, Belarus lured hundreds of millions of dollars of foreign loans guaranteed by the government. But where did they go? Since the beginning of the year increased storage supplies over 500 million bucks.
Nobody believes the number of bad loans. Number grows vkladyvatelnyh errors. And if the crisis comes, the authorities have a problem: either donate funds of depositors, or "throw" of foreign lenders. "
Karbalevich "But" Belagroprombank "- the bank is not personal, and municipal. Did the government will not respond to its debt in bankruptcy?"
Romanchuk: "If bankrutsitstsa municipal bank, it does not mean that the government should pay his debts machine. Everything is depending on whether the loan is guaranteed by the government."
Kovalev: "If you turn up than Belarus to be proud of in the economic policies of the last 10-15 years, it is that we did not take a lot of credit and not transferred nashyz problems for children.
But at the moment our businesses without credit is not competitive even in the domestic market, not to mention exports.
Foreign investors have a lot of enthusiasm to our company, and then I do not agree with the sovereign Romanchuk. For example, breweries ("Olivariya", "Source") seek out foreign investors. And those who wish to come to Belarus, but on certain criteria. "
Romanchuk: "They would come, but authorities did not agree to their terms."
Kovalev: "Come, even under adverse criteria. Now about psychology. When in 1994 the Office of the State Bank emerged from giper-inflation, it elected two anchors: the exchange rate of the ruble against the buck and the refinancing rate.
Since that time, these characteristics are guided all citizens and businesses, depazytaryi Belarusian banks.
If at the end of last year there was a crisis of oil and gas, the National Bank raised the refinancing rate and the injection made in the money market to restrain the ruble against the greenback. So in Belarus inflation — it’s not even a rise in prices in Belarusian rubles and ruble buck. It turned out that this figure plays the role of monetary indicators of health. "
What are the prospects verbovaniya foreign loans?
Karbalevich: "How to evaluate the successes of the Belarusian government verbovanii credits? It is not clear from the Russian loan of 1.5 billion dollars. 1 billion of Chinese investment, which many states have received quite a lot.
Nothing happened with the credit of the Austrian "Rayfayzenbanku", although his manager Lukashenko hurried even reward the Order.
But Russian "VTB" issues a loan of 1 billion rubles "BAPB." Dutch bank "ABN Amro", the management of which met yesterday Lukashenko, Belarus is going to give a loan of 500 million dollars. How can to comment on these results crotch? "
Romanchuk: "We hear a lot about the Arab funds Azerbaijani oil, Chinese, Iranian investments. But mostly it promises-trinkets.
Since vkladyvatelny bad climate, the loans are given only those foreign structures that have individual cases with leading bureaucrats Belarus.
In addition, we have no culture of using these loans. Where, for example, may invest "Belagroprombank" means "VTB"? In the construction of agro-towns?
"ABN Amro" will invest in something, to acquire oil and process it at our refineries and refined products.
If Belarus does not hold those transparent schemes, which are accepted in the world, you can expect corruption, kickbacks, bribes and other things. And it will pay for the population. Already electricity for our industry more than for companies in Poland, the Czech Republic and other neighbors.
Must make economic restructuring. Now extrabudgetary funding budget spending is 6% of gross domestic product. With such an additional burden on the shoulders of our economy will soon become uncompetitive on the Russian market. Because the Dutch do a very risky operation. "
Kovalev: "Especially in the success verbovanii no investment. Development experience of transition economies indicates that foreign investors come into the country only when internal resources are exhausted.
If Belarusian citizens had the opportunity to invest in Belarusian companies that paid dividends for the shares, we could do without foreign loans.
The second question. In particular, the last month in the money market of the country increases trade deficit money. Every day we buy more currency than sell approximately 10 million dollars. It is necessary to keep the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. "
Karbalevich "So makarom, if government took loans for insurance during the reforms, then they were politically and historically justified.
But in this case, instead of loans are taken to prevent reforms and reforms. They are taken in order to close the hole, save praestsi th electorate illusion of prosperity. A return funds have subsequent management or even to succeeding generations. "

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